收入与出境旅游率的非线性关系——基于门槛面板模型的实证证据

发布时间：2018-01-05 16:05

本文关键词：收入与出境旅游率的非线性关系——基于门槛面板模型的实证证据　出处：《旅游学刊》2014年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在各种有关出境旅游市场影响因素的研究中,收入水平与出境旅游的关系存在着显著的争议。文章判断二者之间存在着非线性关系,且因国家而异。该研究引入门槛回归模型,以世界95个国家和地区为研究总样本,并按照面积大小划分为3组,利用其1995~2011年的人均国民收入、出境旅游率、年龄结构、教育水平和就业水平数据,对收入和出境旅游率之间的相关关系进行了深入分析。研究发现:(1)各样本中,收入与出境旅游率均呈显著非线性相关。(2)样本不同,收入门槛值的数量和位置不同,促使出境旅游快速发展的收入门槛值也不同。说明国土面积对收入与出境旅游的关系具有潜在影响。(3)各控制变量总体上对出境旅游率具有正面影响。(4)中国出境旅游实际表现超过理论基准,处于快速超前发展的阶段。以上研究结果可以为一个国家或地区判定出境旅游的发展阶段及制定合适的旅游政策提供依据。
[Abstract]:Among the studies on the influencing factors of outbound tourism market, the relationship between income level and outbound tourism is obviously controversial, and the paper concludes that there is a nonlinear relationship between them. The threshold regression model was introduced into 95 countries and regions in the world and divided into 3 groups according to the size of the area. Using the data of per capita national income, outbound tourism rate, age structure, education level and employment level from 1995 to 2011. The relationship between income and outbound tourism rate is analyzed in depth. It is found that there are significant nonlinear correlation between income and outbound tourism rate in each sample. The number and location of the income threshold are different. The income threshold to promote the rapid development of outbound tourism is also different. It shows that land area has a potential impact on the relationship between income and outbound tourism. 4) the actual performance of China's outbound tourism exceeds the theoretical benchmark. The above research results can provide a basis for a country or region to judge the development stage of outbound tourism and to formulate appropriate tourism policies.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;中国社会科学院研究生院;
【分类号】：F592;F126;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言根据联合国世界旅游组织(United NationsWorld Tourism Organization,UNWTO)的最新数据,2013年世界各地共接待境外游客11亿人次,同比增长5%;2014年仍将是旅游产业大有发展的一年,各国接待境外游客人数将再次增加4到4.5个百分点;中国以近1亿人次出境旅游,成为世界第一

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