武汉市AQI与经济发展状况关系探究及预测

发布时间：2018-01-05 22:01

  本文关键词：武汉市AQI与经济发展状况关系探究及预测　出处：《华中师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： AQI 武汉市经济发展 因子分析 ARIMA SAS9.3

【摘要】：在工业化进程发展到如今地步的同时,“雾霾”成为街知巷闻、举国谈论的热词,空气质量指数,又称AQI,是定量描述空气质量状况的无量纲指数,它可以很好的衡量一个地区的空气污染水平。根据AQI的评价方法,AQI值越大,该地区空气污染的程度就越深。据统计,2014年,武汉市GDP达到10069.48亿元,迈入中国城市“万亿GDP俱乐部,居华中首位,15个副省级城市中位列第三。此外,2015年2月28日,中央文明委在人民大会堂正式授予武汉市“全国文明城市”称号。武汉在迅猛的发展经济和文化的同时,环境问题却不容乐观。本文通过因子分析的方法研究了武汉市2013年至2014年中十二个月的经济发展状况,对各月经济状况进行综合评价,然后通过武汉市从2014年3月到2014年10月这八个月的AQI值,利用相关分析模型,探索武汉市AQI与工业能力之间的关系。最后,建立ARIMA模型,利用武汉市391天来的AQI值进行短期预测,分析未来三十天AQI值的可能发展趋势。本文运用的统计分析软件为SAS9.3、SPSS17.0。通过因子分析方法给武汉各月的经济发展状况进行综合评分排名,武汉市从2013年9月到2014年10月(除开2014年1月和2月)这十二个月中,经济发展综合得分最高的是2013年12月,排名最低的是2014年3月。从相关分析的结果来看武汉市的AQI值与社会消费品零售总额大致呈正相关,即零售总额越大,居民消费热情越高,AQI值越高,大气污染程度也就越深。本文试图寻求一个时间序列模型来拟合武汉市AQI值随着时间推移的变动趋势,最终通过检验选定ARIMA(1,1,3)模型,得出未来三十天内的短期预测值。并且预测出武汉市2015年3月26日之后的未来30天内,空气质量指数AQI呈小幅平稳上升状态,未见其明显较大波动。希望此文可以用来作为政府政策施行、相关学术研究的一个参考,对治理雾霾具体政策施行迫在眉睫的大背景下,此文的结论有一定的意义。同时也希望我们的空气质量会越来越好。
[Abstract]:At the same time, as the industrialization process has reached its present stage, "haze" has become a hot word for the whole country, the air quality index, also known as AQI, which is a dimensionless index that quantitatively describes the air quality situation. It can be a good measure of air pollution levels in a region. The greater the AQI evaluation method, the deeper the level of air pollution in the region. According to statistics, 2014. Wuhan's GDP has reached one tillion six billion nine hundred and forty-eight million yuan, making it one of China's "trillion-#en1# clubs", ranking first in central China and third out of 15 sub-provincial cities. In February 28th 2015. Wuhan was officially awarded the title of "National civilized City" by the Central Commission of Civilization in the Great Hall of the People. Wuhan is developing its economy and culture at the same time. However, the environmental problem is not optimistic. This paper studies the economic development of Wuhan from 2013 to middle of 2014 by factor analysis method, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the economic situation of each month. Then through the AQI value of Wuhan from March 2014 to October 2014, using the correlation analysis model to explore the relationship between Wuhan AQI and industrial capability. Finally. The ARIMA model is established and short-term prediction is made by using the AQI value of Wuhan City in the past 391days, and the possible development trend of the AQI value in the next 30 days is analyzed. The statistical analysis software used in this paper is SAS9.3. SPSS 17.0. through the factor analysis method to Wuhan each month's economic development condition carries on the comprehensive score rank. From September 2013 to October 2014 (apart from January 2014 and #date鈪，

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