我国碳减排的成本和效益分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 18:18

本文关键词：我国碳减排的成本和效益分析　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球气候变暖和减少碳排放已经成为世界各国政府与公众持续关注的焦点,国际社会相继行动起来寻求解决之道。作为世界上最大的发展中国家和温室气体排放大国,对于发展低碳经济,我国政府始终都采取支持和赞同的态度,并且将具体的减排指标纳入到国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划之中。但是我国各地区由于发展阶段、经济结构以及能源消费结构的不同,其减排的经济成本和效益存在巨大差异。因此,对我国各地区的碳减排经济成本和综合效益进行估算,可以直观了解我国碳减排的潜力、特性和对我国的宏观经济影响,为我国实现减排目标制定宏观经济战略和能源规划,积极参与国际气候变化协商和谈判争取合理的权益提供科学的依据。首先,本文估算了我国各省区CO2排放量,将我国30个省市地区划分为9个经济区域,结合各地区经济发展水平和特点,分析了我国碳排放的区域性差异和原因。接着本文介绍了我国节能减排的主要政策和取得的成果,以及作为我国碳排放大户的电力行业减排的主要措施。又介绍了碳排放交易机制形成的原理、交易体系的迅速发展以及我国清洁发展机制项目(CDM)的发展情况。然后,本文基于方向性距离函数,采用非参数化方法和参数化方法分别估计了中国30个省、市地区2010年二氧化碳排放的影子价格,两种方法测算得到的结果不尽相同但变化趋势基本一致。结果发现,中国各地区碳排放的影子价格平均值每吨在21695.32元,生产效率较高、经济水平较高地区的影子价格的水平也较高,因此我国应该实行差异化的区域减排政策。最后,基于碳排放交易机制分析了我国碳减排的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益。结果发现,我国的CDM项目发展迅速,尤其在新能源和再生能源CDM项目上的减排潜力和经济效益的空间很大,但是碳交易市场还存在很多问题,我国应大力开发和引进CDM项目的同时建立统一的碳交易平台,完善碳交易机制。
[Abstract]:Global climate warming and reducing carbon emissions have become the focus of governments and the public all over the world. As the largest developing country and greenhouse gas emitter in the world, our government has always adopted the attitude of support and approval for the development of low-carbon economy. And the specific emission reduction targets into the national economy and social development in the medium and long term planning, but due to the development of different regions, economic structure and energy consumption structure is different. Therefore, to estimate the economic cost and comprehensive benefit of carbon abatement in various regions of China, we can intuitively understand the potential of carbon emission reduction in China. The characteristics and the macroeconomic impact on China provide a scientific basis for China to make macroeconomic strategy and energy planning to achieve the emission reduction targets and to actively participate in international climate change negotiations and negotiations for reasonable rights and interests. First of all, this paper estimates the CO2 emissions from provinces and regions in China, divides 30 provinces and cities into 9 economic regions, and combines the level and characteristics of economic development in each region. This paper analyzes the regional differences and causes of carbon emissions in China. Then this paper introduces the main policies and achievements of energy saving and emission reduction in China. As a major carbon emitter in China, the main measures of reducing carbon emissions in the power industry are also introduced. The formation of carbon emissions trading mechanism is also introduced. The rapid development of the trading system and the development of China's CDM project CDM. Then, based on the directional distance function, this paper estimates the shadow price of carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 in 30 provinces and cities in China by using non-parametric method and parameterized method. The results obtained by the two methods are different but the trend is basically the same. The results show that the average shadow price of carbon emissions in different regions of China is 21695.32 yuan per ton and the production efficiency is high. The level of shadow price is also higher in the areas with higher economic level, so our country should implement the policy of regional emission reduction. Finally, based on the carbon emissions trading mechanism, the economic, social and environmental benefits of carbon emission reduction in China are analyzed. The results show that CDM projects in China are developing rapidly. Especially in the new energy and renewable energy CDM project on the potential and economic benefits of emission reduction space is very large, but there are still many problems in the carbon trading market. China should vigorously develop and introduce CDM projects and establish a unified carbon trading platform and improve the carbon trading mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.5

【参考文献】