家庭结构与储蓄率U型之谜

发布时间：2018-01-07 01:15

本文关键词：家庭结构与储蓄率U型之谜　出处：《经济研究》2014年S1期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中国的家庭储蓄率与户主年龄呈现U型关系,这与生命周期理论预测的倒U型不符,被学术界称为"中国年龄—储蓄率之谜"。本文为其提供了一个解释:在生活成本高昂、养老体系不完善的情况下,低储蓄率的年轻人(老年人)倾向于选择与他们的中年父母(子女)居住在一起,这不仅拉低了中年户主家庭的储蓄率,还提高了其余独立居住的青年户主家庭和老年户主家庭的平均储蓄率,进而使得家庭储蓄率与户主年龄呈现出U型关系。实证研究发现,以家庭为研究对象时户主年龄—家庭储蓄率呈现稳健的U型关系;以个人为研究对象时个人年龄—个人储蓄率则呈现倒U型,与生命周期理论相符;居住成本越高,青年户主家庭的储蓄率越高;养老体系越不完善,老年户主家庭的储蓄率越高。本文的实证研究表明,家庭结构的内生选择是"年龄—储蓄率之谜"产生的重要原因。
[Abstract]:The household savings rate and the age of the householder China showed U type, inverted U type this prediction and the life cycle theory is inconsistent, academia was referred to as "China age - saving puzzle". This paper provides an explanation for it: in the high cost of living, the pension system is not perfect, low the savings rate of young people (aged) tend to choose their middle-aged parents (children) living together, it not only pulled the middle-aged households headed by the savings rate, but also improve the average savings remaining independent living young and elderly headed households headed households rate, thus making the household savings rate and the age of the householder present a U type relationship. The empirical study shows that the family as the research object, the household savings rate is the age of the householder U type relationship stable; the individual personal savings rate - age research object is inverted U type, consistent with the theory of life cycle; The higher the living cost is, the higher the savings rate of the younger household households. The more imperfect the pension system is, the higher the savings rate of the elderly households is. The empirical research shows that the endogenous selection of family structure is the important reason for the puzzle of "age savings rate".

【作者单位】：清华大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：自然科学青年基金和面上基金(项目编号:70903042;71373136)的资助
【分类号】：F126.1;F832.22
【正文快照】： —、弓I言根据生命周期理论(Modigliani and Brumberg,1954),居民储蓄率和年龄的关系应呈现倒U型,即中年人的储蓄率高、年轻人和老年人的储蓄率低。但有趣的是,ChamonPrasad(2010),Choukhmane et al.(2014)以及RosenzweigZhang(2014)都发现2000年以后中国家庭的储蓄率和户主

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