不同能源系统发展模式下的碳排放情景模拟分析

发布时间：2018-01-08 22:32

本文关键词：不同能源系统发展模式下的碳排放情景模拟分析　出处：《天津大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变化是21世纪最受关注的环境问题之一，而与能源系统有关的碳排放占据了非常重要的比例，在中国这样的新兴、快速发展的经济体中更是如此。近年来国内一次性能源消耗以远超GDP增速的年均增长率高速增加，使中国成为了世界上二氧化碳排放量最多的国家。为了探究中国能源系统的碳减排策略，我们认为有必要首先对该系统的发展、演化趋势及内部机制作深入、量化的研究，为将来能源结构的调整以及为应对气候变化而进行的努力提供参考。本文从微观动力学和宏观结构方面研究了能源系统结构模式的演化规律，通过运用广义信息熵原理探讨了能源系统的宏观结构形成和演变的动力学规律，形成了能源系统演化发展的新模型。从理论出发，本文发展了一套算法，，形成一个新的以严格理论为基础的复杂性科学数值模拟方法，借助Matlab平台，解决了复杂能源系统结构模式演化的模拟实现问题，并考察了中国能源系统在过去及未来三种不同发展模式下能耗的演变趋势。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the most talked about environmental issues in twenty-first Century, and related carbon emissions energy system occupies a very important proportion in China such emerging economies, the rapid development of even more so. In recent years the domestic disposable energy consumption more than the average annual growth rate of GDP growth and rapid increase in the Chinese become the carbon dioxide emissions of most countries in the world. In order to explore the Chinese energy system of carbon reduction strategy, we think it is necessary first to the development of the system, making the evolution trend and internal machine in-depth quantitative research, provide a reference for the future adjustment of energy structure and efforts to cope with climate change.
This paper study the evolution model of energy system structure from the micro and macro structure dynamics, by using the generalized information entropy principle discussed the dynamic evolution of the formation of macro structure and energy system, the formation of a new model of development and evolution of the energy system. From the view of theory, this paper develops a set of algorithms, a simulation method the new science of complexity theory based on strict numerical form, using Matlab platform to realize the simulation of complex model of energy system structure evolution, and the effects of the Chinese energy system in the past and future of three different development patterns under the trend of energy consumption.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.5;X24

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