陕西城镇化与第三产业发展互动关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 22:29

本文关键词：陕西城镇化与第三产业发展互动关系的实证研究　出处：《西北大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国家或区域经济发达的一个重要标志就是其城镇化水平,一般来说,城镇化水平与国家或区域经济发展水平正相关。随着我国经济发展水平的不断提高和城镇化的加速推进,第三产业作为第一、二产业的后续服务职能日益凸现出来,其在安置就业、增加农民收入、协调产业发展、完善城镇功能和统筹城乡发展等方面均发挥着重要作用。研究表明,当经济发展到一定水平,第三产业将取代第二产业成为城镇化发展的主要推动力,同时,城镇化水平的提高也影响第三产业的发展。当前,陕西省城镇化发展已经取得了相当大的成就,而第三产业的发展却平凡无奇甚至有下降态势,研究陕西省城镇化与第三产业发展的互动关系,对于促进陕西省第三产业良性发展,提高陕西省城镇化水平具有重要意义。本文以陕西省城镇化与第三产业发展的相关关系为研究对象,运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法,对陕西省的城镇化与第三产业现状进行了综述,根据2000-2011年陕西省城镇化率、第三产业占GDP的比重、第三产业就业人员占社会就业人员比重、第三产业增加值占GDP的比重、第三产业增加值增加比率的数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法对陕西省城镇化发展与第三产业发展的关联度进行定量分析。研究结果表明：陕西省城镇化发展有力地带动了第三产业从业人员比重的提高,第三产业从业人员的增多也是陕西省城镇化平稳高速发展的格兰杰原因；同时,陕西省第三产业增加值的快速增长极大地推动了城镇化发展,长期来看,城镇化对陕西省第三产业增加值增速的推动作用不明显,但短期内提高城镇化水平仍然对于刺激第三产业增加值增长速度有积极意义。本文在最后理论分析了城镇化与第三产业发展的相互制约关系,并立足陕西省的实际情况,初步提出完善相关制度及保障、重视第三产业发展、合理选择第三产业发展规模、完善城镇化的发展模式等政策建议。
[Abstract]:An important sign of a country or a region's economic development is its urbanization level, generally speaking. The level of urbanization is positively related to the level of national or regional economic development. With the continuous improvement of the level of economic development and the acceleration of urbanization, the tertiary industry as the first. The follow-up service function of the second industry is increasingly prominent, which plays an important role in the placement of employment, increasing the income of farmers, coordinating the development of industry, perfecting the functions of cities and towns and coordinating the development of urban and rural areas. When the economy develops to a certain level, the tertiary industry will replace the secondary industry as the main driving force of the urbanization development. At the same time, the improvement of the urbanization level will also affect the development of the tertiary industry. The development of urbanization in Shaanxi Province has made considerable achievements, but the development of the tertiary industry is not unusual or even has a declining trend, the interactive relationship between urbanization and the development of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province has been studied. It is of great significance to promote the healthy development of the tertiary industry and improve the urbanization level of Shaanxi Province. In this paper, the relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry development in Shaanxi Province as the research object, the use of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the combination of research methods, the urbanization and tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province are summarized. According to the urbanization rate of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2011, the proportion of tertiary industry to GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry employment to social employment, the proportion of tertiary industry added value to GDP. The data of increasing ratio of added value of tertiary industry are tested by unit root test and cointegration test. The correlation degree between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province is quantitatively analyzed by Granger causality test. The results show that:. The development of urbanization in Shaanxi Province has contributed to the increase of the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry. The increase in the number of employees in the tertiary industry is also the Granger reason for the steady and rapid development of urbanization in Shaanxi Province. At the same time, the rapid growth of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province has greatly promoted the development of urbanization. In the long run, the role of urbanization in promoting the growth rate of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province is not obvious. But in the short term, improving the level of urbanization is still positive significance to stimulate the growth rate of added value of tertiary industry. Finally, this paper analyzes the relationship between urbanization and the development of tertiary industry. Based on the actual situation of Shaanxi Province, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as perfecting the relevant system and guarantee, attaching importance to the development of the tertiary industry, rationally selecting the scale of the development of the tertiary industry, and perfecting the development mode of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F299.2

【参考文献】