内蒙古经济开放及与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 11:55

本文关键词： 经济开放经济增长因子分析协整分析　出处：《内蒙古财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以后，我国的经济与世界的联系越来越密切，由于政策以及地理因素，属于边疆省份的内蒙古经济开放的步伐落后于东部沿海省份，但是，近些年来，内蒙古依托其资源以及地域优势，对外贸易持续增长，外贸进出口总额在这33年当中也在不断的增加，从1978年的0.2674亿元增加到2011年的752.2708亿元，口岸经济蓬勃发展，在4000多公里的边境线上，内蒙古的19个口岸敞开了我国向北开放的门户，催生了活力无限的沿边开放带。从满洲里到二连浩特、再到策克，从东至西，对外经济贸易合作使过去封闭的边陲小镇焕发出生机。那么，内蒙古现在经济开放与我国其他地区相比是怎么样的一个状况呢？以及经济开放对内蒙古的经济到底产生了一个怎样的影响？它们之间是否存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系呢？本文借鉴前人研究成果，并考虑到衡量的是区域经济开放，设计了衡量经济开放的八个指标，分为两个方面，一方面是衡量对外经济开放的指标：外贸依存度、外资依存度、对外合作依存度、外商企业就业贡献率；另外一个方面是对内经济开放的指标：内贸依存度、内资依存度、人口净迁入率、货运密度，其中包括贸易、资本、人口、合作四个领域。继而采用因子分析法对全国各个省份的经济开放水平进行排名，从分析结果可知：内蒙古的经济开放水平目前还是比较的低，造成内蒙古经济开放水平低下的原因主要是在对外开放方面。了解到内蒙古的经济开放状况之后，我们有必要对内蒙古的经济开放和经济增长的关系进行研究，在这里，本文使用了协整理论对它们之间的关系进行探究。研究发现，内蒙古的经济开放各个指标当中，，有外贸依存度、外资依存度、内资依存度以及货运密度这个指标与经济增长指标存在长期稳定的协整关系，且这四个指标与增长之间存在的是正向的协整关系，结合前文研究成果，我们可以认为，虽然内蒙古目前的经济开放水平不高，但是随着经济开放的逐渐深入，它会日益成为拉动内蒙古经济增长的重要组成部分。其次，建立误差修正模型来说明经济开放与经济增长之间的具体的关系。最后，论文根据实证研究的结果，提出了扩大内蒙古经济开放，促进经济增长的几点对策建议：利用比较优势，大力发展对外贸易和口岸经济；加快基础设施建设，改善区位条件，加强与其他地区尤其是发达地区的经济合作；注重吸引内资；提高经济效益水平，促进经济增长。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, China's economy and the world are more and more closely linked, due to policy and geographical factors, the pace of economic opening in Inner Mongolia, which belongs to the frontier provinces, lags behind the eastern coastal provinces, but in recent years. Relying on its resources and regional advantages, Inner Mongolia's foreign trade continues to grow, and the total volume of foreign trade imports and exports in the 33 years is also increasing. From 26.74 million yuan in 1978 to seventy-five billion two hundred and twenty-seven million eighty thousand yuan in 2011, the port economy is booming, on the 4,000-kilometer border. The 19 ports in Inner Mongolia have opened the door of our country to the north, giving birth to the boundless vitality of the border opening belt, from Manzhouli to Erlianhaote, then to Tzeke, from east to west. Foreign economic and trade cooperation has given vitality to the previously closed frontier town. So, what is the situation of Inner Mongolia's economic opening compared with other regions of our country? And the economic opening to Inner Mongolia on the economy in the end produced a what kind of impact? Is there a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between them? This paper draws lessons from the previous research results, and considering that the measurement is the regional economic opening, designed eight indicators to measure the economic openness, divided into two aspects. On the one hand, it is the index to measure the opening of foreign economy: foreign trade dependence, foreign capital dependence, foreign cooperation dependence, and the employment contribution rate of foreign enterprises; Another aspect is the indicators of openness to the domestic economy: domestic trade dependence, domestic capital dependency, net migration rate, freight density, including trade, capital, and population. Cooperation in four areas. Then use factor analysis to rank the level of economic opening of all provinces in the country, from the analysis results: the level of economic openness in Inner Mongolia is still relatively low. The reason for the low level of economic opening in Inner Mongolia is mainly in the aspect of opening to the outside world. It is necessary to study the relationship between economic opening and economic growth in Inner Mongolia after understanding the economic opening situation in Inner Mongolia. In this paper, the co-integration theory is used to explore the relationship between them. The study found that there are foreign trade dependence and foreign capital dependence among the indicators of economic opening in Inner Mongolia. There is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between domestic capital dependency and freight density and economic growth index, and there is a positive co-integration relationship between these four indicators and growth, combined with the previous research results. We can think that although the current level of economic opening in Inner Mongolia is not high, but with the deepening of economic opening, it will increasingly become an important part of economic growth in Inner Mongolia. Secondly. Establish error correction model to explain the specific relationship between economic opening and economic growth. Finally, according to the results of empirical research, the paper proposed to expand the economic openness in Inner Mongolia. The countermeasures to promote economic growth are as follows: to develop foreign trade and port economy by means of comparative advantage; Speed up the construction of infrastructure, improve regional conditions, and strengthen economic cooperation with other regions, especially developed regions; Pay attention to attract domestic capital; We will raise the level of economic efficiency and promote economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

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