我国中等收入群体现状及其变动的测度与研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 09:45

本文关键词： 中等收入群体适应性核密度估计动态区间分解无条件分位数回归 FFL分解法　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：收入分配问题研究是经济学领域所关注的焦点之一,当前我国收入分配领域凸显的最主要的问题是分配不公和居民收入差距持续扩大。近年来,我国经济一直保持高速发展,但在经济快速增长和居民整体收入不断提高的同时,居民收入差距日益扩大,而收入差距的持续扩大容易引发社会矛盾,并阻碍经济的健康发展与快速增长。为防止出现“两头大,中间小”“M型”社会的收入分布趋势,从收入分配领域来说,就是要通过扩大中等收入群体的比重来理顺收入分配关系,缩小各收入群体之间的收入差距从而实现不同收入群体共享改革发展成果。从中等收入群体的形成发展来看,不同国家和地区在不同的经济发展阶段都存在中等收入群体,其作为社会成员的一个构成部分对现实的经济与社会运行都产生了重要作用和影响。中等收入群体对于经济的发展和社会的稳定作用不可忽视,培育规模宏大的中等收入群体也成为现代社会发展所要追求的重要目标。党的十八大报告中也明确提出了“收入分配差距缩小,中等收入群体持续扩大”这一深化收入分配改革的重要任务,同时扩大中等收入群体比重也是形成合理有序的收入分配格局和实现全面建成小康社会目标的具体要求。因此,本文通过对我国中等收入群体现状及其变动的测度与研究,合理界定我国中等收入群体,并把握其变动趋势的规律,进而找出影响中等收入群体比重扩大的症结,制定切实可行的扩大我国中等收入群体比重的措施和政策,对于我国实现共同富裕、全面建设小康社会具有重要的意义。本文的结构和主要内容主要由以下四部分构成：第一部分是第1章导论,主要是提出本论文的选题背景、理论及现实意义,对国内外的研究现状和文献资料进行追踪和评述,并说明研究方法和内容、数据选取以及创新点。第二部分是第2章理论与方法研究,这部分主要是对研究我国中等收入群体问题的相关理论进行回顾,并对其研究方法进行说明,力求在理论和方法上为后文打下坚实基础。第三部分是第3章至第6章实证研究部分,这一部分主要是对我国中等收入群体的现状及其变动进行实证分析,考察其宏微观影响因素。本文实证研究部分主要是采用1989-2009年中国营养与健康调查(CHNS)数据,对我国中等收入群体的现状及其变动进行研究：第3章采用现代非参数方法中的适应性核密度方法对我国居民整体的收入分布进行估计,并采用相对分布法从长期和短期两种角度分别对不同年份的对照组和参照组不同收入水平下人口比重的变动来研究居民收入分布变迁的具体过程。第4章基于居民收入分布提出我国中等收入群体的测度框架与模型,并测算了我国中等收入群体的识别标准与比重规模,对我国中等收入群体收入分布的变化趋势进行比较分析,从而为后续的实证分析提供技术准备。第5章采用动态区间分解法,对我国中等收入群体比重变动的影响因素进行宏观效应分解,综合分析“经济增长效应”、“收入分配效应”和“标准变动效应”在中等收入群体比重变动中的经济涵义；同时采用动态区间分解法与适应性核密度估计相结合的方法,模拟出动态区间的变化过程中的我国中等收入群体收入分布变迁和人口比重变动的情况。第6章采用静态分析与动态比较相结合的方法从微观视角研究影响我国中等收入群体收入及其变动的影响因素：首先采用无条件分位数回归技术对总体样本中间部分的分位数进行估计,用以反映个人特征对我国中等收入群体收入的微观贡献情况；其次,采用FFL分解法对不同年份我国中等收入群体的收入变迁进行全面、系统的微观因素分解,深入探讨影响我国中等收入群体收入变动的微观影响因素。第四部分是第7章总结与展望,结合前文的研究结论提出相应的建议措施,并对下一步研究进行展望。
[Abstract]:Study on the problem of income distribution is one of the focuses in the field of economics, the main problems of the current prominent income distribution in China is widening inequality and the income gap of residents. In recent years, China's economy has maintained rapid development, but in the overall income of the rapid economic growth and continuous improvement of the residents at the same time, the income gap between residents increasingly expand the income gap continues to expand, and easily lead to social conflicts, and hinder the healthy development and rapid economic growth.
In order to prevent the emergence of "two large, intermediate small" M "type a" social income distribution trends, from the field of income distribution, is to expand the proportion of middle-income groups to rationalize the relations of income distribution, narrowing the income gap between different income groups to achieve different income groups share the fruits of reform and development. From the middle income group the formation and development, different countries and regions are middle-income groups in different stages of economic development, as a part of the members of the society to the reality of economic and social operation has an important role and influence. Stabilization of middle income groups for the development of economy and society can not be ignored, large-scale cultivation the middle income group has become the development of modern society to an important goal. The eighteen Party Congress has explicitly put forward the "income distribution gap narrowing The continuous expansion of the middle income group "is an important task of deepening the reform of income distribution. Meanwhile, enlarging the proportion of the middle income group is also a specific requirement for forming a reasonable and orderly pattern of income distribution and achieving the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.
Therefore, this article through the measurement and research of China's moderate income group status and changes, reasonable definition of middle income groups in China, and grasp the trend of the law, and then find out the effect of expanding the proportion of middle-income groups the crux of the problem, formulate feasible to enlarge the proportion of medium income group in our country the measures and policies for our country the realization of common prosperity, has an important significance to the comprehensive construction of well-off society.
The structure and main contents of this paper are mainly composed of the following four parts:
The first part is the introduction of the first chapter. It mainly puts forward the background, theoretical and practical significance of this thesis, traces and comments on the research status and literature at home and abroad, and explains the research methods and contents, data selection and innovation.
The second part is the second chapter of the theory and method research. This part mainly reviews the relevant theories of the study of the problem of middle income group in China, and illustrates the research methods, striving to lay a solid foundation for the latter in theory and method.
The third part is the third chapter to the sixth chapter is the empirical research, this part is the present situation and the change of middle income groups in China an empirical analysis on the macro and micro factors. In the empirical research is mainly used in 1989-2009 China health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data, the present situation and the change of medium income group our study:
The third chapter uses the adaptive kernel density method of modern non parametric methods of Chinese residents' overall income distribution is estimated, and the relative distribution law from short-term and long-term two angles respectively for the control group and the control group in different years under different income levels and population changes to the specific process of the changes of income distribution.
The fourth chapter is based on the framework and model of income distribution of middle income groups in China, and calculates the identification standard of China's middle-income groups and the proportion of the scale, a comparative analysis of China's middle income groups income distribution trends, so as to provide the technical preparation for the subsequent empirical analysis.
The fifth chapter adopts dynamic interval decomposition method, the influence factors of the proportion of the medium income group in our country of the changes in the macro effects of decomposition, a comprehensive analysis of "economic growth", "income effect" and "standard change effect" in the meaning of economic changes in the proportion of middle-income groups; while using dynamic interval decomposition method and adaptive kernel density estimation method, simulate the dynamic change process of interval in our country's middle income groups the proportion of income distribution changes and population changes.
The sixth chapter uses the method of static analysis and dynamic comparison with the combination of the influencing factors on the impact of China's middle income groups income and its change from a micro perspective: first using unconditional quantile of the overall sample middle quantile regression techniques to estimate to reflect the individual characteristics of the micro contribution of middle income groups income in China; secondly, the FFL decomposition method for different years China's middle income groups income change comprehensively, micro factors decomposition system, it discusses the influence of micro influencing factors of middle income groups income change of our country.
The forth part is the summary and Prospect of Chapter 7, and puts forward the corresponding suggestions combined with the conclusions of the previous research, and looks forward to the next step of the research.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.7

【引证文献】