我国第三产业内部结构的优化研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 12:38

本文关键词： 第三产业内部结构时间序列分析结构优化　出处：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：第三产业的发展水平是反映一个国家或地区生产力发展水平的重要标志之一。发展第三产业可以有力地促进物质生产的发展;更好地满足人民的生活需要；有利于城市多功能作用的充分发挥；有利于促进就业,缓解就业压力。调整和优化第三产业内部结构可以有效地促进我国国民经济增长。本文主要借鉴国内外第三产业的经济理论,立足于我国第三产业发展的历史和现状,运用2003-2011年的数据,重点从第三产业的产出结构、就业结构、投资结构和内部效益结构对我国第三产业内部结构的演变过程进行分析；同时,分析了世界典型的发达国家和发展中国家第三产业内部各行业发展状况,将我国的相应数据与其进行对比,得出我国与几个典型国家第三产业发展的不同和我国第三产业发展过程中存在的问题；此外,在分析2003-2011年我国第三产业内部结构的基础上,运用基于ARMA模型的时间序列分析法预测出第三产业内部各行业的增加值,定量研究了我国第三产业内部结构未来五年的变动趋势。本文针对第三产业内部结构演变存在的诸多问题,提出了促进我国第三产业内部结构调整和优化的政策建议,以期为我国未来采取有效措施调整产业结构提供决策参考。首先,合理提升传统服务业：加快发展现代交通运输业,优化批发和零售业,发挥住宿餐饮业的基础作用；其次,大力发展新兴服务业：深化改革金融业,促进房地产业的健康发展,大力拓展信息服务业；再次,优化就业结构和投资结构：促进就业结构优化,合理引导投资流向；最后,提高非营利性行业相对生产率：引入竞争机制,提高劳动生产率和资金生产率。
[Abstract]:The development level of the tertiary industry is one of the important symbols reflecting the development level of the productive forces of a country or region, and the development of the tertiary industry can promote the development of material production. To better meet the living needs of the people; It is propitious to give full play to the multifunctional function of the city; The adjustment and optimization of the internal structure of the tertiary industry can effectively promote the growth of China's national economy. This article mainly draws lessons from the domestic and foreign tertiary industry economic theory, based on our country tertiary industry development history and the present situation, uses the data from 2003 to 2011, emphatically from the tertiary industry output structure. The structure of employment, the structure of investment and the structure of internal benefit are analyzed to analyze the evolution of the internal structure of tertiary industry in China. At the same time, the paper analyzes the development situation of the tertiary industry in the developed and developing countries, and compares the corresponding data of our country with it. The differences between China and some typical countries in the development of the tertiary industry and the problems in the development of the tertiary industry in China are obtained. In addition, based on the analysis of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China from 2003 to 2011, the added value of each industry in the tertiary industry is predicted by using the time series analysis method based on the ARMA model. The change trend of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in the next five years is studied quantitatively. This paper aims at the problems existing in the evolution of the internal structure of the tertiary industry. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the adjustment and optimization of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in order to provide a decision reference for the effective measures to be taken to adjust the industrial structure in the future. Promote the traditional service industry rationally: speed up the development of modern transportation, optimize the wholesale and retail trade, give play to the basic role of the catering industry; Secondly, vigorously develop the emerging service industry: deepen the reform of the financial industry, promote the healthy development of the real estate industry, vigorously expand the information service industry; Thirdly, optimize the employment structure and investment structure: promote the optimization of the employment structure, guide the investment flow reasonably; Finally, improve the relative productivity of non-profit industry: introduce competition mechanism, improve labor productivity and capital productivity.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F121.3;F121.3;F224

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