中国人口出生率下降与经济发展

发布时间：2018-01-25 10:46

本文关键词： 人口出生率计划生育经济发展　出处：《统计研究》2014年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中国人口出生率下降以及人口老龄化引起了人们对计划生育政策调整的激烈讨论。作者根据全国27个地区1980-2011年的面板数据,在横截面存在相关性的情形下,运用面板单位根和协整方法,定量考察了人口出生率、人口死亡率、城镇职工工资水平、农村居民收入水平之间的关系。研究发现:尽管我国实行了计划生育政策,但人口出生率与经济发展变量之间仍然存在着长期稳定的关系;城市和农村的经济发展对于人口出生率的影响存在显著差异。前者会刺激人口出生率的提高,但后者会降低人口出生率,且影响程度比前者大;人口出生率与经济发展变量之间的关系存在明显的地区差异。根据以上结论,作者认为放松计划生育政策不会引起我国人口数量猛增,反而会优化人口结构,提高人口整体素质。
[Abstract]:China's declining birth rate and aging population have sparked heated debate about the adjustment of the family planning policy, according to panel data from 27 regions in the country from 1980 to 2011. In the case of cross-section correlation, using the panel unit root and co-integration method, the population birth rate, population mortality, urban workers' wages are quantitatively investigated. The relationship between the income level of rural residents. The study found that: although China has implemented a family planning policy, there is still a long-term stable relationship between the birth rate and the variables of economic development; There are significant differences between urban and rural economic development on the impact of birth rate, the former will stimulate the increase of birth rate, but the latter will reduce the birth rate, and the degree of influence is greater than the former; There are obvious regional differences between the birth rate and the economic development variables. According to the above conclusion, the author thinks that relaxing the family planning policy will not cause the population to surge, but will optimize the population structure. Improve the overall quality of the population.
【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院;
【分类号】：C924.2;F124
【正文快照】： 一、引言自从我国20世纪70年代末实行改革开放政策以来,我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就。与此同时,1979年,我国政府将“实行计划生育,控制人口数量,提高人口素质”确立为基本国策之一。在计划生育政策执行过程中,城镇地区受到更为严格的计划生育限制,但不同地区之间存在较

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