京沪高速铁路时间节约的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-29 17:54

本文关键词： 京沪高速铁路时间节约价值社会影响经济影响　出处：《北京交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：京沪高速铁路经过二十几年的准备酝酿,三年多的建设施工和近两年的运营,目前正在发挥越来越大的效益,创造出惊人的价值。京沪高速铁路将原本15-20个小时的旅途缩短至5小时,有效地节省了旅客的出行时间,大大缩短了沿线城市间的时空距离,加快资金、劳动力等的流动,对沿线的经济社会发展产生深刻的影响。但由于高速铁路属于大规模投资和经营项目,投资大而回收期较长,京沪高速铁路所带来的深远影响远不是简单的财务数据所能涵盖的,更要从宏观和长远的角度来评价。本文正是基于这一背景,在探求京沪高速铁路是如何通过节约运行时间对沿线经济社会产生影响的基础上,力求科学合理地对京沪高速铁路时间节约的影响进行测算,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过理论和实证相结合的方式,首先,计算京沪高速铁路时间节约的直接影响,即京沪高速铁路通过缩短旅客旅行时间带来的时间节约价值；其次,总结归纳京沪高速铁路时间节约的社会影响,即京沪高速铁路的运营可有效缩短不同城市间的时空距离,促进社会公共资源的合理流动和优化配备；最后,在分析京沪高速铁路是如何通过节约运行时间拉动沿线经济发展的基础上,利用面板数据模型对京沪高速铁路沿线的四省三市进行实证分析。实证研究发现,京沪高速铁路的运营可以带来巨大的时间节约价值,京沪高速铁路仅在运营初期的十五个月间,就已经为社会带来大约900亿元的时间节约价值；京沪高速铁路对沿线四省三市的经济发展具有很强的助推作用,2011年京沪高速铁路的开通运营,为沿线带来了3153亿元的GDP,大约占京沪高速铁路沿线四省三市GDP总和的1.9%。总之,京沪高速铁路的意义已经不局限于对沿线交通运输结构的改善,其运营对沿线的经济社会发展也具有重大而深远的意义。
[Abstract]:After more than 20 years of preparation, more than three years of construction and operation, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is playing a more and more important role. The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway shortens the original 15-20 hours of travel to 5 hours, effectively saving travel time for passengers and greatly reducing the space and time distance between cities along the route. Speeding up the flow of capital and labor force has a profound impact on the economic and social development along the line. However, because high-speed railway is a large-scale investment and business projects, the investment is large and the payback period is longer. The far-reaching impact brought by Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is far from simple financial data, and it should be evaluated from macro and long-term perspectives. This paper is based on this background. On the basis of exploring how the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway affects the economy and society along the line by saving the running time, the author tries to estimate the impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on the time saving scientifically and reasonably. It has important theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, through the combination of theoretical and empirical methods, first of all, the direct impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway time savings, that is, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway by shortening passenger travel time brought about by the time saving value; Secondly, it summarizes the social impact of time saving of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, that is, the operation of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway can effectively shorten the space-time distance between different cities, promote the reasonable flow of social public resources and optimize the allocation of social public resources. Finally, on the basis of analyzing how the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway drives the economic development of the line by saving the running time, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the four provinces and three markets along the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway by using the panel data model. Empirical study found that the operation of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway can bring huge time-saving value, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is only in the early 15 months of operation. It has already brought about 90 billion yuan of time saving value to the society; Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has a strong boost to the economic development of the four provinces and three markets along the line. In 2011, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway opened and operated, which brought 315.3 billion yuan of GDP along the line. In short, the significance of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is not limited to the improvement of transport structure along the line. Its operation is also of great and far-reaching significance to the economic and social development along the route.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F532.3;F127

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