能源、经济与环境驱动关系的统计研究

发布时间：2018-01-31 21:25

本文关键词： 能源经济与环境（3E）系统驱动关系协调性　出处：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国经济经历了前所未有的持续、高速增长，经济实力和综合国力不断提升。然而，经济高速增长的同时，能源消耗也大幅度攀升，伴随着高能源消耗和高速经济增长的是一系列环境问题。在能源消费、经济增长与环境保护之间的矛盾变得日趋突出的今天，全面分析三者之间的关系和相互影响程度，了解能源、经济与环境间的相互作用关系，是解决矛盾的必要前提。能源、经济与环境（3E）系统间的关系是一个复杂的系统关系。利用相互作用模型和压力-状态-响应模型对能源、经济与环境（3E）系统的驱动机制和协调机制进行研究，，发现其两者之间同时存在起促进作用的正驱动作用和起阻碍作用的负驱动作用，而且一个系统的发展变化不仅受到与其联系的另一单一系统发展变化的影响，还受到另外两个系统之间驱动作用的影响。将能源、经济与环境两两之间的相互作用关系及规律定义为局部驱动机制，将能源、经济与环境三者之间的相互作用关系及规律定义为整体驱动机制。从局部和整体的角度对中国能源、经济与环境（3E）系统的驱动关系进行计量检验。利用面板单位根、协整和因果检验方法进行局部驱动关系检验，结果表明：经济增长与能源消费不管在长期还是短期内都互为因果关系；环境污染与经济增长只在长期内互为因果关系；环境污染与能源消费在长期内互为因果关系，短期内存在工业废气排放量、工业固体废弃物产生量与能源消费的双向因果关系以及能源消费到工业废水排放量的单向因果关系。利用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法进行整体驱动关系检验，结果表明：经济增长、能源消费与环境污染之间存在长期的均衡关系，经济增长对能源消费和环境污染的影响呈现递增的趋势；能源消费对经济增长和环境污染的影响短期内逐渐递增，长期内趋于稳定；环境污染对经济增长和能源消耗的影响逐渐递减，由开始的正效应慢慢变成负效应。压力-状态-响应（P-S-R）模型能较好地反映能源、经济与环境之间的相互作用关系，可以用来描述3E各子系统发展的动态均衡过程。利用该模型构建我国能源、经济与环境协调评价指标体系，并利用熵权TOPSIS法对我国1995-2011年3E系统的协调性进行综合评价。评价结果显示：我国能源、经济与环境（3E）系统的协调性大致呈现递减的趋势，2007年之前处于协调状态，而2007年及以后年份我国能源、经济与环境系统变得不再协调，而且这种不协调的程度随着时间的推移逐渐加深。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economy has experienced unprecedented sustained growth, rapid growth, economic strength and comprehensive national strength constantly improved. However, with the rapid economic growth, energy consumption has also increased significantly. With the high energy consumption and high economic growth is a series of environmental problems. In energy consumption, economic growth and environmental protection between the contradiction has become increasingly prominent today. It is necessary to analyze the relationship and the degree of interaction between them and to understand the interaction between energy, economy and environment. The relationship between energy, economic and environmental systems is a complex system relationship. The interaction model and the pressure-state-response model are used to deal with energy. The driving mechanism and coordination mechanism of the economic and environmental 3E) system are studied. It is found that there are both positive driving and negative driving which play a positive role and a negative driving effect in the two systems. Moreover, the development of one system is influenced not only by the development of the other single system, but also by the driving effect between the other two systems. The interaction between energy, economy and environment is defined as the local driving mechanism. The interaction between economy and environment is defined as the overall driving mechanism. The driving relation of economy and environment 3E) system is tested by econometrics, and the local driving relationship is tested by panel unit root, cointegration and causality test. The results show that economic growth and energy consumption are causally related to each other in the long run or in the short term. Environmental pollution and economic growth are causality only in the long run. Environmental pollution and energy consumption are causally related to each other in the long run, and industrial exhaust emissions exist in the short term. Two-way causality between industrial solid waste production and energy consumption and one-way causality between energy consumption and industrial wastewater discharge. VAR model is used. Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to test the overall driving relationship. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution. The influence of economic growth on energy consumption and environmental pollution is increasing; The impact of energy consumption on economic growth and environmental pollution increases gradually in the short term and tends to be stable in the long run. The effect of environmental pollution on economic growth and energy consumption decreases gradually, and gradually changes from positive effect to negative effect. The pressure-state-response P-S-R model can better reflect the interaction among energy, economy and environment. It can be used to describe the dynamic equilibrium process of the development of 3e subsystems. The model is used to construct the evaluation index system of energy, economy and environment coordination in China. The coordination of 3e system in China from 1995 to 2011 is evaluated by entropy weight TOPSIS method. The evaluation results show that: energy in China. The coordination of economy and environment 3E) system is in the state of coordination before 2007, but in 2007 and later years, the economic and environmental system is no longer coordinated. And the extent of this disharmony gradually deepens over time.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F206;F124;F224

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