矿产资源开发对中国矿产资源型地区经济发展的影响及其机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-03 06:09

本文关键词： 资源诅咒矿产资源型地区内生增长荷兰病矿产资源产业　出处：《西北大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自然资源是人类赖以生存和经济社会发展的必要条件,其中矿产资源作为人类能源和工业原料的主要来源更是经济增长所必须的物质基础。在新世纪以前,受到体制因素以及发展观念的制约,我国矿产资源型地区普遍出现了产业结构单一化、缺乏接续产业的问题,并出现了一批矿产资源枯竭型城市,这似乎表明中国国内也存在资源诅咒现象。与此相对应的是,随着我国市场经济体制的建立和逐步完善,特别是在上世纪九十年代中期以后国家对矿产资源价格管制的逐步放松,一些具有优势矿产资源禀赋的省份经济发展十分迅速。这种现象又与资源诅咒假说相悖。本文试图将中国的现实条件与传统理论相结合,并通过理论模型推导与实证检验的方法揭示矿产资源产业的发展对我国矿产资源型地区经济发展的直接影响以及传导机制的内在机理。本文研究内容主要包括四个部分：首先,对我国矿产资源型地区的科学界定,结果表明我国典型的矿产资源型地区包括山西、内蒙古、黑龙江、陕西、青海和新疆六个省区,同时矿产资源产业专业化中高程度的省份主要集中在我国北方地区,具有明显的空间集聚性。其次,针对传统荷兰病模型中明显与中国现实条件不符的假设条件进行修改,并通过建立一个内生增长模型来分析矿产资源产业扩张对地区其他产业以及地区经济增长的影响,这部分工作集中在第四章。结果表明在生产要素可跨区流动的条件下,矿产资源产业扩张并不必然导致地区制造业的被挤出以及稳态下地区经济增长水平的下降。如果继续引入可转移支付的矿产资源税收的条件,那么矿产资源产业的扩张可能会促进地区制造业的发展以及地区经济增长的水平。再次,对我国省际层面是否存在“资源诅咒”现象的实证检验。实证研究以1999-2010年全国省级单位为研究样本。实证检验的结果表明,在加入区位虚拟变量等控制变量后,横截面数据回归结果显示,我国人均GDP的省际分布更多与区位因素而不是矿产资源产业依赖度相关。面板数据回归模型的结果表明,在加入控制变量后,矿产资源产业依赖度与地区经济表现之间的原本存在的负相关关系不显著了,说明矿产资源依赖可能通过其他间接的效应减弱了其对地区经济增长的不利影响。因此,在我国省际层面,地区矿产资源禀赋优势以及对该产业的依赖并没有在本文的研究窗口期内导致所谓“资源诅咒”现象的发生。最后,以我国矿产资源型省区为研究样本,对矿产资源产业依赖对地区经济增长的直接和间接影响进行了实证考察,并对理论模型的结论进行检验。实证研究的结果表明矿产资源产业扩张通过不同的传导机制对地区经济产生了多样化的影响。对制造业影响的研究发现,矿产资源产业的扩张在产出和投资方面并没有出现明显的对制造业的挤出效应。虽然矿产资源产业扩张总体上没有挤出制造业的发展,但是对制造业的不同行业影响则不同。对于矿产品加工业,矿产资源产业具有明显的直接促进作用以及较大的财政转移支付效应；对于其他制造业,矿产资源产业则具有不显著的负相关关系以及较小的财政转移支付效应。在其他可能的传导机制方面,实证研究的结果表明,矿产资源产业的发展促进了地区固定资本存量的增加,对地区制度质量水平具有明显的促进作用但是对于制度质量的改进速度没有明显的相关关系,同时矿产资源产业的发展还提高了本地区的人力资本投资水平。本文的分析表明,我国现阶段在省际层面并不存在明显的资源诅咒效应,矿产资源产业的扩张也在一定程度上促进了矿产资源型地区的经济增长,但是我国未来的发展会使资源诅咒的产生条件逐步具备,矿产资源型地区应当尽快以适当的产业政策促进本地区产业多样化的发展,以防范资源诅咒现象的发生。
[Abstract]:Natural resources is a necessary condition for human survival and social and economic development, the mineral resources as the main source of human energy and raw materials industry is the necessary material basis of economic growth. In the new century, restricted by the institutional factors and the concept of development, China's mineral resources area generally appeared single industrial structure, the lack of industry problems, and there have been a number of mineral resources exhausted city, it seems that China has the phenomenon of resource curse. Correspondingly, with the establishment and gradual perfection of market economy system of our country, especially in the last century after the mid 90s price of mineral resources in the country s deregulation some of the advantages of mineral resources, the province economic development is very rapid. This phenomenon and the resource curse hypothesis contrary. This paper attempts to present Chinese The combination of real conditions and traditional theories, and through theoretical model deduction and empirical test, reveals the direct influence of mineral resources industry development on the economic development of mineral resources regions in China, and the internal mechanism of transmission mechanism.
The main contents of this paper include four parts:
First of all, the definition of mineral resources in China in science, the results show that China's typical mineral resources region including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces and six provinces at the same time, a high degree of specialization in the mineral resources industry is mainly concentrated in the northern area of our country, has obvious spatial agglomeration.
Secondly, according to the assumptions of the traditional model and the reality of Chinese Dutch disease significantly inconsistent conditions were modified, and through the establishment of an endogenous growth model to analyze the mineral resources industry expansion effect on economic growth in other industries and areas, this part focuses on the fourth chapter. The results show that in the production factors of cross flow conditions next, the mineral resources industry expansion does not necessarily lead to regional manufacturing extrusion and the steady state level of regional economic growth decline. If the mineral resources tax to introduce transfer payment conditions, the mineral resources industry expansion may promote regional economic growth and the development of manufacturing industry area level.
Again, an empirical test on the provincial level in China is the existence of "resource curse" phenomenon. The empirical study in 1999-2010 years the national provincial units as the research sample. The empirical results show that the adding control variables such as location dummy variables, cross-sectional data regression results show that the provincial distribution of per capita GDP of our country and more location factors instead of the mineral resources industry dependence. Panel data regression results show that after adding the control variables in the mineral resources industry, economic performance and degree of dependence between regions originally existed negative correlation is not significant, that mineral resources dependence may through other indirect effect weakened its adverse effects on regional economic growth therefore, in our country the provincial level area, mineral resources advantage and dependence on the industry did not lead to the study in this paper the window period The occurrence of the phenomenon of "resource curse".
Finally, the mineral resource-based regions in China as the research sample, the mineral resources industry relies on the direct and indirect effects of regional economic growth were studied, and the conclusion of theoretical model test. The empirical results show that the mineral resources industry expansion has diverse effects on regional economy through the conduction mechanism is not the same. Study on the effect on manufacturing, mineral resources industry expansion in output and investment did not appear obvious crowding out effect on the manufacturing industry. Although the development of manufacturing industry out of the mineral resources industry expansion on the whole, but in different sectors of manufacturing industry the impact is different. For the minerals processing industry, mineral resources the industry has a direct role in promoting and larger fiscal transfer payment effect; for other manufacturing industries, the mineral resources industry has no significant negative phase Close relationship and lower fiscal transfer payment effect. In other possible aspects of the transmission mechanism, the empirical results show that the development of mineral resources industry to promote the increase in the stock of fixed capital, the regional institutional quality level has a significant role in promoting the improvement of quality system in speed but there is no obvious correlation between the development, at the same time the mineral resources industry but also improve the level of human capital investment in the area.
The analysis shows that the present stage of our country on the provincial level there is no obvious effect of resource curse, the mineral resources industry expansion has to a certain extent, promoted the regional mineral resources of economic growth, but China's future development will make the resource curse conditions gradually have regional mineral resources should be promoted as soon as possible the industrial diversification development in the region with the appropriate industrial policy, to prevent the occurrence of the phenomenon of resource curse.

【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F124.5

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