中国消费需求影响因素结构研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 01:06

本文关键词： 消费需求影响因素因素结构　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济总量不断扩大,综合国力逐渐增强。伴随着经济的发展和城乡居民收入水平的提高,人民生活从贫困步入了小康和富裕行列,居民消费水平不断提高、消费规模也不断扩大。但与世界上发达国家相比,我国人均GDP水平和居民消费水平都还很低；与经济增长速度相比,居民消费的增速还明显偏慢。同时,由于经济发展水平的不平衡和城乡二元结构的存在,不同地区、不同群体、不同行业以及城乡之间的消费水平还有很大的差距。 1998年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的爆发,出口美国、日本和欧盟等经济发达国家的外需乏力,我国的宏观经济表现出了总需求不足特别是消费需求不足的特征,经济增速明显减退。 1998年下半年开始,我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,2007年,提出了经济增长方式由“主要依靠投资、出口拉动”向“依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动”的转变。2009年,我国出台了“扩内需、保增长”的一揽子刺激计划,扩大投资4万亿。同时,着力刺激国内需求特别是消费需求。“十二五”规划更是明确了扩大消费需求是我国现阶段乃至今后相当长时期的战略方针和基本立足点,是拉动我国经济快速增长、和谐社会建设的根本途径。本文从我国目前消费需求不足的现实状况出发,从宏观和微观结合的角度探求影响消费需求的因素结构。研究整体思路以“存在问题——影响分析——对策建议”为基本路线,综合了消费经济学、消费社会学、计量经济学和人口学的基本理论知识,实现比较深入地剖析消费需求影响因素的研究目的。本文首先阐述了马克思主义消费理论、西方经济学消费理论、市场经济条件下消费需求实现理论的主要内容,对已有的国内外学术研究成果进行归纳总结。进而分析了我国消费需求的现状特征,对消费需求的影响因素进行了结构化分类,对影响因素的作用机理进行了数理推导,建立了多因素综合影响的计量经济学模型。作为研究的结果,对扩大消费需求的对策措施进行了总结。全文共分六章进行论述。第1章导论。阐述研究选题的背景与意义,介绍了研究方法和研究主要内容,总结了研究的创新之处以及存在的不足。第2章研究基础理论概述。对研究的相关概念和基础理论进行了简要概述。具体内容是界定消费需求和结构分析的内涵,对马克思主义消费理论、西方经济学消费理论、市场经济条件下消费需求实现理论进行了简单的介绍和梳理,归纳了国内外学者对消费需求及影响因素研究的相关学术观点。第3章我国消费需求的现状特征。分析了我国消费需求的目前状况：从纵向历史变化来看,社会总需求存在着国内需求与国外需求、投资需求与消费需求、政府消费与居民消费、城镇消费与农村消费的结构失衡。从横向国际比较来看,我国的消费率和居民消费率还明显偏低。第4章消费需求影响因素的结构分类。影响消费需求的宏观和微观因素种类繁多,将各种社会经济因素进行综合分析和结构化分类。认为影响消费需求的因素是由消费主体、支付能力、消费意愿和实现环境等四个方面构成的一个有机整体结构。具体结构包括：消费主体因素。作为消费主体的人口,其规模和结构直接影响着消费需求。人口规模所表现出的人口数量直接决定消费的规模和潜在容量。人口结构主要分析人口的年龄构成、人口在地理上的分布和密集程度等,人口结构对消费需求的结构和市场格局产生深刻影响。支付能力因素。支付能力表现在绝对能力和相对能力两个方面,绝对能力是由消费主体的收入水平决定的,相对能力由收入的差异程度——收入差距来反映,支付能力的这两方面状况都取决于收入分配格局。消费意愿因素。由于受价值观念、宗教信仰、风俗习惯等消费文化观念的影响,即使在同等收入条件下,消费主体的消费意愿也会有着很大的差异。同时,消费意愿还取决于不确定性风险下人们对未来收入支出的预期。实现环境因素。消费需求是消费意愿的客观实现,实现过程要受到自然、经济和社会等客观条件的制约。这三个方面的因素主要表现为自然资源禀赋,基础设施和产业结构,消费政策和法治环境等。第5章消费需求影响因素的作用机理。首先,通过比较严密的数理推导,分析人口的年龄构成和地理分布、收入差距、收入支出预期、产业结构等单因素对消费需求的作用机理。然后,基于消费需求影响因素结构,建立了多因素综合影响的计量经济学模型,并用实证数据对计量模型进行检验。结果表明模型均较好地拟合了居民消费率变量,使得影响因素结构分类的合理性得到一定程度的支持。第6章扩大消费需求的对策措施。在影响因素结构分类的基础上,明确了扩大消费需求对策措施的具体内容：调整消费主体是扩大消费需求的基础,提高支付能力是扩大消费需求的核心,增强消费意愿是扩大消费需求的关键,优化实现环境是扩大消费需求的保障。扩大消费需求对于我国经济社会发展具有重要意义。本文的创新点主要体现在以下四个方面： 1.比较全面地分析了影响消费需求的社会经济因素,将各类因素进行了结构化的分类,分为消费主体、支付能力、消费意愿和实现环境等四个方面。 2.强调了消费主体因素对消费需求具有的重大影响,把人口政策、老龄社会和人口分布作为影响消费需求的重要方面来进行研究。 3.分析了人口的年龄构成和地理分布、收入差距、收入支出预期、产业结构等因素影响消费需求的作用机理,建立了影响消费率的多因素综合影响的计量模型。 4.明确了扩大消费需求对策措施的具体内容：调整消费主体、提高支付能力、增强消费意愿和优化实现环境。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has made remarkable achievements, the economy continues to expand, the comprehensive national strength gradually. With the development of economy and the income of urban and rural residents to raise the level of people's life into a well-off and rich from poverty, consumption level has been constantly improved, the consumption scale has been expanded. But compared with the world in developed countries, China's per capita GDP level and consumption levels are very low; compared with the speed of economic growth, consumption growth is obviously too slow. At the same time, because the level of economic development and the imbalance of the two structure in urban and rural areas exist in different regions, different groups, between different industries and urban and rural consumption level there is a big gap.
In 1998, the Asian financial crisis and the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the export demand of the developed countries such as the United States, Japan and the European Union was weak. China's macro-economy showed the characteristics of insufficient total demand, especially the lack of consumer demand, and the economic growth rate was significantly reduced.
The second half of 1998, China implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2007, put forward the mode of economic growth by relying mainly on investment and export led to rely on consumption, investment, exports "change.2009 years, China introduced the" expanding domestic demand growth. "The stimulus package, the expansion of investment 4 trillion. At the same time, efforts to stimulate domestic demand, especially consumer demand." 12th Five-Year "plan is clear to expand consumer demand is a strategic policy of our country at present and for quite a long time and the foothold, stimulating the rapid growth of China's economy, the fundamental way of building a harmonious society.
This article from the reality of China's current situation of insufficient consumer demand of factor structure exploration from the macro and micro angle of consumer demand. On the whole idea of the basic line with "problems -- Analysis of the influence of countermeasures, comprehensive consumer economics, sociology of consumption, the basic theoretical knowledge of econometrics and demography. To achieve more in-depth analysis of the objective factors on the impact of consumer demand.
This paper expounds Marx's theory of consumption, the consumption theory of western economics, the main content of theory under the condition of market economy, consumer demand, to the domestic and foreign academic studies are summarized. Then the current characteristics of the consumption demand of our country is analyzed, the influencing factors of the consumption demand of structured classification, mechanism of effect the factors of mathematical derivation, established the econometric model of multi factors. As a result of the research on the Countermeasures of expanding consumption demand are summarized. The thesis consists of six chapters.
The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the research topic, introduces the research methods and main contents, and summarizes the innovation and shortcomings of the research.
The second chapter studies. An overview of the theory basis of concepts related to the research and basic theory are summarized. The specific content is the definition and structure analysis of consumer demand, on Marx's theory of consumption, the consumption theory of western economics, the theory introduces the market economy under the conditions of consumer demand, summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars the influence of consumer demand and related factors on the academic point of view.
The third chapter present characteristics of the consumption demand of our country. This article analyzes the current situation of China's consumption demand: from historical changes, social total demand the existence of domestic and external demand, investment demand and consumption demand, government consumption and consumption structure, urban consumption and rural consumption imbalance from the horizontal international comparison. In China, the consumption rate and the household consumption rate is significantly lower.
The fourth chapter structure classification of influencing factors of consumer demand. Effects of different kinds of macro and micro factors of consumer demand there will be all kinds of social and economic factors were analyzed and categorized. Factors that influence the consumption demand is the main consumption, ability to pay, an organic whole structure four aspects of consumption demand and the environment for the realization of including the specific structure:
The main consumption factors. As the main consumer population, its scale and structure directly affects consumer demand. Population size of the population showed directly determines the size and potential capacity of consumption. The main population structure analysis of population age structure, population distribution in geography and intensive degree, have a profound impact on the population structure and structure the pattern of the market of consumer demand.
The ability to pay. The ability to pay factors in two aspects of absolute and relative ability of ability, ability is determined by the absolute income level of consumption of the main body, the relative ability by income differences: the income gap reflects the ability to pay the two status depends on the income distribution pattern.
Consumer willingness factors. Due to the values, religious beliefs, customs and other effects of consumer culture, even in the same income conditions, the main consumer consumption will also have great differences. At the same time, consumption will also depend on the risk of uncertainty of expected future income and expenditure.
To achieve environmental factors, consumption demand is the objective realization of consumption intention. The realization process is restricted by natural, economic and social objective conditions. These three factors are mainly natural resource endowment, infrastructure and industrial structure, consumption policy and rule of law environment.
The mechanism of the influence of the fifth chapter of consumer demand factors. Firstly, through rigorous mathematical derivation and analysis of population age structure and geographical distribution, income gap, income and expenditure expectations, the mechanism of single factor of industrial structure on consumption demand. Then, based on the influence factors of consumer demand, has established econometric model comprehensive influence the factors, and the econometric models to test with empirical data. The results show that the model had better fitting the consumption rate variable, makes the classification factors of the rationality of the structure to a certain degree of support.
The sixth chapter measures to expand consumer demand. Based on the classification of influencing factors on the structure, the specific content of clear measures to expand consumption demand: the adjustment of consumption subject is the foundation to expand consumer demand, improve the ability to pay is the core to expand consumer demand, enhance consumer willingness is the key to expand consumption demand, optimize environment is expanding consumer demand for security.
The expansion of consumer demand is of great significance for the economic and social development of our country. The innovation points of this paper are mainly reflected in the following four aspects:
1., a comprehensive analysis of the social and economic factors that influence consumer demand is made. Structural factors are categorization, and they are divided into four aspects: the consumer body, the payment capacity, the willingness to consume and the environment to achieve.
2., we emphasized the major impact of consumption factors on consumption demand. We studied population policy, aging society and population distribution as an important aspect of consumption demand.
3., we analyzed the mechanism of influencing the consumption demand, including the age composition and geographical distribution, income gap, income and expenditure expectation, industrial structure and other factors.
4. the specific content of the measures to expand consumption demand is clarified: to adjust the consumer body, to improve the capacity of payment, to increase the willingness to consume and to optimize the environment.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1

【参考文献】