我国经济增长质量统计分析

发布时间：2018-03-02 08:41

本文关键词： 经济增长绩效经济增长代价经济增长质量统计分析经济增长质量指数主成分分析法　出处：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济增长不仅包括反映经济增长速度的数量方面,还包括反映经济增长优劣程度的质量方面。多年来,我国一味追求经济增长数量而忽略了经济增长质量,于是伴随着经济的高速增长,我国经济出现了越来越多的质量问题。由于经济增长质量的好坏足以对经济、社会、环境等各方面都产生深远影响,因此,如何提高经济增长质量,走出高投入、高消耗、高污染、低效率的经济增长困境,成为我国当前经济发展面临的关键问题。基于此,本文对我国的经济增长质量水平进行了统计测度和分析,以明确我国经济发展的优势和问题所在。首先,对本文的研究背景和研究意义进行了阐述,并全面梳理了国内外现有的经济增长质量相关研究文献,在此基础上介绍了本文的研究思路及研究框架,提出了本文的创新及不足之处。然后,概述我国的经济增长实践,并通过对我国经济增长的绩效与代价的分析,提出我国的经济增长质量问题。在此基础上,本文分别从经济增长的有效性、协调性、稳定性、创新性、持续性和共享性六个方面明确界定了经济增长质量的内涵,并介绍了经济增长质量的测度方法。其次,本文采用时间序列分析和国际比较分析相结合的方法对我国经济增长质量进行相关方面基础影响因素的统计分析。其中有效性分析了我国全要素生产率、劳动生产率和资本生产率；协调性从产业结构、城乡结构、需求结构和贸易结构四个方面进行了分析；稳定性分析了我国的产出缺口、通货膨胀率、失业率情况以及三者之间的影响机制；创新性从创新投入和创新产出两个方面进行了分析；持续性从资源利用效率、环境污染及治理两方面进行了分析；共享性分析了居民生活水平、城乡和区域差距、国民收入分配情况等。再次,本文根据经济增长质量的内涵,构造了由6个方面指数和34个基础指标合成的经济增长质量指数,采用均值化后的协方差矩阵作为输入的主成分分析法,对六个方面指数和经济增长质量综合指数进行测定,并根据测定结果分析我国经济增长质量的主要影响因素。得出结论：我国经济增长质量水平总体上得到了显著提高,但各方面的发展并不同步,特别是稳定性水平不仅没有呈现出改善的迹象而且波动频繁、剧烈。此外,我国的经济增长方式尚未从根本上得到转变,仍面临着投资效率低下、需求结构不合理、经济二元特征明显、经济运行不稳定、能源利用效率低下、环境约束尚未得到有效缓解、城乡差距越来越大和经济增长成果分配不合理等问题。因此,我国经济增长尚且不是高质量的增长。最后,本文针对我国经济增长质量存在的主要问题提出了具有较强操作性的对策建议,希望能为政府部门的管理决策提供重要参考,从而更加有效、更有针对性的改善我国的经济增长质量。
[Abstract]:Economic growth includes not only the quantity of economic growth, but also the quality of economic growth. For many years, China has been blindly pursuing the quantity of economic growth and neglecting the quality of economic growth. As a result, with the rapid economic growth, more and more quality problems appear in our economy. Because the quality of economic growth is good enough to have a profound impact on the economy, society, environment and other aspects, therefore, How to improve the quality of economic growth and get out of the dilemma of high investment, high consumption, high pollution and low efficiency has become the key problem in the current economic development of our country. In this paper, the quality level of economic growth in China is statistically measured and analyzed in order to clarify the advantages and problems of China's economic development. First of all, the research background and significance of this paper are described, and the existing domestic and foreign economic growth quality related research literature is comprehensively combed, on the basis of this, this paper introduces the research ideas and research framework. The innovation and deficiency of this paper are put forward. Then, the paper summarizes the practice of China's economic growth, and through the analysis of the performance and cost of China's economic growth, puts forward the quality of China's economic growth. On this basis, this paper respectively from the effectiveness of economic growth, coordination, This paper defines the connotation of economic growth quality in six aspects: stability, innovation, persistence and sharing, and introduces the measurement method of economic growth quality. Secondly, this paper uses the method of time series analysis and international comparative analysis to analyze the basic factors affecting the quality of China's economic growth. Labor productivity and capital productivity; coordination from four aspects of industrial structure, urban and rural structure, demand structure and trade structure; stability analysis of China's output gap, inflation rate, The unemployment rate and the influence mechanism between them, the innovation analysis from the innovation input and the innovation output, the sustainability from the resource utilization efficiency, the environment pollution and the management two aspects have carried on the analysis; the innovation has carried on the analysis from the innovation input and the innovation output two aspects; Sharing analysis of the standard of living, urban and rural and regional disparities, national income distribution and so on. Thirdly, according to the connotation of economic growth quality, this paper constructs the economic growth quality index which is composed of 6 aspect indices and 34 basic indexes, and adopts the mean covariance matrix as the input principal component analysis method. Based on the analysis of the main influencing factors of the quality of economic growth in China, it is concluded that the quality level of economic growth in China has been significantly improved on the whole. However, the development of various aspects is not synchronized, especially the stability level not only shows no signs of improvement, but also fluctuates frequently and violently. In addition, the mode of economic growth in China has not yet been fundamentally changed, and the investment efficiency is still low. The structure of demand is unreasonable, the dual characteristic of economy is obvious, the economic operation is unstable, the efficiency of energy utilization is low, the environmental constraints have not been effectively alleviated, the gap between urban and rural areas is widening, and the distribution of economic growth results is unreasonable, etc. China's economic growth is not a high-quality growth. Finally, aiming at the main problems existing in the quality of economic growth in China, this paper puts forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions, hoping to provide an important reference for the management decisions of government departments, thus making them more effective. More targeted improvement of China's economic growth quality.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1

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