陕西省耕地非农化与经济增长互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 23:26

本文选题：耕地非农化　切入点：经济增长　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪的陕西在国家西部大开发战略的指引下，经济呈现快速增长态势，工业化水平逐渐提高，城镇化速度不断加快，建设用地的需求量与日俱增，使得大量农用地尤其是耕地转化为非农用地，耕地非农化的需求增加，经济增长与耕地非农化的进程问题关系到未来陕西的粮食安全、生态环境、土地资源管理、社会经济的可持续发展等。在此背景下，研究陕西省耕地非农化与经济增长的动态演变和互动关系，特别是经济转型期的产业结构等变量对耕地非农化需求的影响，对于这样一个经济发展起步相对较晚的西部省市,在新时期的经济增长过程中采用何种方略有效协调、控制耕地非农化与建设用地关系，为耕地资源的合理转化与经济的协调健康发展提供科学依据，对于制定区域社会经济发展战略和建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会具有重要的指导意义。本文从耕地非农化概念和实质入手，围绕经济增长与耕地非农化互动关系这个中心，以耕地非农化（稀缺性理论、机会成本理论、供求均衡理论和可持续发展理论）和经济增长（古典、现代、新古典和新经济增长理论）理论为基础，采用定性描述法、时间序列分析法和计量经济学模型等定量方法来研究两者之间的互动关系。首先是对陕西省经济总量和经济结构、土地概况和耕地非农化总体情况进行描述性分析，并以此为基础，比较耕地非农化与经济增长的发展趋势；其次采用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型（EMC）检验和格兰杰因果关系检验从长期、短期及因果关系三个方面分析耕地非农化与经济增长的关系；再次是从经济增长对耕地非农化的需求和耕地非农化对经济增长的贡献两方面来展开二者的互动关系：以GDP、产业结构、投资与消费水平、财政收支、城乡居民收入和耕地非农面积指标为基础验证耕地的库兹涅茨曲线方程来分析需求；以资本、劳动力、土地与GDP等指标为基础的超越对数生产函数来测算贡献率；最后对本文的研究进行概括和总结，并根据研究结果提出了加强耕地非农调控力度，正确协调经济增长与耕地保护关系等对策，为陕西经济的持续长远发展提供有价值的参考。本文的主要结论有：（1）陕西省处于经济快速增长阶段，耕地非农化呈现波动性。高效的经济增长速度和巨额的增长量带动着全省工业化和城镇化步伐的加快，但在此期间耕地非农面积却不稳定，，这主要是由于国家实施的生态退耕计划。（2）陕西省经济增长、城镇化水平与耕地非农化在长期和短期两方面存在不同的动态效应。从长期来看，经济的快速发展增加了对耕地非农面积的需求；短期内耕地非农化对经济增长和城镇化水平影响相对较小。（3）陕西省经济总量对耕地非农面积的需求呈现出先增加后减少再增加的趋势，大致符合耕地库兹涅茨曲线特征；而经济结构中的不同要素对耕地非农化产生不同程度的影响。（4）在各要素对经济增长的贡献率测算中，资本贡献最大，劳动力占一定份额，耕地非农面积的贡献呈现递增趋势。全生产要素增长率较低，对经济增长的贡献具有—定的波动性。
[Abstract]:In twenty-first Century, Shaanxi in the country's western development strategy under the guidance of economic fast growth, the industrialization level gradually increased, the pace of urbanization is accelerating grow with each passing day, the demand for construction land, making a large number of agricultural land especially farmland into non farmland, farmland conversion increased demand, economic growth and farmland process the conversion problem related to food security, the future of Shaanxi's ecological environment, land resources management, the sustainable development of society and economy. Under this background, the research of Shaanxi province farmland dynamic evolution and interaction between agriculture and economic growth, especially the influence of economic transition of the industrial structure variables on the demand for farmland conversion, for such an economic development started relatively late in western provinces and cities, by which effective coordination policy in the new period of economic growth in the process, the control of cultivated land conversion The relationship between land and construction will provide a scientific basis for the rational transformation of cultivated land resources and the coordinated and healthy development of economy. It has important guiding significance for formulating regional social and economic development strategy and building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.
This article from the concept and essence of farmland conversion, focus on economic growth and cultivated land conversion in the center interaction, with cultivated land conversion (scarcity theory, opportunity cost theory, equilibrium theory and sustainable development theory) and economic growth (classical, modern, neo classical economic growth theory and new growth theory) theory, the the qualitative description method, time series analysis and econometric models and quantitative methods to study the interaction between the two. The first is the Shaanxi province economy and economic structure, the overall conversion of descriptive analysis of land survey and land, and on this basis, comparing the development trend of cultivated land conversion and economic growth; secondly the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model (EMC) test and Grainger causal relation from three aspects of short-term and long-term causal analysis of farmland The relationship between conversion and economic growth; again from economic growth to conversion of cultivated land demand and cultivated land conversion relationship between two aspects of economic growth to two: GDP, industrial structure, investment and consumption level, financial revenue and expenditure, demand analysis of Kuznets curve equation of the income of urban and rural residents and non-agricultural land area the index based verification to cultivated land; to the capital, labor, land and GDP index of translog production function is the foundation to measure the contribution rate; finally the research summary and conclusion of this article, and according to the research results put forward to strengthen farmland regulation, proper coordination of economic growth and cultivated land protection measures. Provide a valuable reference for Shaanxi's sustained economic development in the long term.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) in Shaanxi Province in the period of rapid economic growth, farmland conversion showed volatility. High economic growth rate and huge growth driven by the industrialization and urbanization accelerate the pace, but in the meantime the farmland area is not stable, this is mainly due to the implementation of the country's ecological restoration plan.
(2) the economic growth of Shaanxi Province, the dynamic effect of different conversion in the two aspects of long-term and short-term non urbanization level and the cultivated land. In the long run, the rapid development of economy increase to the non-agricultural area of cultivated land demand; the short term effect of farmland conversion to the level of economic growth and urbanization are relatively small.
(3) the total demand for arable land in Shaanxi province showed a trend of first increase, then decrease and then increase, which generally accords with the characteristics of Kuznets curve. However, different factors in the economic structure have different effects on farmland conversion.
(4) in the calculation of the contribution rate of each factor to the economic growth, capital contribution is the largest and labor force occupies a certain share. The contribution of cultivated land to non-agricultural area is increasing. The growth rate of total factor of production is relatively low, and the contribution to the economic growth has a certain volatility.

【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F323.211

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