我国服务贸易对经济增长的影响问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 09:37

本文选题：服务贸易　切入点：经济增长　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文在对外贸易乘数论、贸易发动机理论、供给启动论等相关理论的基础上，分析了我国服务贸易对经济增长的影响问题。首先，介绍了我国服务贸易发展现状和特点，并对比了中国、美国和印度的服务贸易TC、RCA指数，结果显示我国的国际竞争力比较弱，非常不利于发挥服务贸易对经济增长的作用力。其次，重点分析服务贸易拉动经济增长的机制，尤其是结构增长、人力资本积累、技术进步等间接效应，这是促进经济可持续增长的关键因素。在接下来的实证分析中，又从两个角度进一步探究我国服务贸易对经济增长的影响。一是，考虑到服务贸易的四种模式，本文将其分为跨境服务贸易与商业存在两大部分，，分别与GDP做回归分析，得出结论：我国服务贸易出口和进口对经济增长都具有积极效应，出口效应更为明显；服务业利用外资与经济增长存在显著正相关。二是，由于我国目前仍以传统服务贸易为主，本文又将服务贸易分为运输、旅游、其他商务服务三大类进行计量分析，结论表明我国应逐渐调整服务贸易内部结构，积极发展现代服务贸易。最后，本文针对我国服务贸易存在的问题，结合美印服务贸易的政策和启示，提出中国发展服务贸易的可行性建议。
[Abstract]:On the basis of foreign trade multiplier theory, trade engine theory, supply start theory and other related theories, this paper analyzes the impact of China's service trade on economic growth. Firstly, it introduces the current situation and characteristics of China's service trade development. By comparing the TCU RCA index of service trade between China, the United States and India, the results show that China's international competitiveness is relatively weak, which is not conducive to exerting the force of service trade on economic growth. Secondly, This paper focuses on the analysis of the mechanism of service trade driving economic growth, especially the indirect effects of structural growth, human capital accumulation and technological progress, which are the key factors to promote sustainable economic growth. First, considering the four modes of service trade, this paper divides it into two parts of cross-border service trade and commercial existence, and makes regression analysis with GDP, respectively. It is concluded that the export and import of China's service trade have positive effects on economic growth, and the export effect is more obvious. There is a significant positive correlation between the utilization of foreign capital and economic growth in the service industry. Since our country is still dominated by traditional service trade, this paper classifies service trade into three categories: transportation, tourism and other business services. The conclusion shows that China should gradually adjust the internal structure of service trade. Finally, aiming at the problems existing in China's service trade, combined with the policy and enlightenment of U.S.-India service trade, this paper puts forward some feasible suggestions for China's development of service trade.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F752.68

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