中国碳排放与产业结构关联研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 19:42

本文选题：碳排放　切入点：产业结构　出处：《北方工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文利用面板数据模型和VAR模型,从产值、就业和技术结构三个角度对中国碳排放和产业结构的关联关系进行了实证分析。主要内容有以下三个方面： (1)对碳排放和产值结构的关联分析是基于中国30个省市1997-2010年的面板数据,以全国、东、中、西部地区为划分对象,通过实证检验,选取个体时点双固定变截距模型进行拟合。研究表明,1)全国及三大地区的碳排放强度和产业结构间均存在协整关系。2)产业结构和碳排放强度的影响关系显著,即通过调整产业结构能够有效减少碳排放。3)东部地区的碳排放基数最小,碳排放强度受产业结构调整的影响最大；而中、西部地区碳排放基数较大,碳排放强度受产业结构调整的影响较小 (2)对中国碳排放和就业结构的关联分析是基于中国8个行业2003-2010年的面板数据,通过实证检验,选取变系数个体固定效应模型进行拟合。研究表明,1)碳排放强度和产业的就业结构间存在长期均衡的协整关系；2)产业的就业结构和碳排放强度的影响关系显著；3)中国碳排放的行业差异显著。 (3)利用VAR模型研究了中国碳排放和技术结构的关联关系,构建了碳排放强度和技术结构的动态系统,以RD经费投入强度、RD人员占全部就业人员的比例、单位GDP的申请授权专利数代表技术结构来进行研究。研究表明,1)碳排放强度和RD经费投入强度、RD人员比例、单位GDP的授权专利间分别存在长期均衡的协整关系；2)RD经费投入强度、RD人员比例、单位GDP的授权专利是碳排放强度变化的Granger因果原因,反之不成立；3)碳排放强度和技术结构间存在有一种动态的互动关系。最后,基于以上实证分析结论,提出了中国在低碳经济下产业结构调整的政策建议：(1)针对不同区域的具体发展情况,需制定相应的区域减排政策；(2)调整产业结构,促进传统产业升级,大力发展服务业；(3)加快技术进步是实现减排的有效途径。
[Abstract]:Using panel data model and VAR model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between China's carbon emissions and industrial structure from the perspectives of output value, employment and technology structure. The main contents are as follows:. The correlation analysis of carbon emission and output structure is based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2010. The study shows that there is a cointegration relationship between carbon emission intensity and industrial structure in China and three major regions. 2) the relationship between industrial structure and carbon emission intensity is significant. That is, by adjusting the industrial structure, we can effectively reduce carbon emissions. 3) the carbon emission base in the eastern region is the smallest, and the carbon emission intensity is most affected by the industrial structure adjustment; in the middle, the western region has a larger carbon emission base. Carbon emission intensity is less affected by industrial structure adjustment. The correlation analysis of China's carbon emissions and employment structure is based on panel data from 2003-2010 for eight industries in China. The study shows that there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between the carbon emission intensity and the employment structure of the industry (2) the relationship between the employment structure and the carbon emission intensity of the industry is significant (3). Industry differences in carbon emissions in China are significant. Using VAR model, this paper studies the correlation between carbon emission and technology structure in China, and constructs a dynamic system of carbon emission intensity and technology structure. The number of patents granted per unit GDP represents the technical structure of the research. The research shows that the carbon emission intensity and R D investment intensity are the proportion of R D personnel. There is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between the authorized patents of unit GDP and the ratio of R D personnel to R D personnel. The authorized patent of unit GDP is the cause of Granger causality of carbon emission intensity change. On the contrary, there is a dynamic interaction between carbon emission intensity and technical structure. Finally, based on the above empirical analysis conclusions, the paper puts forward the policy suggestion of industrial structure adjustment in China under low-carbon economy: (1) according to the specific development situation of different regions, we need to formulate corresponding regional emission reduction policies to adjust the industrial structure. Promoting the upgrading of traditional industries and developing the service industry vigorously) accelerating the technological progress is an effective way to achieve emission reduction.
【学位授予单位】：北方工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X22;F224;F121.3;F121.3

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