财政支农、经济波动与农村居民消费

发布时间：2018-03-14 11:01

本文选题：财政对农支出　切入点：经济波动　出处：《贵州财经大学学报》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在消费者效用最大化的框架基础上,构建财政对农支出、经济波动与农村居民消费的动态最优化模型。理论分析表明,财政对农支出能够促进农村居民消费,经济波动会抑制农村居民消费。通过运用中国1985—2011年的相关数据,在使用多个工具变量消除内生性后,利用2SLS和GMM方法对理论分析的结论进行实证检验。结果发现,财政对农支出确实对农村居民消费有显著的正向作用,经济波动则对农村居民消费有显著的负向作用。实证结果还表明,滞后二期的农村居民消费对当期消费有抑制作用,滞后一期则具有促进作用,这说明农村居民消费具有一定时期内的计划性和"棘轮效应"。
[Abstract]:Based on the framework of maximization of consumer utility, a dynamic optimization model of fiscal to agricultural expenditure, economic fluctuation and rural residents' consumption is constructed. The theoretical analysis shows that fiscal expenditure on agriculture can promote rural residents' consumption. The economic fluctuation will restrain the rural residents' consumption. By using the relevant data from 1985 to 2011 in China, after using many tool variables to eliminate the endogenicity, the conclusions of the theoretical analysis are tested by using 2SLS and GMM methods. The results show that, Fiscal expenditure on agriculture does have a significant positive effect on rural residents' consumption, while economic fluctuations have a significant negative effect on rural residents' consumption. The empirical results also show that rural residents' consumption in the second phase of lag has a restraining effect on current consumption. The lag period has the promotion function, which indicates that the rural residents' consumption has the planning and ratchet effect in a certain period.
【作者单位】：南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;江苏第二师范学院;南京师范大学中北学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“考虑目标差异的政府R&D资助对企业技术创新的影响研究”(批准号:G0307) 江苏省社会科学基金项目“江苏金融集聚区建设研究”(批准号:13EYB006)的资助
【分类号】：F812.8;F124;F126.1

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