增长阶段转换的成因、挑战和对策

发布时间：2018-03-14 13:28

本文选题：增长阶段转换　切入点：新常态　出处：《管理世界》2014年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国当前潜在增速回落属于后发国家追赶进程中的阶段转换而不是追赶周期的结束。我国的后发优势并未终结,只是内容和结构发生变化,压缩式增长的条件和潜力依然存在。当前的阶段转换是从数量扩张型高增长转向质量提升型中高速增长。增长动力正在发生两个关键性变化,一是经济增长从同时依靠要素投入和TFP增长转向更多依靠TFP增长;二是TFP增长的主导形式发生变化,由主要依靠资源要素从闲置状态或低效部门向高效部门的转移,逐步转变为更多依靠行业内部企业之间或不同技术产能之间优胜劣汰。面对增长阶段转换期的挑战和风险,需要在保持经济形势基本稳定、风险总体可控的前提下,不失时机地推进各项改革,尽快构筑起有利于增长阶段转换和新增长模式形成的体制基础。
[Abstract]:The current decline in China's potential growth rate is due to the phase shift in the catch-up process of the latecomer countries rather than the end of the catch-up cycle. China's late-development advantage has not ended, but the content and structure have changed. The conditions and potential of compressed growth remain. The current phase shift is from quantitative expansion to high quality growth. Two key changes are taking place in the dynamics of growth. First, economic growth has shifted from relying on factor inputs and TFP growth at the same time to relying more on TFP growth; second, the dominant form of TFP growth has changed, from the transfer of resource elements from idle or inefficient sectors to efficient sectors. Gradually changing to rely more on the survival of the fittest among enterprises in the industry or between different technological capacity. In the face of the challenges and risks in the transition period of the growth stage, we need to maintain the basic stability of the economic situation and the overall control of the risks. We should seize the opportunity to push forward the various reforms and build an institutional foundation conducive to the transformation of the growth stage and the formation of a new growth model as soon as possible.
【作者单位】：国务院发展研究中心;
【分类号】：F124

【共引文献】