FDI与出口贸易对天津经济增长贡献度的比较分析

发布时间：2018-03-16 18:14

本文选题：外商直接投资　切入点：出口贸易　出处：《辽宁大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：冠有“中国第三大城市”之称的天津，位于环渤海经济圈内，是仅次于北京的北方第二大经济政治中心。自改革开放以来，天津市稳健的经济发展一直保持在国内领先水平，并凭借其港口城市的便利立体交通运输体系，大力倡导“西进东出”、“出口导向”的经济发展战略，不断发展自己的出口贸易产业。中国加入世贸组织以后，天津更是充分利用其综合功能优势积极寻求国际贸易伙伴，应对国际金融危机的同时努力发展出口贸易以带动经济增长。可以说，作为拉动国民经济增长三驾马车之一的“出口贸易”是促进天津经济增长强有力的催化剂。近年来，随着作为天津触角和龙头的天津滨海新区被纳入“十一五”、“十二五”等国家总体发展战略后，滨海新区优惠的政策制度、良好的投资环境吸引跨国公司纷纷涌入，使得外商直接投资（简称FDI）总量急剧扩大，逐渐成为拉动全市经济增长的重要力量。面对天津外商直接投资、出口贸易和经济都保持较快增长这一情况，会引发这样一种思考：外商直接投资和出口贸易这二者究竟哪一个对天津经济增长的贡献度更大；今后天津经济的发展战略应该更偏重于实施“出口导向”政策，还是利用滨海新区高速发展这一契机加快引入外商直接投资？为了解决这些问题，有必要对天津外商直接投资和出口贸易的现状和特点及其对经济的拉动效果进行全面系统的比较分析。这也为天津今后更好地制定经济政策、实现技术进步、优化产业结构等提供了有力的实证支持和帮助。该论文在回顾前人相关文献的基础上，首先介绍了FDI与出口贸易对经济增长贡献作用的相关理论，并总结了二者促进经济增长的理论机制，为后面的实证分析提供有力的理论基础。其次，搜集天津市1990以来相关统计数据，分别剖析了天津经济发展、引进FDI以及出口贸易的发展现状和特点，并从总量、贡献度和拉动度三个角度比较了FDI与出口贸易对经济增长的贡献作用。再次，利用1990—2010年间的时间序列数据，在理论机制分析的指导下，构建适当的经济模型，实证分析了外商直接投资与出口贸易对天津经济增长的贡献度大小。实证部分通过协整检验得出，，FDI和出口贸易与天津市生产总值、资本存量的增加、就业人数的上涨和技术水平的提高有着长期稳定的协整关系。通过回归分析得出，出口贸易比FDI对天津经济增长起到更大的贡献作用，但二者贡献水平的差距不大。而格兰杰因果检验表明，经济的高速增长会使得外商直接投资的流入加快，而且FDI反过来又会进一步推动经济增长，二者之间形成良性循环；出口贸易的增加是经济增长的原因但反之不成立，说明出口贸易的增长更容易受国内外政治经济形势变化的影响。一旦国际经济不稳定，出口贸易会受到较大冲击，无法起到快速带动经济增长的作用。所以想要保持天津经济的长期稳定增长还应该继续加大引进外商直接投资的力度。最后，针对天津市经济增长、FDI与出口贸易的现状和特点，结合实证分析的相关结论，对天津未来经济更好更快的发展提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:The crown of "third city" Chinese called Tianjin, located in the Bohai economic circle, Beijing is second only to the second big northern economic and political center. Since the reform and opening up, Tianjin city has maintained a stable economic development in the domestic leading level, and with convenient traffic and transportation system, the port city, advocate "from east to west", "export oriented" economic development strategy, continue to develop their own export industry. After China joined WTO, Tianjin is to make full use of the advantages of comprehensive functions of actively seeking international trade partners, in response to the international financial crisis and try to develop the export trade to promote economic growth. It can be said, as the national economic growth is one of the three carriages of the "export trade" is a powerful catalyst to promote economic growth in Tianjin. In recent years, with Tianjin as the leading angle and Tianjin Binhai New Area has been incorporated into the "11th Five-Year", "12th Five-Year national overall development strategy", the Binhai New Area of preferential policies, good investment environment to attract multinational companies have entered the foreign direct investment (FDI) total is expanding rapidly, has gradually become an important force driving the economic growth.
In the face of foreign direct investment in Tianjin, export trade and economy to maintain a rapid growth in this situation will lead to such a kind of thinking: foreign direct investment and export trade of the two which is a contribution to Tianjin's economic growth to a greater degree; in the future development of Tianjin's economy should be more emphasis on the implementation of the "export oriented" the policy, or make use of the opportunity of rapid development of Binhai New Area to accelerate the introduction of foreign direct investment? In order to solve these problems, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive system of comparative analysis on the current situation and characteristics of Tianjin foreign direct investment and export trade and its stimulating effect on the economy. This is Tianjin in the future the formulation of economic policy, to achieve technological progress provide empirical support and help to effectively optimize the industrial structure.
This paper based on the review of previous literature, first introduced the related theory of FDI and export trade's contribution to economic growth, the theory of mechanism and summarizes the two to promote economic growth, provides a strong theoretical basis for the later empirical analysis. Secondly, from the city of Tianjin since 1990 the relevant statistical data, analyzes the Tianjin economic development, development status and characteristics of the introduction of FDI and export trade, and from the total amount, pulling rate and contribution rate of three compared with FDI and export trade's contribution to economic growth. Thirdly, using time series data from 1990 to 2010 years, the theory of mechanism analysis under the guidance of constructing a suitable economic model the empirical analysis of foreign direct investment and export trade on economic growth in Tianjin. The contribution of the empirical part obtained through cointegration test, FDI and export trade and total production in Tianjin City Value, the increase of capital stock, there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between employment rose and technological level. Through regression analysis, the contribution of the export trade of more than FDI to the economic growth in Tianjin to play, but the contribution of the two level of the gap is small. And Grainger causality test shows that the rapid economic growth the causes of FDI to accelerate, and FDI in turn will further promote economic growth, form a virtuous cycle between the two; the increase of export trade is the cause of economic growth but not vice versa, illustrate the impact of the export trade growth are more vulnerable to changes in the domestic and international political and economic situation. Once the international economic instability, exports will be hit, can not play the role of promoting economic growth rapidly. So I want to maintain long-term and stable economic growth in Tianjin should continue to increase the introduction of foreign The intensity of business direct investment. Finally, according to the current situation and characteristics of Tianjin's economic growth, FDI and export trade, combined with the relevant conclusions of empirical analysis, we put forward relevant policy recommendations for the future and better and faster development of Tianjin's economy.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.8;F127

【参考文献】