城镇化对于居民消费率的影响:理论模型与实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-17 20:15

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：集聚效应　出处：《经济研究》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文通过建立一个包含多种类型消费者(城市市民、城市非市民及农民)和地方政府的理论框架,分析了城镇化对于我国居民消费率的影响,并选取全国176个城市2001年到2010年的数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,城镇化水平提高能够推动城市消费率的增长,但城镇化速度过快则会阻碍消费率增长。实证显示这一关系在我国不同地区间存在显著区别,中部城市比东部城市更容易通过扩大人口规模来提高城市生产能力和消费率增速,而东部城市只有通过提升农民工福利待遇,才能够促进消费率增长。进一步,本文还通过参数估计给出了我国城市人口集聚效应的产出弹性。
[Abstract]:By establishing a theoretical framework including various types of consumers (urban citizens, urban non-citizens and farmers) and local governments, this paper analyzes the impact of urbanization on the consumption rate of Chinese residents. The data of 176 cities in China from 2001 to 2010 are selected for empirical test. The results show that the increase of urbanization level can promote the growth of urban consumption rate. However, too fast urbanization will hinder the growth of consumption rate. Empirical results show that there are significant differences between different regions in China. Central cities are more likely to increase urban production capacity and consumption rate growth by expanding population size than those in eastern cities. However, the eastern cities can only promote the increase of consumption rate by improving the welfare treatment of migrant workers. Furthermore, the paper also gives the output elasticity of urban population agglomeration effect by parameter estimation.
【作者单位】：北京大学光华管理学院;
【分类号】：F126.1

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