高经济增长及能源消耗趋势下的上海市工业污染排放量预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 02:37

本文选题：工业污染　切入点：排放量　出处：《江南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：上海是我国第一大城市，经济金融中心，特殊性决定了重要性。改革开放以来，上海人口迅速增长，尤其是城市化进程加快，经济迅猛发展，外来人口迅速膨胀，能源消耗增加，工业污染严重，危害人类身心健康。人口是一切问题产生的根源和载体，如何处理各因素之间的关系，找到一条兼顾人口-经济-能源-环境系统的途径势在必行。高经济增长及能源消耗趋势下的上海市工业污染排放量预测问题的研究主要是以科学发展观为指导，从系统论角度和可持续发展的观念深入研究人口，经济，能源和环境污染的辩证关系以及人口数量，经济增长，，能源消耗对工业污染排放量的影响。本文遵循以下研究思路对课题进行展开：全文共分为六个部分。第一部分主要阐述了论文的背景，国内外研究现状，论文的整体思路框架及其创新点，指出了在上海市人口快速增长，经济快速发展以及能源消耗严重的趋势下对工业污染排放量预测的必要性和意义。第二部分主要阐述了本文的理论基础以及人口、经济、能源与环境基本相关理论，预测方法的介绍和优缺点的比较，为后文的分析和预测做了铺垫。第三部分对上海市人口、经济、能源和工业污染进行了现状分析，客观实际地分析了上海的人口状况、经济增长、能源消耗和工业污染排放的情况，了解上海市目前的发展和问题，在此基础上，为下一步对上海市人口、经济、能源和工业污染进行关联分析以及预测上海市工业污染排放量提供了背景。第四部分主要是对上海市人口、经济、能源与工业污染的关联分析。根据准确数据，建立模型，分别论证了上海市人口状况、经济增长、能源消耗与工业污染排放量的相关性，进而以上海市工业三废排放量为因变量，上海市常住人口，GDP，城市居民家庭人均消费支出，能源消耗总量为自变量建立关联模型，为下一步的预测准备了条件。第五部分对上海市工业污染排放量进行预测研究。介绍了上海市工业污染排放量预测的内涵，分类，原则及程序，并根据之前建立的关联模型，对上海市工业污染排放量进行预测研究，并对预测结果进行定量定性的分析。第六部分结合文章，根据客观结果给出建议和展望。本文选取了四个自变量，即上海市常住人口、上海市GDP、城市居民家庭人均消费支出、能源消耗总量，经分析这四个自变量与要预测的目标变量具有高度相关性，因此构建了一种基于时间序列的四元非线性回归预测模型，并进行了分析和评估，模型具有较高的拟合精度，能客观反映上海市工业污染排放量，可为决策者提供参考，提高相关部门的管理水平。
[Abstract]:Shanghai is the largest city in China, the economic and financial center, the particularity determines the importance. Since the reform and opening up, the population of Shanghai has increased rapidly, especially the rapid urbanization process, the rapid economic development, the rapid expansion of the foreign population. Increasing energy consumption, serious industrial pollution and endangering human physical and mental health. Population is the root cause and carrier of all problems, and how to deal with the relationship between various factors, It is imperative to find a way to take into account the population, economy, energy and environment system. The research on the prediction of industrial pollution emissions in Shanghai under the trend of high economic growth and energy consumption is mainly guided by the scientific concept of development. The dialectical relationship among population, economy, energy and environmental pollution, population size and economic growth are studied from the perspective of system theory and the concept of sustainable development. The impact of energy consumption on industrial pollution emissions. This paper follows the following research ideas to carry out the project:. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part mainly describes the background of the paper, the current research situation at home and abroad, the overall thinking framework of the paper and its innovation points, and points out the rapid population growth in Shanghai. The necessity and significance of forecasting industrial pollution emissions under the trend of rapid economic development and serious energy consumption. The second part mainly expounds the theoretical basis of this paper and the basic related theories of population, economy, energy and environment. The introduction of forecasting methods and the comparison of their advantages and disadvantages pave the way for the following analysis and prediction. The third part analyzes the current situation of Shanghai's population, economy, energy and industrial pollution, and analyzes the population situation of Shanghai objectively and realistically. Economic growth, energy consumption and industrial pollution emissions, to understand the current development and problems of Shanghai, on the basis of which, for the next step to Shanghai's population, economy, The correlation analysis of energy and industrial pollution and the forecast of industrial pollution emissions in Shanghai provide the background. 4th part is mainly about the correlation analysis of population, economy, energy and industrial pollution in Shanghai. The correlation between the population situation, economic growth, energy consumption and industrial pollution emissions in Shanghai is demonstrated respectively. Furthermore, with the discharge of three industrial wastes in Shanghai as the dependent variable, the permanent resident population of Shanghai is GDPP, and the per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, The total amount of energy consumption is independent variable to establish the correlation model, which prepares the condition for the next forecast. 5th part carries on the forecast research to the Shanghai industrial pollution emission, introduces the connotation and classification of the Shanghai industrial pollution emission forecast, Principles and procedures, and based on the previous correlation model, the prediction of industrial pollution emissions in Shanghai is studied, and the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the forecast results is carried out. Part 6th, combined with the article, gives suggestions and prospects according to the objective results. This paper selects four independent variables, that is, Shanghai resident population, Shanghai GDP, per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, total energy consumption, and analyzes that these four independent variables are highly correlated with the target variables to be predicted. Therefore, a quaternion nonlinear regression prediction model based on time series is constructed, and analyzed and evaluated. The model has high fitting precision, can objectively reflect the industrial pollution emissions in Shanghai, and can provide reference for decision makers. Improve the management level of related departments.
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X322;F124

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