关于外汇占款影响我国消费价格水平的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 03:21

本文选题：外汇占款　切入点：消费价格水平　出处：《兰州大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年来我国经常账户和资本金融账户积累了巨额的顺差,在当前的外汇制度下巨额的顺差催生了高额的外汇占款。我国外汇占款额从1994年的4481.8亿人民币增长到2010年的22万亿人民币,平均每年增长25.74%。由于央行的冲销操作具有不可持续性,外汇占款的逐年增加会导致国民经济流动性过剩,居民消费价格水平出现持续膨胀的趋势。随着外汇占款额的增加,从2000年到2010年间发生了3轮持续期较长的价格通胀,尤其是2008年的消费价格水平增长率有数月都在8%以上,且2010年第二季度发生的价格通胀至今仍没有明显的改观。本文参考了大量文献和前人研究成果,发现大量的研究工作是从货币数量的角度来分析外汇占款对消费价格水平的影响。根据当前我国经济运行的实际情况,本文增加了信贷渠道作为考察对象,分别从信贷规模角度和货币数量角度来分析该问题。本文选取1991年至2011年的相关经济数据,使用eviews软件采用实证分析的方法来论证了外汇占款通过货币数量传导渠道和信贷传导渠道对消费价格水平的影响状况。本文发现外汇占款对消费价格水平的膨胀作用显著,通过货币数量渠道和信贷渠道都能引起消费价格水平的膨胀。其中货币数量传导渠道作用显著,外汇占款通过扩张货币供应量能够明显的提高价格水平,货币的过量发行导致了近几年的价格水平的膨胀；而信贷渠道处于半有效的状态,外汇占款对信贷规模的扩张作用不明显,国家逆经济周期的信贷控制措施阻碍了外汇占款对信贷规模的扩张作用,信贷控制措施抑制了投资和消费的高涨从而抑制了价格水平上涨的趋势。针对上述发现,本文提出了缓解外汇占款的增加所导致的价格水平的膨胀的措施：推进我国外汇管理体制的市场化改革、实现进出口贸易自由化和优化外商投资结构、完善央行外汇占款冲销机制,合理调控货币供应量。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has accumulated a huge surplus in its current account and capital financial account. The huge surplus under the current foreign exchange system has given rise to high foreign exchange holdings. The amount of foreign exchange in China has increased from 448.18 billion yuan in 1994 to 22 trillion yuan in 2010. The average annual growth rate is 25.740.Because the central bank's sterilisation operation is unsustainable, the annual increase in foreign exchange holdings will lead to excess liquidity in the national economy, and the consumer price level of residents will continue to expand. With the increase in the amount of foreign exchange funds, From 2000 to 2010, there were three rounds of long-running price inflation, especially in 2008, where consumer price levels grew at more than 8 percent for months, and price inflation in the second quarter of 2010 has not improved significantly. Referring to a large number of literatures and previous research results, this paper finds that a great deal of research work is to analyze the influence of foreign exchange on consumer price level from the point of view of monetary quantity. In this paper, credit channels are added to analyze the problem from the perspective of credit scale and monetary quantity. This paper selects the relevant economic data from 1991 to 2011. In this paper, we use the eviews software to demonstrate the influence of foreign exchange on the consumer price level through the monetary quantity transmission channel and credit transmission channel, and find that the foreign exchange occupying fund has a significant effect on the inflation of consumer price level. Both the monetary quantity channel and the credit channel can cause the inflation of the consumer price level. Among them, the monetary quantity transmission channel plays a significant role, and the foreign exchange occupying fund can obviously increase the price level by expanding the money supply. The excessive issuance of money has led to the inflation of price levels in recent years, while the credit channels are in a semi-effective state, and the expansion of foreign exchange holdings on the scale of credit is not obvious. In response to the findings, the country's countercyclical credit controls have hindered the expansion of foreign exchange holdings on the scale of credit, which has restrained the upsurge in investment and consumption and thus the rise in price levels. This paper puts forward some measures to alleviate the inflation of the price level caused by the increase of foreign exchange funds: to promote the market-oriented reform of China's foreign exchange management system, to realize the liberalization of import and export trade and to optimize the structure of foreign investment. We will improve the central bank's mechanism for sterilizing foreign exchange holdings and rationally control the money supply.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F832.6

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