城市化、产业结构与碳排放的动态关系研究—基于VAR模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-27 11:24

本文选题：城市化　切入点：碳排放　出处：《生态经济》2014年11期

【摘要】：选取我国1978~2011年城市化水平、产业结构及碳排放量的数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应及方差分解技术对中国城市化、产业结构与碳排放之间的长期及短期动态关系进行综合研究。结果表明:我国的城市化水平、产业结构与碳排放之间存在长期的协整关系,城市化水平提高是导致碳排放量增加的原因,反之不成立;碳排放与第二产业之间也存在单向因果关系,碳排放量增加是第二产业增长的格兰杰原因,说明具有高碳排放量的高耗能产业是我国第二产业的重要支柱,支撑着我国的工业化进程,我国的经济增长遵循从"排放"到"增长"的路径。从三者之间的动态影响关系来看,城市化水平、第二产业对碳排放的影响具有滞后效应,且长期的影响显著。我国由"排放"到"增长"的因果关系使得未来阶段容易陷入经济增长和环境保护的两难困境,因此,必须从产业结构调整、低碳城市化等方面入手逐步实现节能减排的目标。
[Abstract]:The urbanization level, industrial structure and carbon emissions of China from 1978 to 2011 were selected, and the urbanization of China was studied by using unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality analysis, error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition technology. The long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between industrial structure and carbon emissions is comprehensively studied. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between industrial structure and carbon emissions in China. The increase in the level of urbanization is the cause of the increase of carbon emissions, whereas the contrary does not hold; there is also a one-way causal relationship between carbon emissions and the secondary industry, and the increase of carbon emissions is the Granger cause of the growth of the secondary industry. It shows that the high energy consumption industry with high carbon emissions is an important pillar of the secondary industry in China and supports the industrialization process of our country. China's economic growth follows the path from "emission" to "growth". From the dynamic relationship between the three, the urbanization level and the impact of the secondary industry on carbon emissions have a lag effect. And the long-term impact is obvious. The causality from "emission" to "growth" in China makes it easy to fall into the dilemma of economic growth and environmental protection in the future. Therefore, we must adjust the industrial structure. Low-carbon urbanization and other aspects to gradually achieve energy conservation and emission reduction goals.
【作者单位】：西北大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F299.2;F121.3;F205

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