服务贸易对中国经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 11:38

本文选题：服务贸易　切入点：经济增长　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：从20世纪60年代以来,国际贸易竞争的焦点正逐渐从货物贸易向服务贸易转移,服务贸易将成为未来经济增长的新动力。与国外贸易结构不同,国内贸易总规模虽大,但仍以货物贸易为主,即中国的经济增长过度依靠货物出口来拉动。而随着我国经济和货物贸易多年来的快速发展,资源能源瓶颈日益凸显,加之贸易摩擦逐渐增多。中国经济主要依靠货物贸易发展的模式已难以为继,发展服务贸易,转变贸易和经济增长方式已是摆在中国政府面前的一项紧迫任务。鉴于此,正确认识服务贸易对中国经济增长的影响意义重大。本文的实证分析部分通过对中国服务贸易总量与经济增长、中国服务贸易结构与经济增长进行了包括平稳性检验、简单线性回归、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验的计量分析来检验中国服务贸易与经济增长之间的关系。实证结果表明,整体和分部门的服务贸易对经济增长均有促进作用,因此本文提出中国应该重视服务贸易的发展,积极调整服务业结构,技术知识类服务业需要更多政府支持、建立和完善服务贸易管理机构和体制,建立健全服务贸易法律法规等政策,以促进中国服务贸易快速发展,缩小与世界各国的差距,从而实现经济增长。
[Abstract]:Since the 1960s, the focus of international trade competition has gradually shifted from trade in goods to trade in services, and trade in services will become a new driving force for economic growth in the future. However, goods trade is still the main factor, that is, China's economic growth depends excessively on the export of goods. However, with the rapid development of China's economy and trade in goods for many years, the bottleneck of resources and energy has become increasingly prominent. In addition, trade frictions are gradually increasing. The pattern of China's economy mainly relying on the development of trade in goods has become unsustainable. It is an urgent task for the Chinese government to develop trade in services and change the mode of trade and economic growth. In view of this, It is of great significance to correctly understand the impact of service trade on China's economic growth. The empirical analysis part of this paper includes the stability test, simple linear regression of the total amount of China's service trade and economic growth, the structure of China's trade in services and economic growth. Co-integration test and Granger causality test are used to test the relationship between China's trade in services and economic growth. The empirical results show that the overall and subsectoral trade in services can promote economic growth. Therefore, this paper suggests that China should attach importance to the development of trade in services and actively adjust the structure of service industries. In order to promote the rapid development of China's service trade and narrow the gap with the rest of the world, more government support is needed to establish and perfect the management agencies and systems of service trade, and to establish and perfect laws and regulations on service trade in order to promote the rapid development of China's service trade. To achieve economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F752.68

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