江西省城镇居民消费结构变迁研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 12:31

本文选题：江西省　切入点：城镇居民消费　出处：《江西师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机的背景下，“保增长、扩内需、调结构”成为现阶段我国经济发展的首要任务。江西“十二五”规划指出，要以扩大内需为导向，增强消费能力，，释放消费潜能，以消费带动江西省经济又好又快发展。江西省城镇居民作为消费的主力军，对江西省的消费态势起着决定性作用。自改革开放以来，我国经历了从计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转变，同时，城镇居民的消费结构也发生了巨大的变迁。一方面江西省城镇居民的消费结构实现了不断的优化和升级；另一方面江西省城镇居民的消费结构也存在一定的问题。因此，如何扩大城镇居民消费，优化消费结构，发挥城镇居民消费在经济增长中的作用具有重大的现实意义。本文从经济史的角度出发，对1978年-2011年江西省城镇居民消费的统计数据资料进行实证研究。根据恩格尔系数分析结果，1978年-2011年江西城镇居民的消费情况经历了两个阶段，即1978年—1998年基本实现温饱的消费结构阶段和1999年—2011年基本实现小康的消费结构阶段。结合计量经济学的方法，采用扩展性线性支出系统模型，对每一阶段通过恩格尔系数分析、时间序列分析、横截面数据分析以及弹性分析，以此探寻江西省城镇居民消费结构变迁的特征和规律。从分析中发现，江西省城镇居民的消费水平有了很大的提高，消费结构经历了从温饱型到小康型再到富裕型消费结构的变迁，消费结构实现了不断的优化和升级。然而，相对于全国其他城镇居民的消费水平，江西城镇居民的收入水平偏低，贫富差距较大；消费需求总体不足，消费需求增长趋缓；恩格尔系数依然偏高。为此提出促进江西省城镇居民消费结构合理化对策，一方面为促进江西省乃至中部地区的消费市场的开发，优化消费结构提供理论依据和政策建议；而另一方面则是为了促进江西省经济增长，缩小与其他地区的差距，促进区域经济的协调可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Against the background of the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, "maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand, and adjusting the structure" have become the primary tasks of China's economic development at this stage. Jiangxi's 12th Five-Year Plan pointed out that it is necessary to take the expansion of domestic demand as the orientation. To enhance consumption ability, release consumption potential, and promote the economy of Jiangxi Province to develop well and rapidly with consumption, the urban residents of Jiangxi Province, as the main force of consumption, play a decisive role in the consumption situation of Jiangxi Province. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced a transition from a planned economy to a market economy, and at the same time, On the one hand, the consumption structure of the urban residents in Jiangxi Province has been optimized and upgraded constantly; on the other hand, there are some problems in the consumption structure of the urban residents in Jiangxi Province. How to expand the consumption of urban residents, optimize the consumption structure, and give play to the role of urban residents' consumption in the economic growth has great practical significance. From the point of view of economic history, this paper makes an empirical study on the statistical data of urban residents' consumption in Jiangxi Province from 1978 to 2011. According to the results of Engel's coefficient analysis, the consumption of urban residents in Jiangxi Province from 1978 to 2011 has undergone two stages. That is, the consumption structure stage of food and clothing from 1978 to 1998 and the consumption structure stage of well-off society from 1999 to 2011. Combined with econometrics method, the extended linear expenditure system model is adopted, and the Engel coefficient analysis is used for each stage. Time series analysis, cross-section data analysis and elastic analysis are used to explore the characteristics and laws of the changes in the consumption structure of urban residents in Jiangxi Province. From the analysis, it is found that the consumption level of urban residents in Jiangxi Province has been greatly improved. The consumption structure has experienced the changes from the pattern of food and clothing to the type of Xiao Kang to the type of affluence, and the consumption structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded. However, compared with the consumption level of other urban residents in the country, The income level of urban residents in Jiangxi Province is on the low side, the gap between the rich and the poor is large; the overall consumption demand is insufficient, the growth of consumption demand is slowing down; the Engel coefficient is still on the high side. Therefore, the rational measures to promote the consumption structure of urban residents in Jiangxi Province are put forward. On the one hand, in order to promote the development of consumption market in Jiangxi Province and even in the central region, and to optimize the consumption structure, on the other hand, it is to promote the economic growth of Jiangxi Province and narrow the gap with other regions. To promote the coordinated and sustainable development of regional economy.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1

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