延安市产业结构现状及优化模型

发布时间：2018-03-29 22:27

本文选题：产业结构　切入点：投入产出　出处：《西安科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市经济快速稳步增长的重要因素之一就是城市的产业结构是否合理。近些年，延安市经济在增长的过程中产业结构变化并不明显。作为西北地区中的中小城市，延安市发展起步晚，仍处于城市化的初级阶段，但有很多经济发展的有利条件。本文通过数学模型的建立来优化各行业的生产规模，从而使延安市经济在可持续发展的前提下快速发展。首先，，结合区域经济学中产业结构理论对延安市产业结构现状进行了分析，并用SAS软件的相关分析得到三次产业中前10个主要行业为：农业、林业、牧业、渔业、服务业、工业、建筑业、交通运输仓储邮政业、批发零售住宿餐饮业和旅游业；然后，运用投入产出知识建立基本的产业结构线性优化模型，选取为能源、水资源、土地资源、资金、劳动力、环境等6个因素为约束条件，约束量用Matlab软件进行函数拟合预测得到；其次，由于基本模型的建立在现实中并不完全成立，所以本文对模型进行了改进，得到逐年最优线性优化模型和周期型线性优化模型；最后，对改进后的模型进行数值求解及结果分析，得出周期型线性优化模型比逐年最优线性优化模型更好，更符合产业结构的可持续发展。同时本文对延安未来几年经济发展给出建议：政府应加大对工业、批发零售住宿餐饮业和旅游业的投入与发展，对于农业、林业、牧业、渔业、服务业、建筑业、交通运输仓储邮政业应基本保持原来的生产规模。
[Abstract]:One of the important factors of the rapid and steady growth of urban economy is whether the industrial structure of the city is reasonable.In recent years, Yanan economy in the growth process of industrial structure change is not obvious.As a small and medium-sized city in Northwest China, Yanan City started late and is still in the primary stage of urbanization, but there are many favorable conditions for economic development.This paper optimizes the production scale of various industries through the establishment of mathematical model, so as to make the economy of Yan'an develop rapidly under the premise of sustainable development.First of all, based on the theory of industrial structure in regional economics, this paper analyzes the present situation of Yanan's industrial structure, and finds out that the top 10 main industries of the three industries are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and service industry by using the correlation analysis of SAS software.Industry, construction, transportation, storage and post industry, wholesale and retail accommodation, catering and tourism; then, using input-output knowledge to establish a basic linear optimization model of industrial structure, selected as energy, water resources, land resources, capital,Six factors, such as labor force and environment, are the constraint conditions. The constraint is predicted by Matlab software. Secondly, because the basic model is not fully established in reality, the model is improved in this paper.The optimal linear optimization model and the periodic linear optimization model are obtained. Finally, the improved linear optimization model is solved numerically and the results are analyzed. It is concluded that the periodic linear optimization model is better than the annual optimal linear optimization model.More in line with the industrial structure of sustainable development.At the same time, this paper gives some suggestions for the economic development of Yan'an in the coming years: the government should increase the investment and development of industry, wholesale and retail accommodation, catering and tourism, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, service industry, construction, etc.Transportation, storage, postal industry should basically maintain the original scale of production.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

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