皖北地区外向型经济发展对当地经济影响的研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 15:31

本文选题：中部崛起 + 皖北地区　；参考：《安徽大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：皖北地区是安徽省的一个重要组成部分,它是安徽省重要的粮食产区、能源材料基地,人口众多,区域广阔,其经济的发展影响着安徽省经济发展的速度、和谐社会建设的深度。2008年安徽省委、省政府出台了《关于加快皖北和沿淮部分市县的若干政策建议》,2010年安徽省委、省政府正式出台《关于进一步加快皖北地区发展的若干意见》,2012年还出台了《加快皖北地区发展“十二五”规划》,这一系列动作是安徽省贯彻落实科学发展观、推进区域协调发展的重大战略举措。“十二五”是皖北地区黄金发展期,加快发展的机遇前所未有。从宏观政策看,国家深入实施促进中部地区崛起和建设中原经济区战略,安徽省把加快皖北地区发展放在区域发展总体战略的突出位置,给予特殊政策支持；从产业转移看,经济全球化深入发展,沿海发达地区向内地产业转移趋势明显,皖江示范区带动效应持续增强,南北区域合作不断深化,有利于皖北地区发挥比较优势,积极承接产业转移,全面提升开放型经济发展和开发开放水平；从发展阶段看,皖北地区正处于工业化、城镇化和农业现代化加速推进阶段,持续投入效应不断释放,对外形象逐步提升,比较优势和后发优势日益凸显。对外向型经济的研究,经济学家从不同角度探讨了外向型经济中外贸、外资等因素对一国经济增长的影响,并在此基础上选取相应指标对经济增长的影响进行了经验和实证分析,外向型经济对经济增长的促进作用得到了论证。目前,国内外学者对皖北地区经济的研究多是在定性分析上,特别对皖北地区外向型经济发展的定量研究还没有。虽然皖北地区是一个内陆区域,外向型经济发展规模总体不高,但其对经济增长的作用是毋庸置疑的。本文以皖北地区外向型经济发展为主题,采用文献研究法和规范分析法与实证分析法相结合的方法进行研究。首先对外向型经济的基本理论进行阐述；从皖北地区实施外向型经济战略的基础理论出发,结合皖北经济资源优势,介绍皖北地区的国民经济发展概况和外向型经济发展概况。其次通过从安徽省统计年鉴和各市的国民经济与社会发展统计公报查询皖北地区的外向型经济数据：出口额、进口额、实际利用外资额,分别从纵向(时间)与横向(皖北地区和安徽省之间)分析比较皖北地区外向型经济状况,发现皖北地区对外贸易额、实际利用外资额占安徽省总额的比重远远没有达到皖北地区的国内生产总值占安徽省国内生产总值的比重,可以知道皖北地区的外向型经济发展还低于安徽省的发展平均水平；还计算了皖北地区的外向型经济测度指标,分别从纵向(时间)与横向(皖北地区和安徽省之间)来分析与安徽省外向型经济测度指标之间差距。第三,选取国内生产总值作为皖北地区国民经济发展的衡量标准,对皖北地区进出口额、实际利用外资额和皖北地区的国内生产总值,运用ADF法对进行时间序列数列的平稳性检验,进而采用Johansen协整检验方法进行时间序列数列的协整检验,最后建立误差修正模型,并进行格兰杰检验,来验证皖北地区外向型经济对当地经济的作用。第四,在前面的量化分析基础上,采用与定性分析相结合的方法,分析了皖北地区外向型经济发展对当地经济的积极影响与消极影响。最后,根据前面模型得出的结论及影响分析,为更好的发展皖北地区外向型经济从而提高安徽省整体经济水平,从扩大对外贸易规模、扩大招商引资规模、开发人文景观吸引国外游客和积极开展国际合作四个方面提出自己的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The northern area is an important part of Anhui Province, which is the major grain producing areas in Anhui Province, energy and material base, large population, vast area, its economic development affects the speed of economic development in Anhui Province, the depth of.2008 in the construction of a harmonious society of Anhui Province, the provincial government issued "on some policies and Anhui in some cities and counties to speed up the proposal >, 2010 Anhui provincial Party committee, the provincial government issued" on further accelerate the rapid development of the region a number of opinions ", 2012 also issued a" speed up the development of the "12th Five-Year" plan > Northern Anhui, this series of actions is the implementation of Anhui province Scientific Outlook on Development, major strategic initiatives to promote regional coordinated development. "12th Five-Year is the golden period of development of Northern Anhui, accelerate the development of the hitherto unknown opportunities. From a macro perspective, the rise of the Central Plains and promote the implementation of the construction of the central region by the state deeply The strategic economic zone in Anhui Province, the prominent position to accelerate the development in the area of the overall strategy for regional development, give special policy support; the shift from the industrial perspective, in-depth development of economic globalization, the developed coastal region to the mainland industrial transfer trend obviously, Wanjiang demonstration area driving effect continued to strengthen, and regional cooperation is deepening, in favor of Anhui regional comparative advantages, and actively undertake industrial transfer, promote the open economy development and the development level; from the stage of development, in Northern Anhui Province is in the industrialization stage, accelerating the urbanization and modernization of agriculture, sustainable investment effects continue to release, and gradually improve the external image, comparative advantage and advantage has become increasingly prominent.
The export-oriented economic research, economists discussed foreign trade export-oriented economy from different angles, foreign investment and other factors on the impact of a country's economic growth, and on this basis, select the appropriate indicators of experience and empirical analysis of the impact on economic growth, export-oriented economy on economic growth has been demonstrated to promote the role of current. Scholars at home and abroad, on the northern of Anhui economy is more on the qualitative analysis, especially the quantitative research on the export-oriented economic development of Northern Anhui yet. Although the northern region is an inland region, the development of export-oriented economy of scale is not high, but it is no doubt that the effect on economic growth.
In this paper, the export-oriented economic development of Northern Anhui as the theme, the research method of using the method of literature research, normative analysis and empirical analysis method of combining the foreign oriented economy. Firstly, the basic theory expounded from the basic theory of Northern Anhui; implementation of export-oriented economic strategy, combined with the characters of economic resources, the development and the export-oriented economic development of national economy in north of Anhui Province. Secondly by querying the export-oriented economy data in Northern Anhui from the national economic and social development statistical bulletin and statistical yearbook of Anhui Province: exports, imports, actual utilization of foreign capital, respectively, from the vertical (time) and transverse (between the northern Anhui and Anhui province) comparative analysis of export-oriented economy in northern area, found in Northern Anhui foreign trade volume, the actual utilization of foreign capital of Anhui Province, the proportion of the total is far from The northern region's GDP accounted for the proportion of GDP in Anhui Province, we can know the development of export-oriented economy in northern areas is below the average level of Anhui province and the development of export-oriented economy; measure index of Northern Anhui are calculated, respectively from the vertical (time) and transverse (between the northern Anhui and Anhui province) to analyze the gap between the index and the export-oriented economy of Anhui province. Third, selection of GDP as the development of the national economy in Northern Anhui measure of Northern Anhui Import and export volume, the actual utilization of foreign capital and the northern region's gross domestic product, by using the method of ADF testing the stationarity of the time series sequence, and then use the cointegration test Johansen cointegration test method for time series sequence, finally establishes the error correction model and Grainger test, to verify the northern areas of export-oriented economy of the local The economy. Fourth, in front of the quantitative analysis based on the method of combining with qualitative analysis, analyzes the positive influence the development of the northern areas of export-oriented economy and the negative impact on the local economy. Finally, according to the previous model analyzed result and influence, for the better development of export-oriented economy to improve in Northern Anhui the level of overall economy in Anhui Province, from the expansion of foreign trade, expand the scale of investment, the development of cultural landscape to attract foreign tourists and put forward some policy suggestions in four aspects to actively carry out international cooperation.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】