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中国面临“中等收入陷阱”的风险和对策研究

发布时间:2018-04-21 10:08

  本文选题:中等收入陷阱 + 风险 ; 参考:《辽宁师范大学》2013年硕士论文


【摘要】:虽然“中等收入陷阱”这个命题是近几年才被提出和关注的,但是关于经济和社会发展停滞的可能、原因和相应的对策在很久以前就开始有人探索了。所谓“中等收入陷阱”,指的是一个国家从低收入国家发展成为中等收入国家之后,由于不能顺利实现经济发展方式的转变,导致经济增长动力不足,最终出现经济增长率停滞或者回落,,无法保持经济高速增长。在这个阶段,国家经济失调的同时会伴随着一系列的社会问题。许多发展中国家在摆脱“贫困陷阱”后,人均收入达到GDP4000美元附近,快速发展期间积聚的各种经济和社会的矛盾集中爆发。很多发展中国家不能克服自身的经济矛盾,发展战略转变延误或失误,造成经济增长率长期停滞甚至回落而迟迟不能升入高收入国家行列,从而陷入“中等收入陷阱”阶段。 科技的创新、产业结构的升级、经济发展方式的调整、政府职能的转变,使日韩成功突围;而缺乏体制和科技的创新、产业结构失衡再加上对外部世界的过度依赖,却让部分拉美国家和东南亚国家陷入了经济停滞的泥沼。本文通过对国内外关于“中等收入陷阱”的研究的梳理,总结出中国面临“中等收入陷阱”的潜在风险及规避风险的优势和对策。 本文由四个部分组成: 第一部分对“中等收入陷阱”问题进行了整体概述。指出“中等收入陷阱”的由来和陷入“中等收入陷阱”国家的典型表现。从理论依据入手,系统梳理这些典型国家落入“中等收入陷阱”的根本原因。为问题研究奠定理论基础。 第二部分是中国面临“中等收入陷阱”的潜在风险。中国在2010年人均GDP4400美元,跻身为中等收入国家,面临着经济、社会和政治上的潜在风险。 第三部分分析了中国规避“中等收入陷阱”的优势。我国是社会主义大国,走的是中国特色社会主义道路,社会制度同绝大多数发展中国家有根本性的区别。因而对规避“中等收入陷阱”有着自身优势,首先是社会主义政治体制和经济制度优势并存,另一个就是中国有推动经济持续发展的优势。 第四部分系统阐述了中国规避“中等收入陷阱”的对策。针对上文分析出的潜在风险,构建出中国应对“中等收入陷阱”潜在风险的对策。包括增强自主创新能力,实现转方式、调结构;提高全要素生产率,挖掘人口红利潜力;改革收入分配制度,缩小贫富差距;加快城镇化进程,打破社会阶层固化;完善就业政策,增加城乡居民就业;深化改革完善制度,为跨越“陷阱”扫清障碍六方面的对策。 通过对“中等收入陷阱”的深入研究和分析,得出结论:只要坚持正确的经济发展方式和不断完善经济政治体制,中国是可以跨越陷阱,跻身高收入国家行列的。
[Abstract]:Although the proposition of "middle income trap" has only been put forward and paid attention to in recent years, the reasons and corresponding countermeasures for the stagnation of economic and social development began to be explored a long time ago. The so-called "middle-income trap" refers to the fact that after a country has developed from a low-income country to a middle-income country, it is unable to smoothly realize the transformation of the mode of economic development, resulting in a lack of impetus for economic growth. Finally, the economic growth rate stagnates or falls back, unable to maintain the high-speed economic growth. At this stage, the national economic imbalance will be accompanied by a series of social problems. After getting rid of the "poverty trap", many developing countries have reached the GDP4000 dollar per capita income, and all kinds of economic and social contradictions accumulated during the rapid development broke out. Many developing countries are unable to overcome their own economic contradictions, delay or make mistakes in the transformation of development strategy, resulting in long-term stagnation or even decline of economic growth rate, and have been unable to rise to the ranks of high-income countries, thus falling into the stage of "middle-income trap". The innovation of science and technology, the upgrading of industrial structure, the adjustment of the mode of economic development, and the transformation of government functions have enabled Japan and South Korea to break through successfully, while the lack of institutional and technological innovation, the imbalance of industrial structure and the excessive dependence on the outside world, But let some Latin American countries and Southeast Asian countries into the bog of economic stagnation. This paper summarizes the potential risk of "middle income trap" in China and the advantages and countermeasures of avoiding it by combing the research on "middle income trap" at home and abroad. This paper consists of four parts: The first part summarizes the problem of middle-income trap as a whole. The origin of the middle income trap and the typical performance of the country caught in the middle income trap are pointed out. Starting with the theoretical basis, this paper systematically combs the fundamental causes of these typical countries falling into the "middle-income trap". To lay a theoretical foundation for the study of the problem. The second part is the potential risk of middle-income trap in China. China's per capita GDP4400 in 2010, which ranks among middle-income countries, faces potential economic, social and political risks. The third part analyzes the advantages of avoiding the middle-income trap in China. China is a great socialist country, following the socialist road with Chinese characteristics, and its social system is fundamentally different from that of most developing countries. Therefore, it has its own advantages to avoid the "middle-income trap", first of all, the advantages of socialist political system and economic system coexist, and the other is that China has the advantage of promoting sustainable economic development. The fourth part systematically expounds the countermeasures of avoiding the middle-income trap in China. In view of the potential risks analyzed above, the countermeasures for China to deal with the potential risks of the "middle income trap" are constructed. It includes strengthening the ability of independent innovation, realizing the transformation, adjusting the structure; improving the total factor productivity and tapping the potential of the population dividend; reforming the income distribution system, narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor; speeding up the process of urbanization and breaking the solidification of the social stratum; Improve the employment policy, increase the employment of urban and rural residents, deepen the reform and improve the system, clear the obstacles for overcoming the "trap" six aspects of countermeasures. Through the in-depth study and analysis of the "middle income trap", it is concluded that as long as we insist on the correct economic development mode and constantly improve the economic and political system, China can cross the trap and join the ranks of the high-income countries.
【学位授予单位】:辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:F124.7

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