陕西省现代物流产业与经济发展的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 19:25

本文选题：现代物流 + 区域经济　；参考：《西安科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：现代物流产业与区域经济发展之间存在着密不可分的互动关系：区域经济发展会加速物流需求增长，促进物流供给能力提高，进而推动整个物流产业的发展，而现代物流产业的发展也会对区域经济增长和产业结构优化产生正面影响。陕西省现代物流产业与经济发展互动关系系统是一个涵盖多个因素在内的复杂系统，只有系统中各个因素充分协调，整个系统才能不断地向更好的方向发展。本文从陕西省具体现状出发，首先以相关理论为基础，对现代物流产业与区域经济发展互动关系系统进行了分析，明确了构建陕西省现代物流产业与经济发展互动关系系统动力学模型的目的，确定了系统边界并构建了系统变量量化指标体系；其次，以系统结构分析为基础绘制了因果关系图并提出了主要变量之间的关系假设，然后运用计量经济学线性回归理论，借助Eviews6.0软件对相关参数进行了科学估计，对关系假设实施了验证，最终确定了包括47个变量、32个方程及SD流图在内的完整的系统模型。再次，对模型进行结构和行为检验，，检验结果证明模型有效。最后，借助系统模拟仿真功能分析了现代物流产业对陕西经济发展的影响以及区域经济发展对现代物流产业的影响，最终得出了陕西省现代物流产业与经济发展之间存在彼此正相关的互动关系的结论，并以两者协调发展为目标，以系统运行结果为依据提出了相应的政策建议。本文运用系统动力学方法对陕西省现代物流产业与经济发展的互动关系进行了定性与定量相结合的研究，为现代物流产业与陕西经济协调发展提供了切实可行的理论依据。
[Abstract]:There is an inseparable interaction between modern logistics industry and regional economic development: regional economic development will accelerate the growth of logistics demand, promote the improvement of logistics supply capacity, and then promote the development of the entire logistics industry. The development of modern logistics industry will also have a positive impact on regional economic growth and industrial structure optimization. The interaction system between modern logistics industry and economic development in Shaanxi Province is a complex system which covers many factors. Only when the various factors in the system are fully coordinated, the whole system can continue to develop in a better direction. Based on the current situation of Shaanxi Province, this paper firstly analyzes the interactive relationship system between modern logistics industry and regional economic development based on relevant theories. The purpose of constructing the system dynamics model of the interaction between modern logistics industry and economic development in Shaanxi Province is clarified, the system boundary is determined and the quantitative index system of system variables is constructed. Secondly, Based on the system structure analysis, the causality diagram is drawn and the hypothesis of the relationship between the main variables is put forward. Then the relevant parameters are estimated scientifically by using the econometric linear regression theory and the Eviews6.0 software. Finally, the complete system model including 47 variables, 32 equations and SD flow graph is determined. Thirdly, the structure and behavior of the model are tested, and the results show that the model is effective. Finally, the impact of modern logistics industry on Shaanxi economic development and the impact of regional economic development on modern logistics industry are analyzed with the help of system simulation function. Finally, the paper draws the conclusion that there is a positive correlation between the modern logistics industry and economic development in Shaanxi Province, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the system operation results and aiming at the coordinated development of the two. In this paper, the interactive relationship between modern logistics industry and economic development in Shaanxi Province is studied qualitatively and quantitatively with the method of system dynamics, which provides a practical theoretical basis for the coordinated development of modern logistics industry and Shaanxi economy.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F259.27

【参考文献】