技术选择与江苏产业结构升级：理论及实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 17:57

本文选题：技术选择 + 产业结构升级　；参考：《扬州大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：关于如何促进产业结构升级,多年来一直是学术界研究的重点,同时也受到各级政府的强烈关注。同时,我国产业结构也出现了许多问题,表现在：第二产业比重相对较高,且呈现继续上升势头；高耗能产业比重过大,产业结构的能源效益差。目前我国正处于中上等收入国家向高收入国家迈进的关键时期,进行产业结构调整,实现经济转型,对于成功跨越中等收入陷阱具有至关重要的作用。本文首先梳理了技术选择与产业结构的相关理论,发现了产业结构调整以及技术进步促进了产业结构升级等一些规律。然后本文分析了江苏省产业结构的现状,发现江苏省第二产业仍占国内生产总值的绝大部分,而第三产业总体上也保持较快增长势头,在第三产业内部,现代服务业占第三产业的比重,已经超过了传统服务业。而江苏省三大区域苏南、苏中与苏北的产业结构状况有着明显的差别,苏中明显劣于苏南,而苏北又略差于苏中。接着,本文基于柯布一道格拉斯函数,建立了技术选择与产业结构升级的理论模型。最后,选用江苏省1990-2011年的时间序列数据与各地级市面板数据模型对该模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明,在长期内,一方面,第三产业的资本深化有利于推动产业结构升级。并且,在各地级市中,苏北地区正处于资本深化快速提高的阶段,在这一阶段,其第三产业的资本深化对产业结构升级的作用尤为突出；而苏南地区的资本深化程度也在缓步提高,其第三产业的资本深化对产业结构升级也有一定的作用。另一方面,提高江苏省第二产业的人均产出水平,能够“带动”第三产业人均产出水平更大程度的提高,但从各个地级市来说,这种“带动”效果不太明显。因此,在推动产业结构升级的关键在于,加大第三产业的资本投入。最后,本文针对实证研究的结论,从产业与企业角度分别提出了一些政策建议。
[Abstract]:How to promote the upgrading of industrial structure has been the focus of academic research for many years, but also received strong attention from governments at all levels. At the same time, there are many problems in the industrial structure of our country, which are: the proportion of the secondary industry is relatively high, and it continues to rise, and the proportion of the high-energy-consuming industry is too large, the energy efficiency of the industrial structure is poor. At present, our country is in the key period that the middle and upper income countries are striding to the high income countries. It is very important for us to successfully cross the middle income trap by adjusting the industrial structure and realizing the economic transformation. This paper first combs the relevant theories of technology selection and industrial structure, and finds some laws that industrial structure adjustment and technological progress promote industrial structure upgrading. Then this paper analyzes the present situation of Jiangsu's industrial structure, and finds that the secondary industry still accounts for the vast majority of the gross domestic product in Jiangsu Province, and the tertiary industry, as a whole, also maintains a relatively rapid growth momentum, within the tertiary industry. The proportion of modern service industry in the tertiary industry has exceeded the traditional service industry. The industrial structure of the three regions of Jiangsu Province is obviously different from that of the south of Jiangsu province, and the industrial structure of the central Jiangsu is inferior to the south of Jiangsu, and the north of Jiangsu is a little worse than that of the middle of Jiangsu. Then, based on Cobb-Douglas function, a theoretical model of technology selection and industrial structure upgrading is established. Finally, the time series data of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2011 and the panel data model of each prefecture-level city are used to test the model. The results show that, in the long run, on the one hand, the capital deepening of the tertiary industry is conducive to promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Moreover, in each prefecture-level city, northern Jiangsu is in the stage of rapid capital deepening, in which the role of capital deepening of the tertiary industry in upgrading the industrial structure is particularly prominent. The degree of capital deepening in southern Jiangsu is also increasing slowly, and the capital deepening of tertiary industry plays a certain role in upgrading the industrial structure. On the other hand, raising the per capita output level of the secondary industry in Jiangsu Province can promote the per capita output level of the tertiary industry to a greater extent, but from each prefectural level city, the effect of this kind of "driving" is not obvious. Therefore, the key to promote the upgrading of industrial structure is to increase the capital input of tertiary industry. Finally, based on the conclusions of empirical research, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations from the angle of industry and enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F279.2

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