温室气体减排背景下山东经济社会发展研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 23:29

本文选题：温室气体减排 + 经济社会发展　；参考：《中国石油大学（华东）》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于温室气体的大量积累，全球生态严重失衡，生态环境遭到破坏，“温室气体减排”也应运成为无国界的全球关注点。为减少温室气体排放，在联合国气候变化大会的号召下，世界各国纷纷做出减排承诺并付诸努力。在国际趋势的大背景下，为顺应我国“到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%到45%”的减排目标，作为经济大省和碳排放大省的山东省必须将节能减排与低碳作为未来经济社会取得发展的必由之路。但随着工业化、城市化进程加快和消费结构持续升级，山东能源消费需求呈刚性增长，资源环境约束日趋强化，“十二五”节能减排形势更加严峻，任务更加艰巨。鉴于此，山东如何以温室气体减排为背景，在经济社会发展进程中有力减排，，同时保证经济增速和人民生活水平的提升是本文需要解决的问题。基于前人的研究成果，结合山东省自身实际，综合运用定性和定量分析相结合的方法，本文在分析山东温室气体排放现状的基础上，找到造成山东省严峻减排形势的经济和社会原因，通过建立协整模型和状态空间模型，研究了CO2排放及其经济社会影响因素人均GDP、能源强度、产业结构、城市化水平和对外贸易之间的协整关系和各因素对CO2排放影响的变动性特征。结果表明，CO2排放与各经济社会因素之间存在长期的均衡关系，能源强度和人均GDP为两大主导因素，这为减排背景下山东经济社会如何发展提供了着力点；且碳排放弹性系数的波动性特征说明经济社会发展过程中制度与政策机制的调整等也会在很大程度上影响减排效果。此外借助情景分析，对山东省不同经济社会发展路径下的2015年二氧化碳排放量进行了预测，为选择适合山东省情的低碳经济社会发展方式提供参考。最后根据以上实证结果，结合山东省现实情况和经济社会发展规律，为山东经济社会发展提出建设性建议。
[Abstract]:Due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases, the global ecological imbalance and the destruction of the ecological environment, the "greenhouse gas emission reduction" should also become a global concern without national boundaries. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, at the call of the United Nations Climate change Conference, countries around the world have made pledges and efforts to reduce emissions. Against the background of international trends, in order to comply with China's target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP by 2020 by 40% to 45% compared with 2005, As a big economic province and a big carbon emission province, Shandong Province must take energy saving and low carbon emission reduction as the only way to achieve economic and social development in the future. However, with the industrialization, the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous upgrading of consumption structure, the energy consumption demand of Shandong is increasing rigidly, the resource and environment constraints are being strengthened day by day, and the situation of energy saving and emission reduction in the 12th Five-Year Plan is more severe and the task is more arduous. In view of this, how to reduce emissions in Shandong with greenhouse gas emission reduction as the background, in the process of economic and social development, and at the same time to ensure the economic growth rate and the improvement of people's living standards is the problem to be solved in this paper. Based on the previous research results and the reality of Shandong Province, this paper analyzes the current situation of greenhouse gas emissions in Shandong Province by using the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. To find out the economic and social reasons that cause the severe emission reduction situation in Shandong Province, through the establishment of cointegration model and state space model, this paper studies the CO2 emissions and their economic and social factors per capita, energy intensity, industrial structure. The cointegration relationship between urbanization level and foreign trade and the variable characteristics of the influence of various factors on CO2 emissions. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between CO _ 2 emission and various economic and social factors. Energy intensity and GDP per capita are the two main factors, which provides a key point for the development of Shandong economy and society under the background of emission reduction. The volatility of carbon emission elasticity coefficient indicates that the adjustment of system and policy mechanism in the process of economic and social development will also affect the emission reduction effect to a great extent. In addition, with the help of scenario analysis, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2015 under different economic and social development paths in Shandong Province are predicted, which provides a reference for the selection of low-carbon economic and social development modes suitable for Shandong Province. Finally, according to the above empirical results, combined with the reality of Shandong Province and the law of economic and social development, the author puts forward constructive suggestions for Shandong's economic and social development.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X22;F127

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