西部地区石油支撑效能预测与统计建模

发布时间：2018-05-07 09:01

本文选题：西部地区 + 经济可持续发展　；参考：《成都理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：西部经济的可持续发展离不开石油能源系统的强力支撑。本文主要研究结果如下：（1）基于经典C-D模型的PE关联模型研究发现西部石油消费对经济增长具有支撑促进作用，并且石油消费对于经济增长作用表现出正向促进作用。（2）基于主成分分析法和灰色关联度分析的西部石油消费与环境关系研究发现西部地区石油消费对生态环境有负向促进作用。(3）西部地区石油-经济-环境三大系统的协调度研究发现，西部地区各个系统之间的协调发展状态还有提升的空间。（4）多目标规划仿真模型研究发现，基本行为模式和单纯追求经济高速增长的快速发展模式是不可持续发展模式；与基本行为模式相比，可持续发展模式考虑西部地区经济持续稳定增长,又兼顾石油能源资源的合理开发与利用，以及生态环境保护，能够降低西部地区石油资源供需缺口，能够提高其对经济可持续发展的支撑效能。本项目将研究对象锁定西部地区石油、经济、环境之间关系；采用双向分析方法分析石油-经济，石油-环境之间的关系，揭示复杂系统之间的关系；基于复杂系统建模的思想，，研究三者的可持续发展测度，建立包含经济、石油和环境系统的仿真系统，对西部石油支撑效能进行综合评价。石油能源作为经济增长重要因素，其在经济发展中的应当发挥重要作用，同时要注重生态环境的承受能力.
[Abstract]:The sustainable development of western economy can not be separated from the strong support of petroleum energy system. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) the PE correlation model based on the classical C-D model shows that oil consumption in the west of China can support and promote economic growth. And oil consumption has a positive promoting effect on economic growth. (2) based on principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis, the relationship between oil consumption and environment in western China is studied. It is found that oil consumption in western China has a positive effect on ecological environment. The study on the coordination degree of the petroleum, economic and environmental systems in the western part of China shows that, The coordinated development of various systems in the western region also has a space of improvement. The simulation model of multi-objective programming shows that the basic behavior model and the rapid development mode of pursuing the rapid economic growth are the unsustainable development models. Compared with the basic behavior model, the sustainable development model can reduce the gap between the supply and demand of petroleum resources in the western region by considering the sustained and stable economic growth in the western region, taking into account the rational development and utilization of petroleum energy resources and the protection of the ecological environment. It can improve its support efficiency for sustainable economic development. This project will focus on the relationship among petroleum, economy and environment in the western region, analyze the relationship between petroleum economy and petroleum environment by using two-way analysis method, and reveal the relationship between complex systems. Based on the idea of complex system modeling, this paper studies the measurement of sustainable development of the three systems, establishes a simulation system including economic, petroleum and environmental systems, and comprehensively evaluates the petroleum support effectiveness in western China. As an important factor of economic growth, petroleum energy should play an important role in economic development and pay attention to the bearing capacity of ecological environment at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F426.22;F224

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