政府规模的扩张偏向与福利效应——理论新假说与实证再检验

发布时间：2018-05-08 01:04

本文选题：政府规模 + 扩张偏向　；参考：《中国工业经济》2014年05期

【摘要】：本文提出适度政府规模福利效应新假说,利用2000—2012年中国省际动态面板数据和系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)进行实证检验。结果发现:①适度政府规模有利于经济增长和社会福利增进,政府规模存在三种效应,当政府规模较小时,增长效应占主导,当政府规模较大时,挤出效应占主导,当政府规模适度时,福利效应占主导;②政府规模对社会福利呈"倒U型"影响,短期扩张有利于经济发展和社会福利提高,但长期膨胀则有损于经济效率和社会公平,中国适度政府规模在0.2左右;③政府规模对社会福利的影响作用大于政府干预作用,由于中国各省份发展条件和发展水平存在显著差异,要防止地方政府规模过分偏离0.2的适度水平而造成地方政府债务规模膨胀、过多挤占市场和宏观经济不稳定。本文为近年来中国各级政府规模的扩张偏向提出了警示与启示。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a new hypothesis of moderate government scale welfare effect is proposed, and an empirical test is carried out by using the dynamic panel data and the system generalized moment estimation (SYS-GMMM) from 2000 to 2012 in China. The results show that the moderate government scale is beneficial to economic growth and social welfare enhancement. There are three effects in government scale. When the government scale is small, the growth effect is dominant, and when the government scale is large, the crowding-out effect is dominant. When the scale of government is moderate, the welfare effect is dominant and the scale of government has a "inverted U" effect on social welfare. Short-term expansion is beneficial to economic development and social welfare improvement, but long-term expansion is harmful to economic efficiency and social equity. The moderate government size of China is about 0.2 and the influence on social welfare is greater than that of government intervention, because there are significant differences in the development conditions and the development level of different provinces in China. It is necessary to prevent the local government from deviating from the moderate level of 0.2 to cause the local government debt to inflate, and to squeeze out the market and the macroeconomic instability. This article provides warning and enlightenment for the expansion bias of Chinese government at all levels in recent years.
【作者单位】：浙江大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“制度性贫困与包容性增长减贫模式研究”(批准号11CJL033)
【分类号】：F124;F224

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