基于复杂网络与DEA方法的潍坊市经济发展效率研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 01:19

本文选题：复杂网络 + DEA方法　；参考：《天津大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：潍坊作为山东半岛都市群的核心城市，在山东省的经济增长中扮演了重要的角色。潍坊市正处在转变经济发展方式，调整优化经济结构，全面建设小康社会的关键时期。2011年山东半岛蓝色经济区建设正式上升为国家战略为潍坊市提供了重要的发展机遇。本文综合使用DEA、SFA和和复杂网络分析方法，从宏观经济、科技园区以及工业企业三个层面对潍坊市经济发展效率进行了实证分析与评价，为地方政府及相关决策部门评估区域经济发展现状、调整相关政策、协调各方关系提供了重要的参考资料和政策分析工具。本文主要分为以下几个部分：第一章为绪论。本章主要提出本论文选题的背景、理论意义和实践意义，接下来对国内外相关本领域内的相关研究文献进行综述和评价，提出本论文研究的思路、主要内容和使用的研究方法，本章最后概括出本文的主要创新点。第二章为理论概述。本部分主要对本文的理论基础进行介绍，主要包括灰色系统理论、全要素效率评价理论、新经济地理理论、区域经济“中心-外围”理论。第三章为基于DEA的潍坊市宏观经济运行效率评价与预测。本部分首先对潍坊市经济发展的基本面进行分析，从GDP及其增速、总体投资水平、全社会总体消费状况、进出口总额以及产业结构五个方面考察了潍坊市的经济发展现状，接下来对潍坊市的经济发展水平进行纵向和横向比较，并对潍坊市经济发展的宏观效率、全要素生产率进行了评价，最后通过灰色马尔科夫预测方法对潍坊市的经济发展指标进行了预测。通过分析得出，潍坊市的GDP、投资总额和消费支出总额都呈现快速增长趋势，进出口总额低于省内其他沿海城市，产业结构存在不合理问题，自主创新能力不强，经济发展方式亟需转变。通过DEA评价的潍坊市全要素生产率良好，但整体发展不均衡，主要原因为行业发展不均衡、资本运转不合理以及外部市场环境的影响。潍坊市的产业集群具有明显的集聚效应，明显提高了地区生产率水平，促进了区域产业创新，促进了技术进步指数和技术效率的提高。第四章为基于复杂网络的潍坊科技园区发展研究。本章首先对国内外科技园区的发展现状进行了总结，并着重分析了科技园区的产业路径和经营风险，接下来对潍坊市科技园区的规模经济及其影响因素进行了实证研究，最后分别通过区间层次分析法以及超效率DEA模型对潍坊市科技园区的竞争力进行了评价。通过分析得出以下结论：产业园区的发展模式主要包括自有企业发展模式、外部企业发展模式和产业链模式。从恶意攻击和随机攻击的鲁棒性分析和比较中可以发现，具有多个核心的产业园区抵御风险的能力明显优于前两种园区类型，在招商模式上，产业链招商的优势非常明显。潍坊并不具备全面发展服务外包的条件，潍坊在产业发展中的优势在于人口基数和稳健的GDP增长水平。潍坊与示范城市的差距主要来自以航空交通线路为代表的交通条件和以高等院校数量为代表的高等人力资源水平。通过超效率DEA模型对潍坊科技园区竞争力进行评价看出，潍坊的得分较低，具备发展新兴科技产业的必要条件，在全国基本处于中上游的水平，与全国领先城市的差距较大。第五章为潍坊市企业生产效率评价。主要是应用随机前沿模型对潍坊市工业企业的技术效率进行全面的评价分析。根据分析结果，从不同行业、企业规模、产权结构以及市场势力四个方面对潍坊市工业企业的技术效率进行了统计分析。根据分析结果以及分类统计可以看出，在不同行业分类中，医药制造业和装备制造业的技术效率较高；在不同产权结构的企业中，国有企业的技术效率较高而民营企业技术效率最低；不同规模的企业中，企业的技术效率与企业规模之间表现出显著的正相关性；根据不同的市场竞争程度来看，，市场势力过大或者市场竞争对手过多都会导致技术效率的下降。对于潍坊市工业企业来讲，需要着重关注技术效率较低的企业群体，加大对这部分企业的政策支持力度。第六章为研究结论、政策建议与展望。本部分主要总结了本论文前几章研究的主要观点和结论，在这些结论的基础之上，从宏观、产业和企业三个层面提出了提升潍坊市经济发展效率的相关政策建议，本章最后总结了本研究存在的局限性以及对未来研究展望。
[Abstract]:Weifang, as the core city of the Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration, plays an important role in the economic growth of Shandong province. Weifang is in the key period of transforming the economic development mode, adjusting the economic structure and building a well-off society in an all-round way in the period of.2011, the construction of the Blue Economic Zone in Shandong peninsula is up to the national strategy for Weifang city. In this paper, we use DEA, SFA and complex network analysis methods to analyze and evaluate the economic development efficiency of Weifang from the three layers of macro economy, science and Technology Park and industrial enterprise, and evaluate the regional economic development status of local government and relevant decision-making departments, adjust relevant policies and coordinate all parties. Relationships provide important reference materials and policy analysis tools. This article is divided into the following sections:
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter mainly puts forward the background, theoretical and practical significance of this thesis, and then reviews and evaluates the relevant literature in this field at home and abroad, and puts forward the ideas, main contents and methods of research in this thesis. At the end of this chapter, the main innovation of this paper is summarized.
The second chapter is an overview of the theory. This part mainly introduces the theoretical basis of this article, mainly including the grey system theory, the total factor efficiency evaluation theory, the new economic geography theory and the "center periphery" theory of regional economy.
The third chapter is the evaluation and prediction of the macro economic efficiency of Weifang based on the analysis of the basic aspects of the economic development of Weifang. From the GDP and its growth, the overall investment level, the overall social consumption, the total import and export and the industrial structure of the five aspects of Weifang, the economic development status of the city is examined, and the following is the following. The economic development level of Weifang is compared vertically and horizontally, and the macro efficiency and total factor productivity of Weifang's economic development are evaluated. Finally, the economic development index of Weifang is predicted by the grey Markov forecast method. Through the analysis, the GDP, total investment and total consumption expenditure of Weifang city are obtained. The total import and export volume is lower than the other coastal cities in the province, the industrial structure is not reasonable, the ability of independent innovation is not strong, the economic development mode needs to be changed. The total factor productivity of Weifang city is good, but the overall development is not balanced through DEA. The main reason is the unbalanced development of the industry and the unreasonable operation of the capital. As well as the influence of the external market environment, the industrial cluster in Weifang has obvious agglomeration effect, which has obviously improved the productivity level of the region, promoted the innovation of regional industry, and promoted the improvement of technological progress index and technical efficiency.
The fourth chapter is the development research of Weifang science and Technology Park Based on complex network. This chapter first summarizes the development status of science and Technology Parks at home and abroad, and focuses on the analysis of the industrial path and management risk of the science and technology park. Then, the scale economy and the influencing factors of Weifang science and technology park are empirically studied. Interval analytic hierarchy process and super efficiency DEA model are used to evaluate the competitiveness of Weifang science and technology park. Through analysis, the following conclusions are drawn: the development mode of Industrial Park mainly includes the development model of private enterprise, the development mode of external enterprise and the model of industry chain. It can be found that the ability to resist risks in industrial parks with multiple cores is obviously superior to the first two types of park. In the investment model, the advantages of industrial chain investment are very obvious. Weifang does not have the conditions for the overall development of service outsourcing, and the advantages of Weifang in the industrial development are in the population base and the steady GDP growth level. Weifang and The gap between the demonstration cities mainly comes from the traffic conditions represented by air traffic lines and the level of higher human resources represented by the number of institutions of higher learning. The evaluation of the competitiveness of Weifang science and technology park through the super efficiency DEA model shows that Weifang has a low score and has the necessary conditions for developing new technology industry. In the upper and middle reaches, the gap between China and the leading cities in the country is relatively large.
The fifth chapter is the evaluation of the production efficiency of the enterprises in Weifang. It mainly applies the stochastic frontier model to the comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the technical efficiency of the industrial enterprises in Weifang. According to the analysis results, the technical efficiency of the industrial enterprises in Weifang is statistically analyzed from four aspects of different industries, enterprise scale, property right structure and market power. According to the analysis results and the classification statistics, it can be seen that the technical efficiency of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and the equipment manufacturing industry is higher in different industries. In the enterprises with different property rights structure, the technical efficiency of the state-owned enterprises is higher while the private enterprises have the lowest technical efficiency; in different scale enterprises, the technological efficiency of the enterprises and the scale of the enterprises There is a significant positive correlation between them. According to the different market competition, too much market power or too many market competitors will lead to a decline in technical efficiency. For industrial enterprises in Weifang, it is necessary to pay more attention to the lower technical efficiency of the enterprise group and strengthen the policy support for this part of the enterprises.
The sixth chapter is the research conclusion, policy suggestion and prospect. This part mainly summarizes the main views and conclusions of the previous chapters of this paper. On the basis of these conclusions, it puts forward relevant policy suggestions to improve the economic development efficiency of Weifang from three aspects of macro, industrial and enterprise. Finally, this chapter summarizes the limitations of this research. Sex and prospects for future research.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

【参考文献】