物价水平与城镇居民消费支出动态关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 19:32

本文选题：物价水平 + 城镇居民消费支出　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来的30余年间,我国经济以超过9%的平均增速呈现出高速增长的优异态势。但近几年来,从经济增长结构来看,支撑我国经济高速运行的投资和出口两驾马车对经济的拉动作用已经日益式微,下一轮中国经济的中高速增长主动力源必须转向拉动经济增长的第三驾马车——消费。而实际情况是,消费在拉动和支撑我国经济增长时却不断呈现出疲软状态。学术界对影响居民消费的相关因素进行了广泛的研究和讨论,充分意识到物价水平的波动是一个不容忽视的变量指标。物价水平是经济运行状况的晴雨表,要了解整个经济的运行状况及其发展趋势就必须要准确分析和预测物价的波动趋势。近年来我国物价上涨已成为一个不争的事实,“豆你玩”、“蒜你狠”、“姜你军”、“糖高宗”等网络新词的不断涌现表明物价的持续快速上涨对居民的日常消费生活造成了重大影响。物价水平的波动通过改变居民的购买力、消费心理和跨期消费行为等途径对居民的消费支出产生影响,本文基于中国城镇居民消费支出和城镇居民消费价格指数数据,通过构建物价水平——消费支出的计量模型,采用相关性分析法和最小二乘法对物价水平和城镇居民消费支出之间的动态关系从总量分析和结构分析两个方面分别进行了计量验证,实证结果表明：1.物价水平与城镇居民消费总支出呈高度的相关关系,各类消费支出项目对其价格水平波动的反应程度不一,其中,交通通讯支出和教育文娱服务支出与其各自的价格水平呈现出较高的相关关系；2.短期物价水平的上升,会促进城镇居民增加其消费支出；但持续的物价上涨会对城镇居民消费支出产生抑制作用,且这种抑制作用会随着时间的增加而增强；3.不同收入群体之间受物价上涨而引起的消费支出增加呈现U型变化,而且持续的物价上涨对低收入群体的消费支出产生更为明显的抑制作用；4.各类消费支出项目受到物价水平波动的时滞性效应都不太显著,但仍表现为正向关系,即一定程度的消费惯性。在本文的最后,根据前文的机理分析和实证研究的结论,就稳定物价水平、扩大内需、保护低收入群体、引导居民理性消费等方面提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years since the reform and opening up, the average growth rate of China's economy has been increasing at a high speed with an average growth rate of more than 9%. But in recent years, from the point of view of the structure of economic growth, the role of the two caravan of investment and export, which supports the high-speed operation of our economy, has been declining day by day. The main source of power for the next round of high-speed growth in China must shift to consumption, the third caravan that drives growth. The actual situation is that consumption in pulling and supporting China's economic growth is constantly showing a weak state. The academic circles have carried on the extensive research and the discussion to the related factor which affects the resident consumption, fully realized that the fluctuation of the price level is a variable index which can not be ignored. Price level is a barometer of economic operation. In order to understand the operation of the whole economy and its development trend, it is necessary to accurately analyze and predict the price fluctuation trend. In recent years, rising prices in China have become an indisputable fact: "you play with beans", "you are ruthless with garlic", "Jiang you Jun", The continuous emergence of new online words such as Sugar Gaozong shows that the sustained and rapid rise in prices has had a significant impact on the daily consumption of residents. The fluctuation of price level has an effect on the consumption expenditure by changing the purchasing power of the residents, the consumption psychology and the intertemporal consumption behavior. This paper is based on the data of the consumption expenditure of the Chinese urban residents and the consumer price index of the urban residents. Through the construction of price level-consumption expenditure measurement model, The correlation analysis and the least square method are used to verify the dynamic relationship between the price level and the consumption expenditure of urban residents in terms of the total amount analysis and the structure analysis. The empirical results show that: 1. There is a high correlation between the price level and the total consumption expenditure of urban residents. There is a high correlation between the expenditure on transportation and communication and the expenditure on educational and recreational services and their respective price levels. Short-term price level increases will promote urban residents to increase their consumer spending, but sustained price increases will have a restraining effect on urban consumer spending, and this inhibition will increase with the increase of time. The increase of consumer expenditure caused by price increase among different income groups is U-shaped, and the sustained price increase has a more obvious inhibitory effect on consumer expenditure of low-income groups. The delay-effect of all kinds of consumer expenditure items affected by the fluctuation of price level is not obvious, but it still shows a positive relationship, that is, consumption inertia to a certain extent. At the end of this paper, according to the mechanism analysis and the conclusion of the empirical research, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on stabilizing the price level, expanding domestic demand, protecting the low income groups, and guiding the residents to consume rationally.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F726;F126.1

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