对外贸易、外商直接投资对浙江省经济增长影响的路径研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 20:30

本文选题：对外贸易 + 外商直接投资　；参考：《山东财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：对外贸易、外商直接投资是否对经济的增长存在影响以及影响如何，这方面的研究对于学者们一直是热点问题，国内外学者利用理论和实证方法在这方面展开了研究，但都没有得到统一的结论。对于对外贸易、外商直接投资对经济增长的影响，具体问题应该具体分析。具体到浙江省，浙江抓住改革开放这一机遇，加快对外开放脚步，在对外经济上取得了很大成就。改革开放以来，浙江省GDP以及本省GDP与全国GDP的比值都呈逐年上升趋势；而且浙江省对外贸易额和吸收外资额近三十年来一直稳步提升。通过浙江省对外贸易与外商直接投资的现状分析，考察对外贸易、外商直接投资对浙江省经济增长的影响路径有重要意义。对外贸易、外商直接投资主要通过资本积累、技术进步等途径促进经济的增长。本文通过线性回归、VAR模型、面板数据分析等计量方法实证分析对外贸易、外商直接投资是否通过上述途径促进了经济增长，并对得出的结果进行比较分析。基于外部比较视角，浙江省对外贸易和外商直接投资均能通过资本积累促进经济的增长，但从影响系数看，在外商直接投资与经济增长不加入国内投资、劳动等控制变量时，浙江省外商直接投资对经济增长的促进作用大于对外贸易的作用；加入控制变量后，外商直接投资的促进作用小于对外贸易；浙江省对外贸易没有通过技术进步途径对经济增长产生积极影响，而外商直接投资存在着显著的技术溢出效应。基于内部比较视角，从资本积累和技术进步途径分析的对外贸易量对经济增长的影响可知，对外贸易量通过资本积累途径对经济增长的影响比通过技术进步途径对经济增长的影响大；贸易结构对经济增长的影响，，2002年以前资本积累途径产生的作用大于技术进步途径，2002年以后后者的影响大于前者；外商直接投资通过资本积累途径对经济增长的影响比技术溢出对经济增长的影响大。另外，人力资本、市场体制、研发以及基础设施等因素都能促进浙江省技术溢出吸收能力的提高。因此，浙江省在未来的发展中首先应采取措施，优化贸易结构，促进贸易对经济增长的积极影响；其次，浙江应该增加外商直接投资的引进，改善外商直接投资结构；最后，浙江省应该注重外资企业的技术溢出效应，重视人才的引进和培养。
[Abstract]:Foreign trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) has an impact on economic growth, and the research on this aspect has been a hot issue for scholars. Scholars at home and abroad have made use of theoretical and empirical methods to carry out research in this area. But there is no uniform conclusion. For foreign trade, the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth, specific issues should be specifically analyzed. In Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang has made great achievements in foreign economy by seizing the opportunity of reform and opening to the outside world. Since the reform and opening up, the GDP of Zhejiang Province and the ratio of GDP to national GDP have been rising year by year, and the amount of foreign trade and the amount of absorbing foreign capital in Zhejiang Province have been steadily increasing in the past 30 years. Through the analysis of the current situation of foreign trade and foreign direct investment in Zhejiang Province, it is of great significance to investigate the influence of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province. Foreign trade, foreign direct investment mainly through the accumulation of capital, technological progress and other ways to promote economic growth. This paper empirically analyzes foreign trade by means of linear regression VAR model panel data analysis and so on. Whether foreign direct investment promotes economic growth through the above approaches and makes a comparative analysis of the results obtained. From the perspective of external comparison, both foreign trade and foreign direct investment in Zhejiang Province can promote economic growth through capital accumulation, but from the perspective of influence coefficient, when foreign direct investment and economic growth do not join domestic investment, labor and other control variables. The promoting effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Zhejiang Province is greater than that of foreign trade, and the promotion effect of foreign direct investment is less than that of foreign trade after adding control variables. Foreign trade in Zhejiang Province has not had a positive impact on economic growth through the way of technological progress, while foreign direct investment has a significant technology spillover effect. Based on the perspective of internal comparison, from the perspective of capital accumulation and technological progress, the impact of the amount of foreign trade on economic growth can be seen. The influence of the amount of foreign trade on economic growth through the way of capital accumulation is greater than that on economic growth through the way of technological progress. The influence of trade structure on economic growth is greater than that of technological progress before 2002, and the influence of the latter is greater than that of the former after 2002. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has more influence on economic growth through capital accumulation than technology spillover. In addition, human capital, market system, R & D and infrastructure can promote the absorption capacity of technology spillover in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, in the future development of Zhejiang Province, first of all, measures should be taken to optimize the trade structure and promote the positive impact of trade on economic growth. Secondly, Zhejiang should increase the introduction of foreign direct investment and improve the structure of foreign direct investment. Zhejiang Province should pay attention to the technology spillover effect of foreign enterprises and pay attention to the introduction and cultivation of talents.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224;F832.6;F752.8

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