我国贫困阶层的收入流动性研究：动态变化与影响因素

发布时间：2018-05-18 08:13

  本文选题：收入流动性 + 代际收入流动性　； 参考：《浙江大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：在我国社会不平等现象加剧,相对贫困问题、跨代贫困问题也日益凸显的背景下,研究如何促使社会具有较大的收入流动性,如何寄予穷人改善自己相对收入的机会,并实现收入地位的向上流动已变得十分紧迫和重要。关于中国某一年度收入不平等的研究已有很多,但是从长期乃至终身视角下考察微观家庭代内收入流动性、代际收入流动性的联动变化以及代内、代际收入流动性影响因素的研究却仍很缺乏。本文以收入而非其他经济成就的指标来界定贫困群体,测度了我国贫困阶层收入状态的长期动态变化,联动考察了贫困阶层代内、代际收入流动性的变动趋势以及跨代贫困的传递性,较全面地呈现了我国动态的长期收入分配情况;分析了影响贫困群体实现收入向上流动的因素,以及父代劳动力市场上的异地流动行为对子代发展的代际影响。希望本文的研究能够为促进我国贫困人群实现收入的向上流动以及反贫困政策的制定,提供一些可行的依据及建议。本文的研究内容主要包括以下几个方面:首先,在文献回顾的基础上,推导了影响收入流动性的人力资本理论模型,在人力资本理论框架下,分析教育、劳动力流动等生命周期过程中的人力资本投资、积累行为是如何影响代内及代际间收入流动性的。在理论分析基础上,提出了本文研究问题的几个基本假设。其次,本文基于跨度20余年的1989-2011年“中国健康与营养调查数据”(China Health and Nutrition Survey,CHNS)追踪微观家庭收入的动态变化,在不同的贫困标准和视角下,测度了转型升级背景中,我国城乡、各区域收入流动性的变化和趋势,尤其是贫困群体的贫困状态的动态变化、贫困阶层的代内、代际间的收入流动性和贫困的代际传递性。研究发现,1989-2011年间,我国城乡绝对贫困发生率大幅下降,绝对贫困发生深度下降。但是相对贫困发生率呈现出“倒U型”的变化模式,且近几年相对贫困发生深度在增加,社会被剥夺感在增大。虽然我国城乡家庭的贫困以暂时性贫困为主,即在贫困类型中,以某一单年发生贫困为主,但是我国城乡地区长期贫困占总贫困的比例仍然较高,缓解长期贫困的任务仍然较重。以2000年为界,我国地区的收入流动性呈现先上升后下降的趋势,进入21世纪后我国社会的收入流动性在降低,收入分层越来越明显,并且无论是城乡间比较,还是区域间比较,我国经济更发达的城镇地区,以及最发达的东部地区的收入流动性都相对是最低的。研究还发现无论是在农村地区还是城镇地区,贫困阶层前后两期一直停留在收入最低分位上的比率呈现出先下降后提高的趋势,即呈现出“V”型的变动趋势,表明近10年来贫困群体实现收入向上流动的概率在降低,并且经济发展越成熟地区的贫困家庭越难实现收入的向上流动。贫困的代际转移测度表明收入贫困存在代际间的显著传递影响。再次,基于理论分析和代内、代际间收入流动性的测度结果,本文使用两阶段工具变量法研究了影响微观贫困家庭收入向上流动的因素和作用路径;使用回溯性的方法,首次分析了父代劳动力外出务工行为对子代发展的长期代际影响。结论显示贫困家庭能否实现收入向上流动受多方面因素的影响,包括家庭的人口特征和家庭的人力资本积累、家庭的经济基础、家庭经济行为和贫困家庭所在地区环境等。家庭的人力资本积累、家庭成员劳动力的外出流动会对贫困家庭实现向上的收入流动产生显著的正向影响。但是父母外出的务工行为会对子代教育的长期发展产生显著的负面影响,对子代在正规部门单位就业也有负向影响。最后,基于研究结论,本文提出了一些改善贫困状态,促进贫困阶层收入向上流动的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the background of increasing social inequality, relative poverty and cross generation poverty, it is very urgent and important to study how to promote the society to have greater income mobility, how to send the poor to improve their relative income, and to realize the upward mobility of their income status. There are a lot of studies on income inequality, but it is still very lack of research on the mobility of micro family income, intergenerational income mobility and the factors of intergenerational income mobility from a long-term or even lifelong perspective. The long-term dynamic changes in the income state of the poor class in China, the linkage survey of the generation of the poor stratum, the changing trend of the intergenerational income mobility and the transmissibility of the intergenerational poverty, presented the dynamic long-term income distribution in China, and analyzed the factors affecting the upward flow of the income of the poor group and the parent labor force. It is hoped that this study can provide some feasible basis and suggestions for promoting the upward flow of income and the formulation of anti poverty policy for the poor people in China. The main contents of this paper include the following aspects: first, on the basis of literature review, This paper derives the theoretical model of human capital which affects the mobility of income. Under the framework of human capital theory, it analyzes how the human capital investment in the life cycle of education and labor flow, and how the accumulation behavior affects the intergenerational and intergenerational income liquidity. On the basis of theoretical analysis, some basic false points are put forward. Secondly, this paper, based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), traced the dynamic changes in the micro family income, based on the 1989-2011 years of 20 years' span, and measured the changes and trends of income mobility in the urban and rural areas of China in the background of the transformation and upgrading, in different poverty standards and perspectives. It is a dynamic change in the poor state of the poor, the generation of the poor, the intergenerational income mobility and the intergenerational transmissibility of poverty. In the 1989-2011 years, the incidence of absolute poverty in urban and rural areas in China has fallen sharply, and the absolute poverty has fallen deeply. But the incidence of relative poverty shows a "inverted U" pattern, In recent years, the depth of relative poverty is increasing, and the sense of social deprivation is increasing. Although the poverty in urban and rural families in China is dominated by temporary poverty, that is, in the type of poverty, poverty is mainly in a single year, but the proportion of long-term poverty in China's urban and rural areas is still higher, and the task of alleviating long-term poverty is still heavy. With the 2000 as the boundary, the income mobility of China's region shows a tendency to rise first and then decline. After twenty-first Century, the income mobility of our society is decreasing and the income stratification is more and more obvious, and the income flow in the more developed cities and towns and the most developed eastern regions is the comparison between the urban and rural areas and the regional comparison. Both in rural areas and in urban areas, the study also found that the ratio of the poverty level to the lowest income sub level in both rural and urban areas shows a tendency to decrease first and then increase, that is, the trend of "V" shows that the probability of achieving the upward mobility of the poor in the past 10 years has been reduced. The poorer families in the more mature areas are more difficult to realize the upward flow of income. The measurement of the intergenerational transfer of poverty shows that there is a significant transfer effect between generations. Thirdly, based on the results of the theoretical analysis and the measurement of intergenerational income mobility, this paper uses the two stage tool variable method to study the impact of micro. This is the first analysis of the long-term intergenerational influence on the development of the progeny of the migrant workers' migrant workers. The conclusion shows that the income flow of the poor families can be influenced by many factors, including the demographic characteristics of families and the human capital of the family. The accumulation of the family, the economic basis of the family, the economic behavior of the family and the environment of the poverty-stricken families. The accumulation of human capital in the family and the migration of the labor of the family members will have a significant positive effect on the upward mobility of the poor families. The negative impact of the work has a negative impact on the employment of the offspring in regular sector units. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for improving poverty and promoting the upward mobility of the income of the poor.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F126.2
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本文编号：1905099