基于动态投入产出模型的湖南省消费与产业结构研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 19:10

本文选题：动态投入产出 + 消费　；参考：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展,社会生产的进步,如何进行资源调配是一件十分重要的事情.运用动态投入产出模型的规划达到高效的优化生产,对于经济的发展也起着至关重要的作用.动态投入产出理论是在静态投入产出理论的基础上产生的,是一门结合了计量经济学,矩阵理论,经济学以及统计学的综合性学说.对经济发展的整体有着宏观的调控作用.本文主要进行了以下的工作: 1.运用带消费,进出口,固定投资,库存的动态投入产出模型讨论了湖南省的经济发展状况,并预测出三大产业产值,通过与实际数据的比较验证了模型的可靠性.同时,通过分析投资倾向与消费倾向,得出投资和消费对三大产业的影响,为湖南省产业结构优化提出调整方向和改进意见. 2.本文分析了消费倾向和投资倾向对湖南省三大产业的影响.在本文第三章的实证分析中结合湖南省的具体情况和数据,对湖南省的经济情况进行分析和预测.其中着重分析了投资倾向与消费和湖南省三次产业之间的关系,并且运用计算所得的数据将投资倾向弹性对于三次产业的影响进行了研究.可以看出，投资对第一产业的影响很大,投资倾向对于第二产业的刺激性最大.对于消费,则是第一和第二产业的依赖度大于第三产业,并且消费倾向的增加对于第二产业的影响是最大的. 3.证明带消费,进出口,固定投资,库存的随机动态投入产出模型是一个马氏过程,则可以利用其性质,得出该模型崩溃时间为无穷是不可能的.从数学的角度论证了随机动态投入产出模型经过一定时间的发展必须要进行调整,否则经济会出现崩溃现象.这个结论也与实际情况相吻合.
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the progress of social production, how to allocate resources is a very important thing. Using the planning of dynamic input-output model to achieve efficient and optimal production is also very important for the development of economy. A comprehensive theory of econometrics, matrix theory, economics and statistics has a macro regulatory role in the overall economic development. The following work is carried out in this paper.
1. the dynamic input-output model with consumption, import, export, fixed investment and inventory is used to discuss the economic development of Hunan Province, and to predict the output value of three industries. By comparing with the actual data, the reliability of the model is verified. At the same time, the influence of investment and consumption on the three major industries is obtained by analyzing the investment tendency and consumption tendency. Hunan province's industrial structure optimization puts forward the direction of adjustment and suggestions for improvement.
2. this paper analyzes the influence of consumption tendency and investment tendency on the three major industries in Hunan province. In the empirical analysis of the third chapter of this article, combining with the specific situation and data of Hunan Province, the economic situation of Hunan province is analyzed and predicted. The relationship between investment tendency and consumption and the three industries of Hunan province is analyzed, and the application of this method is analyzed. The calculated data will study the impact of investment tendency elasticity on the three industry. It can be seen that investment has a great impact on the first industry, and the investment tendency is the most irritating to the second industry. For consumption, the dependence of the first and second industries is greater than the third industry, and the increase of consumption tendency is for the second production. The influence of the industry is the greatest.
3. it is proved that the stochastic dynamic input-output model with consumption, import, export, fixed investment and inventory is a Markov process, and it can be used to make use of its properties to conclude that the time of the model collapse is impossible. From the mathematical point of view, the development of random dynamic input-output model must be adjusted after a fixed time, otherwise the economy should be adjusted. There will be a breakdown phenomenon. This conclusion is also consistent with the actual situation.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224;F279.2

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