跨越“中等收入陷阱”:理论、经验和对策——基于44个国家的跨国实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-23 17:10

本文选题：中等收入陷阱 + 经济增长　；参考：《财经研究》2014年02期

【摘要】：文章以经典的经济增长理论为理论基础,分别考察了跌入"中等收入陷阱"的典型国家和跨越"中等收入陷阱"的典型国家,采用固定效应、一阶差分GMM和系统GMM计量方法,对影响经济增长的因素做了分析。文章的研究发现,通货膨胀、政府支出和高抚养比对"陷阱"国家的经济增长有明显的负面影响,而技术进步对"陷阱"国家的经济增长缺乏显著性。对跨越"陷阱"国家而言,投资、消费、技术对其经济增长呈现明显的拉动作用。我国人均GDP在进入上中等收入阶段后,在结构变迁过程中要及时转变经济发展方式,通过扩大消费、增加投资、促进技术进步来实现经济的稳定持续增长,同时要通过改革来避免过度城镇化,抑制通货膨胀,为我国经济增长创造一个稳定的外部环境,以使我国顺利跨越"中等收入陷阱"。
[Abstract]:Based on the classical economic growth theory, this paper investigates the typical countries that fall into the "middle income trap" and the typical countries that cross the "middle income trap" respectively. The method of fixed effect, first-order differential GMM and systematic GMM are adopted. The factors influencing economic growth are analyzed. It is found that inflation, government expenditure and high dependency ratio have obvious negative effects on the economic growth of the "trap" countries, while technological progress has no significant effect on the economic growth of the "trap" countries. For countries beyond the trap, investment, consumption and technology play a significant role in economic growth. After entering the upper middle income stage, China's per capita GDP should change the mode of economic development in time in the process of structural change, and realize the steady and sustained economic growth by expanding consumption, increasing investment and promoting technological progress. At the same time, it is necessary to avoid excessive urbanization, restrain inflation and create a stable external environment for China's economic growth, so as to make our country cross the "middle income trap" smoothly.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F124;F224

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