常州市经济发展与碳足迹的响应关系分析

发布时间：2018-05-26 21:33

本文选题：碳足迹 + 经济发展　；参考：《环境与可持续发展》2015年06期

【摘要】：采用物料衡算法测算常州市1986-2014年碳足迹,分析了经济发展与碳足迹之间的响应关系。研究发现:(1)常州市碳足迹整体呈现"先慢后快再缓"的增长趋势,2000年前增速较慢,"十五"时期为快速增长阶段,"十一五"后期开始增速放缓。(2)从能源结构看,煤炭消耗碳足迹占比最大,占比持续增长并于2001年达到最大(占92%)随后削减至59%。(3)碳足迹与GDP为显著的相关关系(R=0.997),且二者呈现强"倒U型"曲线关系,当常州市迈入后工业化阶段逐步逼近拐点。研究认为,碳足迹主要受经济增长影响,要控制碳足迹总量,较快地迈过拐点,必须从产业转型着手,加大科技投入,彻底扭转经济增长方式。
[Abstract]:The carbon footprint of Changzhou City from 1986 to 2014 was calculated by using the material balance algorithm, and the response relationship between economic development and carbon footprint was analyzed. The study found that the overall carbon footprint of Changzhou showed a trend of "slow first and then slow". The growth rate was relatively slow before 2000, the period of the 10th Five-Year Plan was a period of rapid growth, and the growth rate began to slow down in the late period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. The proportion of carbon footprint of coal consumption was the largest, the proportion of carbon footprint increased continuously and reached the maximum in 2001 (accounting for 922%) and then reduced to 59.t3) the correlation between carbon footprint and GDP was significant, and the two showed a strong "inverted U-shaped" curve relationship. When Changzhou steps into the industrialization stage, it gradually approaches the inflection point. It is believed that carbon footprint is mainly affected by economic growth. In order to control the total carbon footprint and cross the inflection point quickly, we must start from the industrial transformation, increase the investment of science and technology, and completely reverse the mode of economic growth.
【作者单位】：江苏省常州市环境科学研究院;江苏省环境科学研究院;
【分类号】：F127;X22

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