河北省区域金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 03:33

本文选题：金融发展 + 经济增长　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：世界各国的经济发展历程表明，，经济增长与金融发展息息相关。许多学者的大量研究文献揭示了经济增长与金融发展的关系，其基本观点有三种，第一种观点认为金融发展能够有效促进经济的增长；第二种观点恰好相反，认为金融发展只是被动的受经济增长所影响，而金融自身的发展对经济增长来说是无关紧要的；第三种观点则认为金融发展与经济增长之间的关系是相互依存的，互相制约，又互相促进。尽管人们对于金融与经济增长关系的看法存在许多争议，但经济学家和政策制定者都认为，金融系统对经济发展具有重要的影响。金融发展是现代经济发展的核心，金融发展构成了现代市场经济最主要的方面。目前国内研究区域金融发展与经济增长关系的文献屡见不鲜，但是对河北省区域金融发展与经济增长进行深入探讨的文章并不多见。因此本文选取了河北省区域金融发展与经济增长的关系为研究对象，并进行了系统研究。本文分别利用联立方程模型和面板数据模型对河北省金融发展与经济增长的关系进行分析。并从金融发展规模和金融效率两个方面入手，以实证分析为主，理论分析为辅。本文的第一部分将对河北省的金融发展的现状进行分析，从整体发展规模、河北省内部各地区发展情况以及与其他省份的比较三个方面入手。研究发现近年来河北省金融业平稳较快发展，但是与发达地区相比仍然有一定的差距，而省内不同地区的存贷款规模也存在一定的差异。第二部分建立了金融发展与经济增长的联立方程模型，并在联立方程模型的基础上进行了相关的情景分析。研究结果显示，河北省的金融发展对经济增长呈现显著的正向作用，金融中介效率却与经济增长呈现负相关；进出口和固定资产投资对经济增长起显著的促进作用，金融发展规模和进出口对金融中介的效率起积极的作用。第三部分利用河北省内11个设区市的面板数据建立面板数据模型，从截面和时间两个角度进一步分析了金融发展与经济增长的关系。根据协方差分析法和Hausman检验选取了个体固定影响变截距模型。通过对面板数据模型进行分析，我们发现，河北省的金融发展对经济增长具有显著的促进作用，而河北省的金融效率对经济增长的作用不显著。本文最终的研究结论是，河北省的金融发展对经济增长具有一定的促进作用，而信贷资金投放不够合理，导致了金融效率对经济增长没有起到很好的作用。因此合理优化信贷资源的投放是必要的。
[Abstract]:The economic development course of countries all over the world shows that economic growth and financial development are closely related. Many scholars have revealed the relationship between economic growth and financial development. There are three basic viewpoints. The first view is that financial development can effectively promote economic growth, and the second view is the opposite. The third view is that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is interdependent and mutually restricted. And promote each other. Although there is much debate about the relationship between finance and economic growth, economists and policymakers agree that the financial system has an important impact on economic development. Financial development is the core of modern economic development, and financial development constitutes the most important aspect of modern market economy. At present, the literature on the relationship between regional financial development and economic growth is common in China, but there are few articles on regional financial development and economic growth in Hebei province. Therefore, this paper selects the relationship between regional financial development and economic growth in Hebei Province as the research object, and carries on the systematic research. This paper analyzes the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Hebei Province by using simultaneous equation model and panel data model. And from two aspects of financial development scale and financial efficiency, empirical analysis, theoretical analysis as supplementary. The first part of this paper will analyze the present situation of the financial development of Hebei Province, starting with the overall development scale, the development situation of each region in Hebei Province and the comparison with other provinces. It is found that the financial industry of Hebei Province has developed steadily and rapidly in recent years, but there is still a certain gap compared with the developed regions, and there are some differences in the scale of deposit and loan in different regions of Hebei Province. The second part establishes the simultaneous equation model of financial development and economic growth, and carries on the related scenario analysis on the basis of the simultaneous equation model. The results show that the financial development of Hebei Province has a significant positive effect on economic growth, while the efficiency of financial intermediation is negatively correlated with economic growth, while import and export and fixed asset investment play a significant role in promoting economic growth. The scale of financial development and import and export play a positive role in the efficiency of financial intermediation. In the third part, the panel data model is established by using the panel data of 11 cities in Hebei province, and the relationship between financial development and economic growth is further analyzed from the perspective of section and time. Based on covariance analysis and Hausman test, the variable intercept model of individual fixed effect is selected. Through the analysis of panel data model, we find that the financial development of Hebei Province has a significant role in promoting economic growth, while the financial efficiency of Hebei Province does not play a significant role in economic growth. The final conclusion of this paper is that the financial development of Hebei Province has a certain role in promoting economic growth, but the investment of credit funds is not reasonable, resulting in financial efficiency has not played a good role in economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the credit resources reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F127;F832.7

【参考文献】