内生动力、机制与途径：中国二元经济转换的研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 11:15

本文选题：二元经济 + 二元经济结构转换　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：二元经济结构是指城市现代部门与农村传统农业部门并存的经济结构。发展中国家在经济增长与结构演变中都必须经历这个阶段,这反映了发展中国家结构成长上的“先天不足”。发展中国家在工业化阶段面临的主要任务就是对这种落后的国民经济结构进行改造,使异质的二元经济结构向同质的一元经济结构转换。中国作为一个发展中大国,二元经济结构是国民经济的基本特征。建国后,中国政府推行了重工业优先发展的经济战略,结果加大了二元经济的结构强度。而十一届三中全会后,中国以市场经济体制为方向进行了从农村到城市的全面改革,结果二元经济结构强度得到了很大程度的缓解。但跟发达国家相比,目前我国的二元经济结构特征明显；跟我们同水平的发展中国家相比,二元经济结构转换速度缓慢。二元转换的滞后带来了经济生活中诸多症结性问题：经济发展中的资源环境与市场需求的双重约束；劳动力资源配置与利用中的城乡双重就业压力；经济增长的速度与质量难以兼顾等等。因此推进二元经济结构转换不仅对于解决长期制约中国经济发展的“三农问题”具有十分重要的意义,而且可以缓解目前经济运行中的有效需求不足、就业压力等问题。基于此,本文以马克思主义经济学的研究方法为根本,从内生的角度探析了我国二元经济转换的动力与途径。二元经济最主要的特征是二元反差。从经济学上理解二元反差首先代表的是一种差异,但传统的二元经济理论只强调城市现代部门与农村传统农业部门之间的部门差异这一对立,而没有对二元反差进行多维度的探析,更没有结合发展中国家的现实说明差异的具体表现。结合中国的情况,可以归纳出二元反差的三个维度与表现形式：一为传统农业部门与现代非农部门之间的对立,具体表现为两大部门的生产率差距；二是农业劳动力与非农劳动力之间的对立,它通常表现为城乡居民收入上的差距,在我国可以用城乡居民收入比、差值基尼系数等衡量；三是城市与农村的对立,这种对立表现为城市与农村之间发展水平上的地域差距,不仅表现在经济方面,还表现在政治、文化等方面,农村发展水平滞后于城市。从马克思主义哲学上理解,二元反差代表的又是一组矛盾,这些矛盾存在着二元经济体中,既对立又统一,会推动二元经济向一元经济的转换。这就是二元经济向一元经济转换的内在动力。在不同的动力驱使下,二元转换的路径也会呈现出多元性。研究思路与研究框架通过如此安排,发展经济学的二元经济理论与马克思经济学的矛盾分析方法有效结合在了一起,三个分析的视角在本文自然展开。第一个视角是农村劳动力转移与二元结构转换。从就业主体的维度考察我国的二元反差,它直接表现为农民的人均纯收入低于城市居民的人均可支配性收入,两者的差距必然导致农村劳动力向非农产业的转移。将农村劳动力转移到非农就业对促进农村居民增收有两方面的作用：一方面非农产业收入普通高于务农收入,因此可以直接增加农村居民的收入；另一方面,农村劳动力的转移减少了农业劳动力,从而有利于农业劳动生产率的提高,增加农民收入。通过这两种作用,二元经济的反差得以缓解。为此本文进行了三方面的实证分析：一是讨论二元反差程度对城乡收入差距的收入分配效应。结果证实二元对比系数与城乡收入比和城乡差值系数负相关关系明显；二是用误差修正模型分析了城乡收入差距与农村劳动力非农转移之间的影响效应。分析结果表明,我国农村劳动力非农就业人数的变化与城乡差值基尼系数的变化在长期中存在着均衡关系,差值基尼系数代表的城乡差距越大,农村劳动力非农转移的人数增加得越多。三是农村劳动力非农转移对二元经济结构转换的影响效应。VAR模型的分析结果证实我国农村劳动力非农转移有利于二元经济结构的转换,脉冲响应函数的冲击效应也显示农村劳动力非农转移的人数对二元反差指数有稳定的负冲击效应。在此基础上,本文论述了农村劳动力转移的三种途径：一是农民“离土不离乡”的乡镇企业就业模式；二是“既离土又离乡”的进城务工模式,即农民工；三是农村家庭的非农经营模式。最后提出了有利于农村劳动力非永久性转移、加快农民工市民化与农民退出机制的建设内容。第二个视角是传统农业现代化与二元结构转换。从产业的维度考察我国的二元反差,它表现为是落后的农业与发达的非农产业之间的生产率差距,这一差距必然表现为二元对比系数偏小。换句话说,农业产值占国民经济总产值的比重太小,而吸纳的劳动力人数占就业总人数的比重又过高。所以实现传统农业的现代化可以提高农民的务农收入,也是改善二元经济结构的重要途径。基于此,本文对西奥多·舒尔茨与黄宗智的理论评述与分析的基础上,从人地关系紧张的资源禀赋出发,用经验数据证实了中国传统农业的“内卷”困境～低边际生产力。并认为19世纪80年代开始以来持续增加的非农就业,城乡居民食物消费结构转型带来的农业生产结构的改变是改善人地关系紧张的内在动力。再加上人口转型的外力影响,中国传统农业可以走出困境,但途径不是美国式的土地密集的大农场,而应该是适度规模的家庭农场及其以家庭农场为生产基础的纵向一体化组织：“公式+农户”、专业合作社与政府组织的专业农产品市场。最后从支持农业、构建现代农业生产体系、实现农业产业化经营等方面提出了政策建议。第三个视角是城乡融合发展与二元结构转换。从地域的维度考察我国的二元经济反差,它是指农村与城市的差距,这表现在生活水平、经济发展、公共服务与环保水平等方面农村的发展滞后于城市。所以落后的农村如果能发展成为城市,或者发达的城市通过辐射与扩张到周边农村进而带动其城市化,那么这种城乡融合的城市化也能改善二元经济结构。为此本文从中国二元经济结构转换的经验事实出发,分析了城乡融合发展的两种主要动力与途径：一是以乡镇企业为主要载体的乡村工业大发展,进而聚集所推动的小城镇建设,理论与实证的分析结果都证实,从19世纪80年代初到90年代末,它是我国城市化率提高的重要因素。二是城市经济的集聚与扩散效应所促进的城市化率的提高,理论与实证分析表明大中城市向城市郊区的扩散所带来的效应十分显著。在此基础上,文章还用休闲产业的“农家乐”为例分析了一种新的城乡融合形式,即农业与非农产业互不吞噬对方的前提下,两者在城乡结合部的融合集聚所导致的城乡融合。并认为这种途径是一种可持续的、绿色低碳的城乡融合道路。以上三个视角的分析表明,促使二元经济向一元经济转换的内在矛盾是多维的,二元经济转换的途径注定也是多维的。为了早日实现中国二元经济结构的转换,就应当提倡坚持走多元化的二元转换道路。即扬弃那种在经济发展中非此即彼、片面强调某一发展战略的传统思维,通过多种途径、多种方式来实现二元经济结构转换。把农村劳动力的乡城转移、传统农业的现代化、城乡融合的城市化三者有效地结合在一起。本文的创新点主要在于以下三个方面：一是研究视角的新颖。把研究的重心放在“转换”二字上,并从内生的角度揭示转换的动力与途径；二是结论上的新见解。认为二元经济转换的内生动力在于二元经济体中的内部矛盾。中国二元经济结构转换有三种内在动力：一是农村劳动力由于城乡收入差距的非农转移；二是中国传统农业走出“内卷”困境的内在动力-人地关系改善背景下的农业经营模式与组织模式的创新；三是城乡融合促进的城市化,其内在动力为乡村工业化促进的小城镇建设与城市经济的集聚与扩散效应。三是政策结论上的创新,主张走二元经济结构转换的多元化道路。
[Abstract]:The two - dimensional economic structure refers to the economic structure of the coexistence of the urban modern department and the rural traditional agricultural sector . The developing countries must go through this stage in the development of economic growth and structure . The main task of developing countries in the industrialization stage is to transform the backwardness national economy structure to the homogeneous one - element economic structure . After the founding of the Eleventh Central Committee , the Chinese government has carried out the comprehensive reform from the countryside to the city with the market economic system .
Compared with the developing countries , the transformation rate of binary economy is slow . The lag of binary transformation brings many problems in economic life : the dual restriction of resource environment and market demand in economic development ;
Dual employment pressure between urban and rural areas in the allocation and utilization of labor force ;
Therefore , it is very important to promote the transformation of the two - dimensional economic structure not only to solve the problem of " three agricultural problems " which restrict the economic development of China for a long time , but also to alleviate the problems of insufficient effective demand and pressure of employment in the current economic operation .

The main characteristics of the two - dimensional economy are the duality contrast . It is the difference between the traditional two - dimensional economic theory that the difference is first represented by the duality contrast , but the traditional duality economic theory only emphasizes the difference between the modern department of the city and the traditional agricultural sector of the rural area , but does not have the concrete expression of the difference of the real explanation of the developing countries .
Second , the contradiction between the agricultural labor force and the non - agricultural labor force , which is usually manifested as the gap between the urban and rural residents ' income , can be measured by the income ratio of the urban and rural residents , the difference of the coefficient of the difference , etc . ;
Third , the opposition between urban and rural areas shows that the gap between urban and rural development lies not only in economy , but also in politics , culture and so on .

The first angle of view is the transfer of rural labor force and the transformation of binary structure . From the perspective of the subject of employment , the duality contrast of our country is studied . It shows that the net income per person is lower than the disposable income of the urban residents . The gap between them will inevitably lead to the transfer of rural labor force to the non - agricultural industry .
On the other hand , the transfer of rural labor force has reduced the agricultural labor force , thus being beneficial to the improvement of agricultural labor productivity and increasing farmers ' income .
Based on the analysis of VAR model , it is proved that rural labor non - farm transfer is beneficial to the transformation of dual economic structure , and the impact of impulse response function shows that the rural labor force non - farm transfer is beneficial to the transformation of binary economy structure .
The second is the urban migrant worker mode , namely the migrant workers , which is " separated from the soil " ;
The third is the non - agricultural operation mode of the rural families . Finally , the article puts forward the construction content which is beneficial to the non - permanent transfer of rural labor force and speed up the peasant worker ' s urbanization and the peasant withdrawal mechanism .

The second angle of view is the transformation of traditional agricultural modernization and dual structure . From the perspective of industry , the duality contrast of China is studied . It shows that agricultural output value is too small , and the proportion of agricultural production structure is too high .

The third angle of view is the development of urban and rural integration and the transformation of binary structure . From the perspective of geography , it is pointed out that the rural development is lagging behind the city .

The analysis of the above three angles shows that the inherent contradiction of the transformation of the binary economy to the one - dollar economy is multidimensional , and the way of binary economic transformation is destined to be multi - dimensional . In order to realize the transformation of China ' s binary economic structure at an early date , we should advocate to adhere to the two - dimensional transformation road of diversification .

The innovation point of this paper lies in the following three aspects : one is the novelty of the research angle of view , the focus of the research is put on the " transformation " two words , and the power and the way of the transformation are revealed from the endogenous angle ;
The second is the new opinion on the conclusion that the endogenous power of the transformation of the binary economy lies in the internal contradictions in the binary economy . There are three internal forces in the transformation of the two - dimensional economic structure : one is the non - agricultural transfer of the rural labor force due to the gap between urban and rural income ;
Second , China ' s traditional agriculture goes out of the internal power of " inner volume " predicament and the innovation of agricultural operation mode and organization mode in the context of human - land relationship improvement ;
The third is the urbanization of urban and rural integration , in which the power is the small town construction promoted by the rural industrialization and the agglomeration and diffusion effect of the urban economy . The third is the innovation in the policy conclusion , and advocates the diversification of the transformation of the dual economic structure .
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124

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