2014—2015年中国宏观经济再展望

发布时间：2018-05-27 14:17

本文选题：中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM) + 宏观经济　；参考：《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2014年06期

【摘要】："中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2014年9月12日在德国海德堡举行了中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)第十五次预测发布。报告显示,2014年下半年中国经济增长减速的态势还将继续,预计全年GDP增速为7.49%。物价水平保持温和上涨态势,CPI预计将上涨2.51%。受制造业产能过剩、房地产业库存增加以及地方政府还债压力的影响,2015年中国经济增长减速的趋势还将继续,GDP增速将会继续小幅下滑。课题组模拟了下调预期经济增长率的宏观经济效应。根据预测及政策模拟结果,课题组建议:将明后两年的经济增长目标调整至7.2%左右有利于在一定程度上改善主要宏观经济指标。政府适当减轻频繁的稳增长微刺激政策调控操作,通过深化改革、调整结构,改变发展方式,提高潜在的经济增长率,有利于在下一轮的经济增长上行阶段,争取更好的经济增长实绩。
[Abstract]:The "China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model CQMM" group held its fifteenth forecast in Heidelberg, Germany, on September 12, 2014. The report showed that the slowdown in China's economic growth will continue in the second half of 2014, with GDP expected to grow at 7.49 for the full year. Price levels to maintain a moderate upward trend CPI is expected to rise 2.51%. The slowdown in China's economy in 2015 will continue to see a slight decline in GDP growth, driven by overcapacity in manufacturing, rising real estate inventories and pressure on local governments to repay debt. The research group simulated the macroeconomic effect of lowering the expected economic growth rate. According to the results of forecast and policy simulation, it is suggested that adjusting the economic growth target to about 7.2% in the next two years will help to improve the main macroeconomic indicators to a certain extent. The government should appropriately reduce the frequency of stable growth and micro-stimulus policy regulation and control operations, by deepening reform, adjusting the structure, changing the mode of development, and raising the potential economic growth rate, which is conducive to the next upward stage of economic growth. Strive for better economic growth.
【作者单位】：厦门大学宏观经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“经济持续健康发展与收入倍增计划的实现路径研究”(13&ZD029);国家社科基金青年项目“要素价格扭曲与经济结构失衡关系研究”(13CJL017) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“发展服务经济的经济发展及结构转换效应研究”(14JJD790007);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“矫正要素比价扭曲,推进经济发展方式转变问题研究”(13JJD790026)
【分类号】：F124

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