人口老龄化对居民消费影响的异质性研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 22:05

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 居民消费　；参考：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化问题对经济的影响持续而深远，并将成为制约未来社会发展的重要因素。在吸收国内外学者各类研究成果的基础上，本文从理论和实证的角度分析中国人口老龄化对居民消费产生的异质性影响。首先，使用时间序列数据，运用向量自回归模型分析人口老龄化和居民消费之间相关性的存在性，得出人口老龄化是引起中国各地区居民消费变化的一个显著因素；其次，运用方差分析论证人口老龄化对居民消费的影响存在的异质性，在国家层面上，，人口老龄化对居民消费存在显著异质性影响，这与被考察国家的经济发展状况有关系；再次，利用1993年-2010年的中国各省市老年抚养比和人均居民消费数据，基于坎贝尔和曼昆的混合模型，建立符合中国国情的老年抚养比与居民消费增量之间的消费模型，发现国内不同经济发达程度地区，老年人口抚养比对居民消费增量的影响系数是不同的；最后，通过研究老年人口抚养比对居民消费结构影响，研究人口老龄化对消费结构的异质性影响。实证研究结果表明，人口老龄化是引起居民消费变化的显著因素，且人口老龄化对居民消费的影响存在异质性。异质性体现在国家的层面上，不同经济发展状况国家之间这种影响是有差异的，老龄化对于处在不同工业化阶段国家的居民消费影响显著且存在门限特征：发达地区人口老龄化程度高、居民消费水平高，欠发达地区的人口老龄化程度低、居民消费水平低；异质性体现在国内地区的层面上，不同经济发展程度地区之间的这种影响有差异，经济发达地区呈现正向影响，经济欠发达地区呈现负向影响。对于消费结构的异质性影响，随着老年人口数量增加，普通城镇居民家庭对食品、医疗保健和居住三者的支出增加最为明显，对人均交通通信消费和教育文化娱乐服务消费的支出减少最为明显。通过以上实证研究得出的结论，为决策部门在不同经济发展阶段适时制定相应决策提供理论支持，达到正向引导居民消费水平、优化居民消费结构的目的。
[Abstract]:The problem of population aging has a lasting and far-reaching impact on the economy and will become an important factor restricting the development of society in the future. On the basis of absorbing all kinds of research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper analyzes the heterogeneous influence of aging population on the consumption of residents in China from the theoretical and empirical point of view. Firstly, using time series data and using vector autoregressive model to analyze the existence of correlation between population aging and residents' consumption, it is concluded that population aging is a significant factor that causes the change of residents' consumption in various regions of China. Analysis of variance is used to demonstrate the heterogeneity of the influence of population aging on resident consumption. At the national level, the aging of population has significant heterogeneity effect on resident consumption, which is related to the economic development of the country under investigation. Based on the data of elderly dependency ratio and per capita resident consumption from 1993 to 2010, and based on the mixed model of Campbell and Mancun, the consumption model between the elderly dependency ratio and the resident consumption increment, which is suitable for China's national conditions, is established. It is found that the influence coefficient of resident consumption increment is different in different economic developed areas of China. Finally, by studying the influence of elderly population dependency ratio on resident consumption structure, This paper studies the heterogeneous effect of population aging on consumption structure. The empirical results show that the aging of the population is a significant factor in the change of resident consumption, and the influence of the aging of the population on the consumption of residents is heterogeneity. Heterogeneity is reflected at the national level, and there are differences in this effect among countries with different economic development conditions. Aging has a significant impact on the consumption of residents in different industrialized countries and has the following characteristics: the degree of population aging in developed areas is high, the level of resident consumption is high, the level of population aging in less developed areas is low, and the level of residents' consumption is low; The heterogeneity is reflected in the level of the domestic region. There are differences in this kind of influence between the different economic development degree regions, the economic developed areas present positive influence, and the economic underdeveloped areas have the negative influence. As for the heterogeneity of the consumption structure, as the number of the elderly population increases, the average urban households' expenditure on food, health care and housing is the most obvious. The decrease in per capita consumption of transportation, communication and educational, cultural and recreational services was most evident. The conclusions obtained from the above empirical study provide theoretical support for policy-making departments to make corresponding decisions in different stages of economic development in order to achieve the purpose of positively guiding the consumption level of residents and optimizing the consumption structure of residents.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2

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