城市化率与我国居民消费率的关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 22:11

本文选题：城市化率 + 劳动份额　；参考：《消费经济》2014年04期

【摘要】：本文试图从理论和实证两方面揭示城市化率与居民消费率之间的关系,由此来理解我国城市化进程中居民消费率长时间下降的深层次原因。理论分析表明,随着城市化进程的不断推进和经济发展水平的提高,居民消费率呈现出先下降后上升的U型特征。为了证实上述理论研究的结论,本文运用世界40个国家2010年的截面数据、我国1952-2012年的时间序列数据以及2005-2012年我国大陆31个省(自治区和直辖市)的省际面板数据,实证检验了城市化率以及经济发展水平与居民消费率之间的关系。结果显示,城市化率以及经济发展水平与居民消费率之间的U型关系的确存在,并且我国或许已经到达或越过了U型曲线拐点,居民消费率可能已进入了上升通道。
[Abstract]:This paper attempts to reveal the relationship between the urbanization rate and the resident consumption rate from both the theoretical and the empirical aspects, so as to understand the deep-seated reasons for the long-term decline of the resident consumption rate in the process of urbanization in China. The theoretical analysis shows that with the development of urbanization and the improvement of economic development, the consumption rate of residents decreases first and then rises. In order to confirm the conclusion of the above theoretical research, this paper uses the cross section data of 40 countries in the world, the time series data of China from 1952 to 2012, and the interprovincial panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2005 to 2012. The relationship between the urbanization rate and the level of economic development and the resident consumption rate is tested empirically. The results show that the U-type relationship between urbanization rate, economic development level and resident consumption rate does exist. Moreover, China may have reached or crossed the U-shaped curve inflection point, and the resident consumption rate may have entered the rising channel.
【作者单位】：青岛理工大学经贸学院;
【基金】：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(12CJJJ08) 青岛市社会科学规划研究项目(QDSKL110213)
【分类号】：F299.2;F126;F224

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