陕西省低碳经济发展水平空间差异特征及其动态变化机制

发布时间：2018-05-30 02:17

本文选题：低碳经济 + 碳排放　；参考：《陕西师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球气候变暖带来的一系列环境和生态问题,比如冰川消融、海平面上升淹没沿海地区和各地区降水量差异加大等许多负面问题,严重影响着人类的生存环境和生产生活。全球气候变暖影响因子中,二氧化碳的排放占温室气体排放总量的60%,因此,降低碳排放、发展低碳经济是人类经济活动可持续发展的重要保障手段,国内外学者对如何发展低碳经济分别从不同的角度进行了研究,包括发展低碳经济的必要性论证与实现方式探讨、进行经济增长与温室气体排放的关系的理论探讨与实证研究。本文选取陕西省为研究案例区,采用回归模型、库兹涅茨曲线分析陕西能源消耗带来的碳排放量的动态变化趋势,运用层次分析法、K均值聚类方法、“脱钩”理论等理论与方法,测算陕西省低碳经济发展水平与空间差异,总结陕西省低碳经济发展水平分类特征及空间分异的形成机制,预测陕西省低碳经济与碳排放变化趋势,并在此基础上提出陕西省低碳经济发展合理建议。本研究认为： (1)陕西省能源消耗未来仍将持续增长,能源结构不断调整 1989年～2010年,陕西省主要能源消耗量和消耗速率表现为：煤炭消耗量最大,其次是石油消耗量,再次是天然气消耗量；消耗量速率对比表现为煤炭消耗增长速率最小,天然气消耗增长速率最大,石油消耗次之。其中陕西省煤炭的消费量所占比例由1989年的90.47%降低至2010年的74.51%,石油消耗量所占比例由1989年的9.53%增长至2010年的17.12%,天然气消耗量所占比例由1989年的0.01%增长至2010年的8.37%。陕西省各种能源的消耗量整体呈现增长的趋势,并且在未来仍将将持续增长。 (2)陕西省碳排放增长速率未来逐渐降低 1989年～2010年,陕西省的碳排放总体上呈增长趋势,年均增长8.7%,略低于陕西省同时期的年均生产总值增长率。由经济增长和碳排放之间的“脱钩”关系和库兹涅茨曲线分析可知：陕西省碳排放受经济增长的影响很大,同时期陕西省碳排放增长速率变化趋势与经济增长趋势基本相同,但碳排放增长趋势要稍微慢于经济增长的趋势,表明碳排放的滞后效应。由陕西省能源增长趋势和碳排放增长趋势预测可知：两者将持续增长,但两者增长速率都将降低。陕西省的经济发展阶段还处于高经济增长、高污染、高碳排放阶段。陕西省的节能减排工作应当注重调整能源消耗结构,着重发展可再生能源。 (3)陕西省低碳经济发展空间差异特征根据陕西省各地市的低碳经济发展水平指数评价,通过K均值聚类方法将陕西省各地市聚类分析,将陕西省各地市分为高碳区、相对高碳区和低碳区三个区域,其中榆林和渭南市属于高碳区,延安市、宝鸡市、咸阳市、杨陵区、铜川市和汉中市属于相对高碳区,安康市、商洛市和西安市属于低碳区。 (4)各地市低碳经济发展措施建议根据评价结果,结合陕西省各地市的具体情况,提出一系列的发展低碳经济的对策。对于高碳区的低碳经济发展,重点是改善该区的工业产业结构,这是一个缓慢的过程,因此该区应当制定长远的规划,降低重工业的产业比例,还应当改善该类分区地的生态环境,增加碳汇能力。相对高碳区涉及市区较多,但都应当因地制宜的发展经济,该分区很多市经济发展较为落后,所以就应当大力发展经济水平,其次就更应当协调第二产业和第三产业的发展速率。低碳区的陕南两市和西安市,在经济发展、产业结构等方面有着一系列的巨大差异,因此在今后的发展中,陕南地区在注重环境保护的同时,以大力发展经济为先；西安市在加强作为陕西省中心城市的同时,促进服务行业的发展,减少重工业的发展,加大高科技水平的产业发展规模。选取循环经济的手段,作为陕西省发展低碳经济的重要手段,着重发展煤炭循环经济发展模式,应对以煤炭为主的能源消耗结构。
[Abstract]:A series of environmental and ecological problems caused by global warming, such as the melting of glaciers, sea level rise inundation of coastal areas and the increase of precipitation in various regions, seriously affect the living environment and production and life of human beings. The carbon dioxide emissions account for the total emission of greenhouse gases among the factors of global warming. 60%, therefore, reducing carbon emissions and developing low carbon economy is an important guarantee for the sustainable development of human economic activities. Scholars at home and abroad have studied how to develop low carbon economy from different angles, including the necessity of developing low carbon economy and the discussion of the way of realizing the low carbon economy, and carrying out the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The theoretical and Empirical Study of the Department.
In this paper, Shaanxi province is selected as a case study area, using regression model and Kuznets curve to analyze the dynamic change trend of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shaanxi. Using the analytic hierarchy process, K means clustering method, "decoupling" theory and other theories and methods, it calculates the low carbon economic development level and spatial difference in Shaanxi Province, and sums up the low carbon in Shaanxi province. The characteristics of the level of economic development and the formation mechanism of spatial differentiation are used to predict the trend of low carbon economy and carbon emission in Shaanxi Province, and on this basis, a reasonable proposal for the development of low carbon economy in Shaanxi province is put forward.
(1) Shaanxi's energy consumption will continue to grow in the future, and the energy structure will continue to adjust.
From 1989 to 2010, the main energy consumption and consumption rate of Shaanxi province were as follows: coal consumption was the largest, followed by oil consumption, and again the consumption of natural gas; the comparison of consumption rate showed that the growth rate of coal consumption was the smallest, the growth rate of natural gas consumption was the largest, and the consumption of oil was the second. The consumption of coal in Shaanxi province was the same. The proportion of the account was reduced from 90.47% in 1989 to 74.51% in 2010. The proportion of oil consumption increased from 9.53% in 1989 to 17.12% in 2010. The proportion of natural gas consumption increased from 0.01% in 1989 to 8.37%. in 2010. The overall consumption of various energy sources in Shaanxi province was increasing, and it will continue to grow in the future.
(2) the growth rate of carbon emissions in Shaanxi will gradually decrease in the future.
From 1989 to 2010, the carbon emissions in Shaanxi province showed an overall growth trend, with an annual increase of 8.7%, slightly lower than the annual average annual growth rate of Shaanxi province. From the "decoupling" relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions and Kuznets curve analysis, the carbon emissions in Shaanxi province were greatly influenced by economic growth, and the carbon of Shaanxi Province in the same period was carbon. The trend of the emission growth rate is basically the same as the trend of economic growth, but the growth trend of carbon emissions is slightly slower than the trend of economic growth. It shows that the lag effect of carbon emissions is predicted by the trend of energy growth and the trend of carbon emission growth in Shaanxi province. Both of them will continue to increase, but both the growth rate of the two will be reduced. The economy of Shaanxi province will be reduced. The development stage is still in the stage of high economic growth, high pollution and high carbon emissions. The energy saving and emission reduction work in Shaanxi should be focused on adjusting the energy consumption structure and focusing on the development of renewable energy.
(3) the spatial difference characteristics of low carbon economy development in Shaanxi Province
According to the low carbon economic development level index of Shaanxi Province, the cluster analysis of Shaanxi provinces is classified by K means clustering method. The cities of Shaanxi province are divided into high carbon region, relatively high carbon area and low carbon region, of which Yulin and Weinan cities belong to high carbon region, Yanan City, Baoji City, Xianyang City, Yangling District, Tongchuan city and Hanzhoung. The city is relatively high carbon area, Ankang City, Shangluo and Xi'an belong to low carbon area.
(4) suggestions on the development of low carbon economy in various cities
According to the results of the evaluation, a series of countermeasures for developing low carbon economy are put forward in combination with the specific situation of cities in Shaanxi province. For the low carbon economy development of high carbon region, the emphasis is to improve the industrial structure of the area, which is a slow process. Therefore, the region should formulate long-term plan to reduce the industrial proportion of heavy industry, and should also improve the industry. The ecological environment of this kind of area will increase the capacity of carbon sequestration. The relatively high carbon area involves more urban areas, but all of them should develop economy in the light of local conditions. Many cities in this area are backward in economic development. Therefore, the economic level should be developed vigorously. Secondly, the development rate of the second industry and the third industry should be coordinated more. The two cities of South Shaanxi in the low carbon region should be coordinated. And Xi'an City, in the economic development, industrial structure and so on a series of huge differences, so in the future development, the south of Shaanxi Province, while paying attention to environmental protection, in order to vigorously develop the economy, while strengthening the city of Xi'an as the central city of Shaanxi, promote the development of the service industry, reduce the development of heavy industry, and increase the height of the city. The scale of industrial development of scientific and technological level. As an important means of developing low carbon economy in Shaanxi Province, we should focus on developing the development mode of coal recycling economy, and deal with the energy consumption structure based on coal.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;X22

【参考文献】