工业化过程中城市化、经济增长对城乡收入差距的影响

发布时间：2018-05-30 15:16

本文选题：城市化 + 工业化　；参考：《河南财经政法大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：基于二元经济理论，工业化过程中城市化、经济增长和城乡收入差距之间存在一个内在的数量关系。本文首先回顾总结了城市化、经济增长与城乡差距关系研究的文献，对三者的演化轨迹进行统计性描述分析，然后建立理论模型，最后使用中国1978-2011年的数据进行经验验证。研究发现：（1）随着经济的不断增长，城乡收入差距有不断扩大的趋势，且随时间路径影响越来越大。当城乡收入差距保持不变时，如果给定一个稳定的经济增长率，则随着经济增长，城市化在时间路径上开始增长迅速，随后以递减的速度增长。（2）理论分析认为城市化水平越高，城乡收入差距越小；但我国的城市化进程中城市化短期内不是城乡收入差距的格兰杰原因，长期却会拉大城乡收入差距；经济增长与城乡收入差距之间存在正向关系，经济增长越快，城乡收入差距越大；在经济高速增长的情况下，若要保持城乡收入差距稳定，则城市化水平需要同步提高。（3）随着经济发展，农村经济承载人口的能力会逐渐减弱，不能创造足够多的收入让农民不离开家园就过上与经济增长成果相适的生活。（4）从长远来看，现代部门经济高速增长的背景下如果要使城乡人均收入差距不再扩大，只能顺应工业化和城市化发展的普遍规律，同步推进农业产业化、工业化和城市化，稳步实现乡-城人口转移，减少农民，进而从根本上解决所谓的“三农”问题、消除二元结构，实现包容性增长，让城乡居民共享经济增长成果。基于上述理论分析和经验证明，，我们做出推论，在现代经济高速增长的背景下，农村经济的人口承载能力会越来越弱，就地吸收剩余劳动力已被证明行不通，如果要使城乡人均收入差距不再扩大，唯一的办法是加速实现乡-城人口转移，减少农民。
[Abstract]:Based on the two element economic theory, there is an internal quantitative relationship between urbanization, economic growth and income gap between urban and rural areas in the process of industrialization.
This paper first reviews and summarizes the literature on the relationship between urbanization, economic growth and urban-rural gap, carries out a statistical description of the evolutionary trajectory of the three, then sets up a theoretical model, and finally uses the data of China for 1978-2011 years to verify it. The study finds that (1) the income gap between urban and rural areas continues to expand with the growth of the economy. When the income gap between urban and rural areas remains constant, when the income gap between urban and rural areas remains constant, if a stable economic growth rate is given, the urbanization begins to grow rapidly along the time path with the economic growth. (2) the higher the urbanization level, the smaller the income gap between urban and rural areas; However, in the course of urbanization in China, urbanization is not the Grainger cause of income gap in urban and rural areas in the short term, but it will widen the income gap between urban and rural areas for a long time; there is a positive relationship between economic growth and urban and rural income gap, the faster economic growth is, the greater the income gap between urban and rural areas; in the case of rapid economic growth, the income gap between urban and rural areas should be maintained. Stability, the level of urbanization needs to be improved synchronously. (3) with the economic development, the capacity of the rural economy to carry the population will gradually weaken, can not create enough income to allow farmers to live without leaving their homes to live with the economic growth results. (4) in the long run, the current generation of economic growth in the rapid growth of the sector if the urban and rural people The average income gap is no longer expanding. It can only conform to the universal law of industrialization and urbanization, promote agricultural industrialization, industrialization and urbanization, realize the rural urban population transfer, reduce farmers, and fundamentally solve the so-called "three rural" problems, eliminate the two yuan structure, achieve inclusive growth, and make urban and rural residents share the economy. Growth results.
Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical evidence, we make a conclusion that, under the background of rapid economic growth, the population carrying capacity of rural economy will become weaker and weaker. It is proved impossible to absorb surplus labor in place. If the gap between urban and rural income is no longer expanded, the only way is to accelerate the rural urban population transfer and reduce the population transfer. Few farmers.
【学位授予单位】：河南财经政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2;F124.1;F124.7

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