基于需求层次的农村居民消费预期对消费结构影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-01 13:14

本文选题：消费预期 + 消费结构　；参考：《华中农业大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放三十多年,我国经济保持了高速增长的态势,并取得了举世瞩目的成就,现如今,消费、投资和净出口已经成为拉动经济持续增长的三驾马车。其中,消费需求是社会生产过程的出发点和归宿,是推动经济发展的原动力。从1997年的亚洲金融危机到2008年由美国次贷危机引发的一场全球性的经济危机,我国政府逐步意识到了内需对经济的重要作用。截止到2012年,我国依靠外需拉动的“外向型”经济增长方式已经陷入了“瓶颈”。因此刺激国内居民消费,以缓解金融危机成为我国政府的必然选择。我国是农业大国,有着七亿多农村居民,再加上长久以来形成的城乡二元经济体制,城乡差距较大,农村消费市场长期得不到发展繁荣,需求得不到满足,使得现如今的农村消费市场被各界认为是中国最有潜力的蓝海市场,可以说增加农村居民收入,改善农村消费环境,扩大农村消费内需是现阶段亟需解决的问题。同时消费结构又是消费问题的重要部分,消费结构的合理程度对消费的发展起着重要作用。优化农村居民消费结构对扩大农村居民消费、正确评价农村居民消费、促进农村居民不断提高消费水平和消费质量有着重大意义。现代市场经济条件下,消费者作为市场运行的参与主体占据了支配性的主导地位,如今影响消费者行为预期的因素越来越重要。由于农村资源长期被城市挤占,农村居民在生活中面临着就业、养老、医疗、教育、住房等各方面的不确定性,形成了对未来消费及生活的悲观预期,从而对消费行为产生了较大的负面影响。对现有文献回顾可以看出,我国学者对消费预期与消费行为相关性的研究较少,且方法较为传统,多以消费函数作为分析工具,通过对时间或截面数据的实证分析来研究变量之间的相关性。本文则对实地调研获得的有关农村居民特定的消费预期心理的数据进行定性与定量分析,运用层次分析法构建“预期—消费结构”评价模型,探索农村居民消费预期对消费结构的影响作用,以期得出的研究结论可以具有一定的应用意义。本文研究主要得出以下结论：第一,农村居民消费结构逐步转型,已由基本生存型的温饱消费向追求个人发展等高层次需求转变。第二,农村居民消费预期受多方面预期因素的综合影响,进而对消费结构的形成产生影响。其中家庭收入增长预期和家庭消费支出预期对消费结构影响比较大,权重分别为0.359和0.279,超过了另外三个影响因子的权重合。第三,家庭收入增长预期是影响消费结构的首要因素,相对于其他因素对消费结构的影响最大,主要通过未来家庭总收入量、收入来源、对未来生活的信心和固定收入量四方面的预期对消费结构施加影响力。第四,农村居民生活面临不确定性因素较多,未来消费支出受多方面支出预期的影响。婚嫁、受教育发展、医疗卫生、享受服务、未来养老、红白喜事等都会作为农村居民未来支出的一个重要方面,对当期消费产生一定的影响。第五,政策性预期因素对农村居民消费结构具有一定的影响力,但影响力度仍需加强。
[Abstract]:After thirty years of reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained a rapid growth trend and achieved remarkable achievements. Now, consumption, investment and net exports have become the three carriages to stimulate the sustained economic growth. Among them, the consumption demand is the starting point and destination of the social production process and the motive force to promote economic development. From 1997 As the Asian financial crisis reached a global economic crisis caused by the American subprime crisis in 2008, our government gradually realized the important role of domestic demand to the economy. By 2012, our country's "export-oriented" economic growth mode, driven by foreign demand, had fallen into the "bottleneck". Therefore, the domestic consumption should be stimulated to relieve the gold. The financial crisis has become the inevitable choice of our government. China is a big agricultural country. There are more than 700000000 rural residents, and the urban and rural two yuan economic system has been formed for a long time, the gap between urban and rural areas is larger, the rural consumption market is not prosperous for a long time, and the demand is not satisfied, so the rural consumer market is considered the most in China. The potential blue sea market can be said to increase the income of the rural residents, improve the rural consumption environment and expand the rural consumption domestic demand. At the same time, the consumption structure is an important part of the consumption problem, and the reasonable degree of consumption structure plays an important role in the development of consumption. It is of great significance for rural residents to correctly evaluate the consumption of rural residents and improve the consumption level and quality of rural residents.
Under the condition of modern market economy, the consumer as the main body of participation in the market operation occupies a dominant position. Nowadays, the factors that affect the expectation of consumer behavior are becoming more and more important. As the rural resources are occupied by the city for a long time, the rural residents face the uncertainty of employment, old age, health care, education, housing and other aspects in their lives. A pessimistic anticipation of future consumption and life is formed, which has a greater negative impact on consumer behavior.
It can be seen from the review of the existing literature that there are few studies on the correlation between consumption expectation and consumption behavior in our country, and the method is more traditional. The consumption function is used as an analysis tool and the empirical analysis of time or cross section data is used to study the correlation between variables. The data of consumption expectation psychology are analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, and the evaluation model of "expected consumption structure" is constructed by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the effect of consumption expectation on consumption structure is explored, so that the conclusions can be of certain significance.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
First, the gradual transformation of the consumption structure of rural residents has been transformed from the basic survival of food and clothing consumption to the pursuit of personal development and other high-level needs.
Second, the consumption expectation of rural residents is influenced by many factors, which will affect the formation of consumption structure. Among them, the expectation of family income growth and the expectation of household consumption expenditure have a great influence on the consumption structure, and the weight of the consumption structure is 0.359 and 0.279 respectively, which exceeds the right overlap of the other three factors.
Third, the expectation of family income growth is the most important factor affecting the consumption structure. Relative to other factors, it has the greatest impact on the consumption structure. It mainly influences the consumption structure by four aspects of the future household total income, income source, confidence in future life and fixed income.
Fourth, there are many uncertain factors in the life of rural residents. The future consumption expenditure is affected by the expectation of many aspects of expenditure. Marriage, educational development, health care, enjoyment of service, future pension, red and white happiness will be an important aspect of the future expenditure of rural residents, and have a certain impact on the current consumption.
Fifth, the policy expectation factors have a certain impact on the consumption structure of rural residents, but the degree of influence still needs to be strengthened.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F323.8

【参考文献】